Ford to Halve F-150 Lightning Production Next Year

Ahh, spreadsheets using flawed numbers are my favorite type of anti-EV posting.

When we talk about installing a charger, we are actually talking about installing an EVSE. The CHARGER is built into the car for AC charging (for DC Fast charging, the charger IS the unit at the station). And EVs come with an EVSE plug stock (earlier cars only plugged into a standard 120v outlet for level 1 charging, but newer ones are dual voltage to provide for 240v Level 2 charging). So the install at your home only has to be a standard NEMA 14-50 240v outlet:

Cost can be as little as $100. If you want a dedicated EVSE, like I have, it'll be more money, as the EVSE costs between $300-500 itself, then there's the installation costs. BUT, most electric companies now have rebates for EVSE installation, as do some states and municipalities. As examples, BGE here in Maryland has a $750 rebate towards the installation of an EVSE. My installation cost $780, and I got $750 of that back from BGE. So my total cost for the install was $30. Eversource in CT has a credit for up to $1000 for the cost of an EVSE installation, which means for most customers, it'll be free.

I drive about 1000 miles a month on average and at my electric rate of 10c/kWh, it costs me about $21-24 a month to drive that far. It's as easy to calculate how much of your electric bill is going towards driving as it is calculating how much of your gasoline bill is going towards personal vs business driving. But go ahead and make it harder for yourself. The EV tells you how many kWh it's used so you simply multiply that use by your electric rate and viola, you have how much of your electric bill is dedicated to driving.

As for the statements earlier about no one wanting EVs, that's not true.

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q3-2023-ev-sales/

"Electric vehicle (EV) sales volumes set another record in Q3, as total sales of battery-powered vehicles jumped past 300,000 for the first time in the U.S. market. Year-to-date EV sales through September reached just over 873,000, putting the market firmly on track to surpass 1 million for the first time ever.

Total EV sales in Q3, according to an estimate from Kelley Blue Book, hit 313,086, a 49.8% increase from the same period one year ago and an increase from the 298,039 sold in Q2."

Yes, EV sales were up 50% from last year and increasing every quarter. Growth is not exponential, as a couple manufacturers thought, but sales are still growing pretty rapidly.

nderwater said:

In reply to Spearfishin :

I'm curious -- do you think your company would have rejected the idea of a hybrid, like the Maverick?  Are they opposed to anything that's not a traditional work truck?  Or is it EVs specifically that they dismiss?

I dont know much about trucks/how the lighting compares, but when you look at the Hybrid, its only available on the Lariat and higher.  So it starts at ~$18k more ($15k for truck + $3300 for powertrain) for a similar vehicle.  That seems like its a tough sell to a manufacturer for a work vehicle.

Of course I do know enough about trucks to know that those prices do not reflect reality in any way, which is unfortunate.

In reply to Chris_V :

The problem is that OEMs are trying to build over 1M when the demand is only 350k. 
 

Like for the F150- one plant typically makes about 300k vehicles a year. I expect EVs to be a little slower, so call the f150 plant designed for 200k. So one plant is set up for about 2/3 of all US ev sales. If the f150 ev was designed to be assembled on the main line, hardly anyone would notice that production is being tweaked to match demand. But since it's on its own...

alfadriver said:

In reply to Chris_V :

The problem is that OEMs are trying to build over 1M when the demand is only 350k. 
 

Like for the F150- one plant typically makes about 300k vehicles a year. I expect EVs to be a little slower, so call the f150 plant designed for 200k. So one plant is set up for about 2/3 of all US ev sales. If the f150 ev was designed to be assembled on the main line, hardly anyone would notice that production is being tweaked to match demand. But since it's on its own...

Yes, Ford thought that demand would be exponential. But that fact that it's not exponential does not mean demand is slowing, as many here keep trying to say. Demand is still increasing, as the market watchdogs are showing. That's my gripe with headlines like this and the conversations by anti-EV folks. Ford halving their production does not mean demand is slowing. It just not tripling quarterly like Ford had hoped. Some manufacturers are seeing 200% sales growth year over year, however, as that article I posted pointed out. But in general, growth is linear and has not come close to peaking yet. The claims that everybody that wanted an EV has one are false and need to stop.

In reply to Chris_V :

But demand isn't expanding as fast as all ev enthusiasts think it is. Otherwise, the OEMs would be a lot closer in their estimates of projected demand. 
 

So instead of "nobody wants an ev", not as many as people claim want one. For some very good reasons. 

alfadriver said:

In reply to Chris_V :

But demand isn't expanding as fast as all ev enthusiasts think it is. Otherwise, the OEMs would be a lot closer in their estimates of projected demand. 
 

So instead of "nobody wants an ev", not as many as people claim want one. For some very good reasons. 

No, demand is happening as fast as most EV enthusiasts think it is, as we deal with Facts. Ford did not deal with facts and thought they could simply scale up to Tesla levels of sales out of the gate. Has nothing to do with demand softening or demand slowing, which are the two arguments anti-EV people are making, even in this thread.

The other issue is, as always, pricing. Ford's dealers did stupid things with ADMs which turned a lot of buyers off. Not because they don't want an EV, but because they don't want to pay stupid markups. So using that as a way of saying "not as many people want one" is BS. Look at Bolt sales. The car was slated to be discontinued in September to make way for high priced Silverado EVs to be built at the same plant. Demand was so high for the $26k Bolt that they extended production through October, then through December, and now it's getting a second generation. Price matters as much as anything.

The Bolt and the Lighting shouldn't even be mentioned in the same paragraph. They are completely different markets. Their buyers have ZERO in common. 

All the arguments about uses cases and other bullE36 M3 aside, I think the point regarding the true production is an important one:

Ford isn't cutting lighting production, they are cutting targets for increased production in 2024.  The article's headline is misleading.

Instead of trying to sell 7x as may as 2023, they are shooting for 3.5x

In reply to Chris_V :

You single out ford, but they are not the only ones cutting production.  Someone convinced all of the players they could all get in at the same time, and that was wrong. Make as many conclusions as you please, and keep moving the goal posts, but production is expanding as fast as projected. 
 

And there are still some key issues with EVs that need solved. Feel free to ignore them, or chastise those who point them out, but that does not make them go away magically. 
 

In reply to Chris_V :

Good points on both ends; they are selling more than the anti-EVers say they are but less that the EV zealots think they will.

The one big elephant in the room is the subsidies; As the market share grows the subsidies are going to go away.  To quote something I've heard often. "If someone wants an EV that's great but I shouldn't have to help pay for it"......this sentiment will grow as the market share grows.

There are only two sticking points with EVs the main one being price, and then secondarily the range. I personally don't see them getting cheaper.

EVs were foisted upon the market as a "save the planet" measure; they work well for many people but in general there weren't alot of people asking for them. That in and of itself caused the anti-EV movement. 

ProDarwin said:

All the arguments about uses cases and other bullE36 M3 aside, I think the point regarding the true production is an important one:

Ford isn't cutting lighting production, they are cutting targets for increased production in 2024.  The article's headline is misleading.

Instead of trying to sell 7x as may as 2023, they are shooting for 3.5x

 

 

Goahdurnit take your level headed thinkin' and keen eye readin' and leave this here thread. 

This is an EV thread, and we're here to yell!

I think there's a simpler answer.  To steal a line from the 90s:  "it's the economy, stupid".  Inflation, high interest rates, layoffs, all of those tend to cause people to put off large purchases.  I keep hearing that car sales in general are down, and EVs are more expensive up front than ICE vehicles so they're down more.

In reply to codrus (Forum Supporter) :

If I weren't sitting in a massively sold out and over priced cruise right now, I might agree with you. But millions of people are going on a lot of expensive vacations right now. Wait- they have been for the last year and are scheduled for the next year and a half. And this for just a vacation. 
So it may be partially that, or it may not. 

Keith its awesome that an EV works for you, it works for me too as we have a PHEV in the fleet.  It was the perfect vehicle for the weekend, and it was the only vehicle that the wife and I toured around in.  I did have to spend around $600 on the 240V 50A charger (i guessed I missed the sale on the $100 ones) and the associated wiring and plugs.  I already had 50A of service split to the garage the wife parks in.  Had I not, I would have incurred more cost.  Unfortunately, Wisconsin and WeEnergies does not have any tax incentives to put in a charger, we did it out of the goodness of our hearts.  

The point of an excel sheet is showing that using national averages, its a long row to hoe.  Colorado is a good place for EVs, as you stated your electricity cost is less than half the national average, whereas your gasoline cost is only 15% less than the national average.  That really helps make the case.  Population wise, though, Colorado is only about 2% of the USA population, so we can't really draw a conclusion that what works in Colorado works for the other 98% of the country.  

Since the accusation of flawed numbers has been made, can you please provide research/fact based numbers that show a significantly more aggressive payback curve for the F150 Lightning?  I did some reasearch but it was primarily just based on common sense.  

nderwater said:

In reply to Spearfishin :

I'm curious -- do you think your company would have rejected the idea of a hybrid, like the Maverick?  Are they opposed to anything that's not a traditional work truck?  Or is it EVs specifically that they dismiss?

We use/need full size trucks on the field side, and the office types are far too accustomed to their mid-high trim Grand Cherokees and such to be seen in a Maverick, so that's just not a realistic possibility. 

I do think they try to stick with non-hybrids as I know there are hybrid power trains available in a few of the more common vehicles we purchase for jobs not in the field and I've never seen one at our office that was a hybrid. 

In reply to 93gsxturbo :

Most of the country is covered by charging system rebates/grants/incentives. https://briteswitch.com/news/ev-charger-rebate-trends-for-2023.php The $100 installation I mentioned is the typical cost for the NEMA 14-50 outlet and wiring (that I pictured). Since most modern EVs (including the Lightning, I do believe) come with dual voltage EVSE cords, standard, that's all you need for Level 2 charging. If your EV doesn't come with a dual level cord, you could use this to plug into a NEMA 14-50 outlet: https://ev-lectron.com/products/lectron-portable-electric-car-charger-32a?variant=6771149799470

In reply to Chris_V :

You need to be careful when talking about rebates and credits for charging station installs. There are lots of programs out there, and you could probably link hundreds of  programs nation wide. But go try to get the credit. Most have very little funding, and are first come, first serve. Try today, and you will find that almost all are on hold pending funding for next year. My company put together a rebate team to gather data from dozens of utilities on rebates available. They gave us break downs on residential, multi family, commercial, and school installs, and there were some great rebates listed- especially multi family and schools. By the time they got all of the info together, the money was gone. We are now waiting for next year, telling our clients they need to be ready with projects as soon as funding is available. 
 

You are right, they don't make residential chargers, they are charging stations. But you still need one for level 2 charging. You have one, it's the white box/cord/connector in your pic. Most cars do not come with those. If yours did, you probably paid for it when you bought the car, or it's something unique to Chevy. There are numerous manufacturers that make residential EV charging stations. I couldn't find sales data overall, but just Wallbox alone, which primarily does resi stations- had revenue of $160 million. Are you saying that they sold $160 million worth of charging stations that no one needed to buy? If so, they made ice boxes to Eskimos guy look like an amateur. The 14-50 receptacle is just a receptacle, the parts are cheap. It's the same as you would plug a dryer into. Some company even makes one with a transfer switch so that you can dry your clothes or charge your car from the same receptacle, assuming you don't have the service to do both. It does cost money to install the receptacle, especially if you don't have the capacity and need to upgrade the service. Which could be a huge problem for many people. Not only is it costly, but bringing it up to the current code could mean a complete relocation of the service as well, since new code in many places no longer allows gas and electric services next to each other. The good news is that the market is responding with solutions. Load shed panels or devices that allow you to "overload" your existing service when adding an EV charging station. If you draw more power than your service is rated for, they automatically cut power to your car. You still may not be able to charge while baking cookies, but you would be fine most of the time. Those solutions aren't cheap either, but much less than a service upgrade and relocation. 
 

In the end, just like EV's, the total cost depends a lot on each buyers unique situation. On one end, there are people with a spare 50A receptacle in the garage. They just need to hang the charging station on the wall. Others would need to upgrade their whole service. Most lie somewhere in between. 

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

dyintorace said:

As Toyman has pointed out, if they'd build them as working trucks, they might be able to sell a bunch of them to companies that need new work trucks. We have friends who own one of the largest electrician companies in town. They CONSTANTLY have trucks down for maintenance. If they could start replacing ICE trucks with EV trucks economically, it would be a no-brainer (especially since they are in the electricity business!). 

EVs still have ball joints and suspension and steering parts to wear out or fail and they still have brakes and it looks like EVs will need brakes far more frequently than gasoline vehicles because they rarely get used, so they turn into balls of rust and the pads get cheesegratered if they don't simply seize in place.

They still have cooling units that will corrode and leak every few years.

They still need tires and need the HVAC system functional.

 

Engine is just a small part of what makes operating a truck so expensive.

One thing I learned from discussions with a tire company is that we can expect EV tires to wear out much faster. EV tires have a much larger effect on efficiency then on ICE vehicles and in order to deal with this we need a lower rolling resistance tire. The problem with getting to this is that they need additives such as higher silica content. This causes the tires to wear out faster. Also due to lack of ICE noise, the tires need to be quieter so they often end up needing new technologies which are more expensive. 

In reply to Boost_Crazy :

Thanks for the thoughtful insight and reply. 

If you were actually able to purchase a $40k Lightning in Apr 2022, you might've had a 4.5% loan:

Just 11 months later in Mar 2023 the price had jumped by $20k (50%) for the exact same truck and interest rates were 6.5% too:

That's not going to work for a base model, short range truck. And I'm not including any dealer mark ups, or the fact that the lowest trims are essentially needles in a haystack.

Make them affordable and available and buyers will come. But the business case is probably pretty bleak with high interest rates.

I think some of this is just them finding the price level. EV trucks are a whole new category, so they were kind of guessing when they priced it to start with. Turns out they guessed low initially, so they raised the prices several times. Now it looks like they went too high, so they are dropping again. Eventually it will settle at a price that balances demand and production. Hopefully for Ford, that's a price they can make money at.

"The worth of a thing is the price it will bring."

Boost_Crazy said:

In reply to Chris_V :

You are right, they don't make residential chargers, they are charging stations. But you still need one for level 2 charging. You have one, it's the white box/cord/connector in your pic. Most cars do not come with those. If yours did, you probably paid for it when you bought the car, or it's something unique to Chevy. There are numerous manufacturers that make residential EV charging stations.

I don't know about other manufacturers but when I was at Audi most cars didn't "come with" those chargers but it was an option box on the order sheet and it was shipped along side the car just like floormats or roof rack crossbars. Meaning, they often were stolen by crappy salesmen for other cars. Still, there are Audi part numbers for those level 2 chargers and it wasn't crazy priced (for Audi stuff). I think the level 1 was $500 and the level 2 was $900-1k. But I haven't worked there in a few years so that may have changed. The knowledgeable buyers would get that stuff included in the sale price of the car and the less-than-knowledgeable ones would be yelling at the parts desk or service writer a few days after purchase.

Our PHEV Wrangler "came with" a level 1 charger that would charge its paltry 17kw battery in about 12 hours - pretty sorry.  I installed a Level 2 charger in the garage but I had to buy it out of pocket.  Ma Mopar will let you add one to the option sheet for around $600 and finance it for 84 months just like fender flares or floor mats but to say a Level 2 charger "comes with" is disingenuous.  

We went with the Grizzl-E because of its rugged and simple construction and moderate price.  Just like buying aftermarket bumpers for your Jeep vs the factory upgraded ones.  

I bought my level 2 charger for $250, open box but never installed or anything. I installed it myself for free, but if I had to buy the wire and conduit, figure another $100 in materials on top of that. Most people aren't going to do their own household wiring, but it doesn't have to be crazy expensive. Back when I had my Leaf, I built my EVSE from a kit I found online, and it worked great for nearly four years.

Interestingly, I was visiting a friend with my truck who mentioned he had an EV outlet in the garage. He's never owned an EV and doesn't have any plans to, but he said that code required a suitable outlet for charging in all new construction homes in his city. I plugged my truck's EVSE right into the outlet and charged up overnight.

Thats awesome they are building high amp garage outlets into new builds in your area.  Wife and I were house shopping the Milwaukee burbs and even some of the 1.2-1.5 Million places we looked at had 3 sad looking outlets and one bulb in their 4+ car garages.  I get that not everyone is a car guy (or a bike guy, or a woodworker, or a....) but would it kill them to put in a few more lights and outlets?