fidelity101 wrote:
60,000 in 3 years is terrible, for Toyota.
(speaking from a business perspective)
Bull E36 M3! Note that not one Scion model sold more than 20k units in the USA for 2013 or 2014, which are the only two full calendar years that the FRS has been on sale. They made this car a Scion because it's low volume niche car and that's their low volume niche brand. There is nothing wrong or unprofitable with low volume niche products, but they do have to be approached and handled differently. So "from a business perspective" that explains why it's not actually a Toyota, as so many people had originally hoped.
Quite simply: If Toyota actually considers less than your randomly selected unrealistic expectation of 60k US sales per year to be "terrible" for a niche market sports car, then speaking purely "from a business perspective", they had absolutely no business entering the sports car niche market in the first place. Period.
The fact that the FRZ/BRZ seem overpriced compared to what you get for your money in other higher volume market cars, just like any low volume sports car, tells me that "from a business perspective" Toyota and Subaru knew exactly what kind of US sales figures to expect. If there are any significant shortcoming relative to their sales projections, I'm pretty sure it's not coming from the US market.
Swank Force One wrote:
alfadriver wrote:
The problem is that in terms of cost to make, it's more S2000 than Miata. The Miata has one HUGE advantage- it uses an engine that's mass produced in the multiple hundreds of thousands range. Especially the NC- where I suspect that the duratec/MZR engine sold well over a million a year for quite a while.
Whereas the BRZ/FRS has a totally unique engine that's part subaru and part toyota, and is only sold in this car. I bet that most of the parts are unique to this engine, too. So while it won't have the same high end parts that the S2000 needed to hit 9000rpm, the relaive cost of the engine will be really, really close to that. And the engine is the reason the S2000 was $10k more than a Miata.
20k/year may be enough to pay the $1B to design and develop the engine as well as the extra cost to make a unique motor. But I don't see that based on it's market cost. If Subaru starts using that engine someplace else, it would help a ton (I don't see Toyota doing that at all).
Still, for what it is, 20k a year is really, really good. Better than the Miata, and slightly better than the Solstace pair were at their best.
It's not a unique motor. It's used in other subarus. Just because it was the first to use that motor doesn't mean it's the only one.
I had not heard that- which ones?
(and more importantly, at what volume?)
That's good news for these cars.
pinchvalve wrote:
For comparison, Ford hopes to move about 5,000 of the Fiesta ST per year in the US. Granted, it is not a unique platform, but the market for small sporty cars must not be very big. 20,000 per year is probably the high end of the current market.
To me, that's not a good comarison at all.
Both the Focus and Fiesta specials are 99% same chassis.
And more importantly, both the Fiesta and Focus specials use engines that are heavily massed produced- especially the Focus- the ST motor is in the Explorer (for a little while longer), Edge, Escape, and Fusion. For the Fiesta- the engine is in the Escape and Fusion. For the most part, the ST's are a simple engine swap. Heck, if the RS gets the engine I expect it will, it will be the new Explorer, some Lincolns, and the Mustang engine- again, probably numbers in 100k's.
(which also kind of points out that the cost difference between the non to the ST's are larely profit, but I'm fine with that... 
)
Those cars are easier and cheaper than Miatas, which means that even if they sell 3000, it's easy to cover the costs.
Will wrote:
I'd bet that the majority of people on this board who said they wanted one really meant that they wanted to buy one used.
Should be a fine choice four or five years from now.
Speaking of used... here is the one I'd want ('14 black BR-Z Limited, 6 speed) for $4k off the Build It Now price on the Subaru website with only 4k miles on it in Brandywine MD.
http://www.carmax.com/enus/view-car/default.html?id=11556503&AVi=0&No=0&Rp=R&D=50&zip=19406&N=4294963007+4294961603&Q=215ed1dc-ebc8-4eb2-9e2f-2fccd23a04f4&Ep=search:results:results%20page
alfadriver wrote:
Swank Force One wrote:
alfadriver wrote:
The problem is that in terms of cost to make, it's more S2000 than Miata. The Miata has one HUGE advantage- it uses an engine that's mass produced in the multiple hundreds of thousands range. Especially the NC- where I suspect that the duratec/MZR engine sold well over a million a year for quite a while.
Whereas the BRZ/FRS has a totally unique engine that's part subaru and part toyota, and is only sold in this car. I bet that most of the parts are unique to this engine, too. So while it won't have the same high end parts that the S2000 needed to hit 9000rpm, the relaive cost of the engine will be really, really close to that. And the engine is the reason the S2000 was $10k more than a Miata.
20k/year may be enough to pay the $1B to design and develop the engine as well as the extra cost to make a unique motor. But I don't see that based on it's market cost. If Subaru starts using that engine someplace else, it would help a ton (I don't see Toyota doing that at all).
Still, for what it is, 20k a year is really, really good. Better than the Miata, and slightly better than the Solstace pair were at their best.
It's not a unique motor. It's used in other subarus. Just because it was the first to use that motor doesn't mean it's the only one.
I had not heard that- which ones?
(and more importantly, at what volume?)
That's good news for these cars.
Pretty much... all 4 cylinder Subarus.
NOHOME
UltraDork
1/28/15 10:17 a.m.
Swank Force One wrote:
alfadriver wrote:
Swank Force One wrote:
alfadriver wrote:
The problem is that in terms of cost to make, it's more S2000 than Miata. The Miata has one HUGE advantage- it uses an engine that's mass produced in the multiple hundreds of thousands range. Especially the NC- where I suspect that the duratec/MZR engine sold well over a million a year for quite a while.
Whereas the BRZ/FRS has a totally unique engine that's part subaru and part toyota, and is only sold in this car. I bet that most of the parts are unique to this engine, too. So while it won't have the same high end parts that the S2000 needed to hit 9000rpm, the relaive cost of the engine will be really, really close to that. And the engine is the reason the S2000 was $10k more than a Miata.
20k/year may be enough to pay the $1B to design and develop the engine as well as the extra cost to make a unique motor. But I don't see that based on it's market cost. If Subaru starts using that engine someplace else, it would help a ton (I don't see Toyota doing that at all).
Still, for what it is, 20k a year is really, really good. Better than the Miata, and slightly better than the Solstace pair were at their best.
It's not a unique motor. It's used in other subarus. Just because it was the first to use that motor doesn't mean it's the only one.
I had not heard that- which ones?
(and more importantly, at what volume?)
That's good news for these cars.
Pretty much... all 4 cylinder Subarus.
I don't believe that to be true. The Frisbee engine was designed for and is unique to the twins. The flat 4 configuration is used across the board, but I don't think much transfers from other Subaru models. This uniqueness to the model is one of the things I don't like about the car and one of the reasons why enthusiast will not embrace the Twins in the used car market as a hot-rod platform; lack of used drivetrain parts that can be sourced for cheap and offered up to the Hooning Gods. Currently, any used engines are snapped up by the people who need to replace a blowed up factory engine after the factory has turned down the warranty. No bargains to be had.
FA20D
Subaru FA20D
Wiki Quote:
"The FA20D features both direct and port injection (Toyota's D-4S injection system) and Subaru AVCS variable valve timing system. It is used in the Subaru BRZ, and is identified by a Toyota engine family code known as the 4U-GSE, which is installed in the Toyota 86 and the Scion FR-S.[6] According to Subaru, 0W-20 oil is recommended."
yamaha
MegaDork
1/28/15 10:18 a.m.
Swank Force One wrote:
What better cars are out there for $25k?
S550 Mustang EB/6sp combo at $25,300 I've driven one and an FRS back to back....stock v stock, the s550 is no joke. Slight edge to the FRS in terms of being more nimble, but the s550 gets all that back and then some for being better poised handling wise, more powerful, more practical(did I just say that?), and fit and finish wise, the s550 is a nicer place to be than the FRS. While it weighs more, it hides its weight very very well. 
Add the EB performance pack to the s550 if you factor in the market adjustments that scion/subaru dealers are tacking on to the frisbee.
jv8
New Reader
1/28/15 10:18 a.m.
Why do all discussions of the BRZ/FRS turn into new vs used? We get it. Used cars are a better deal and this forum leans towards used.
But I hope somebody buys new cars otherwise the supply of interesting used cars will dry up!
yamaha
MegaDork
1/28/15 10:21 a.m.
In reply to jv8:
That is why I wouldn't mind buying new....but it'll be a dealer special order if I do.
Toyota may, or may not have missed the mark with they're sales projections. When the Scion xB and xA were introduced they expected the mix to be 80% xAs and 20% xBs. In fact the ratio turned out to be exactly the opposite. They also missed the demographics, too. They expected a very high percentage would be first time car owners (i.e. younger) but the sales manager at my local dealer admitted that their clientele consisted of about "one-third younger folks and two-thirds people like her" as he pointed at my gray haired spouse.
Swank Force One wrote:
alfadriver wrote:
Swank Force One wrote:
alfadriver wrote:
The problem is that in terms of cost to make, it's more S2000 than Miata. The Miata has one HUGE advantage- it uses an engine that's mass produced in the multiple hundreds of thousands range. Especially the NC- where I suspect that the duratec/MZR engine sold well over a million a year for quite a while.
Whereas the BRZ/FRS has a totally unique engine that's part subaru and part toyota, and is only sold in this car. I bet that most of the parts are unique to this engine, too. So while it won't have the same high end parts that the S2000 needed to hit 9000rpm, the relaive cost of the engine will be really, really close to that. And the engine is the reason the S2000 was $10k more than a Miata.
20k/year may be enough to pay the $1B to design and develop the engine as well as the extra cost to make a unique motor. But I don't see that based on it's market cost. If Subaru starts using that engine someplace else, it would help a ton (I don't see Toyota doing that at all).
Still, for what it is, 20k a year is really, really good. Better than the Miata, and slightly better than the Solstace pair were at their best.
It's not a unique motor. It's used in other subarus. Just because it was the first to use that motor doesn't mean it's the only one.
I had not heard that- which ones?
(and more importantly, at what volume?)
That's good news for these cars.
Pretty much... all 4 cylinder Subarus.
I thought those were different. The BRZ is a FA20D, the Imprezas 'n stuff are FB20B. Different power, different bore/stroke, no direction injection, etc.
Everyone keeps saying it's 60K units, but that seem to be in the US. What are the Global sales? I don't see how a sports car that is outselling the Miata can be considered a failure. Also would owners want to see 100,000 units a year sold? I'd think not seeing yourself coming in the opposite direction every day was a bonus, not a failure.
Driven5
HalfDork
1/28/15 10:40 a.m.
In reply to DeadSkunk:
The big difference between the xA/xB and the FR-S being that the former were trying to tap into/create new markets rather than entering an existing known market. Thus there was a lot more historical data available on sports car sales trends in the USA, making it much easier to get reasonably accurate projections.
ProDarwin wrote:
Swank Force One wrote:
alfadriver wrote:
Swank Force One wrote:
alfadriver wrote:
The problem is that in terms of cost to make, it's more S2000 than Miata. The Miata has one HUGE advantage- it uses an engine that's mass produced in the multiple hundreds of thousands range. Especially the NC- where I suspect that the duratec/MZR engine sold well over a million a year for quite a while.
Whereas the BRZ/FRS has a totally unique engine that's part subaru and part toyota, and is only sold in this car. I bet that most of the parts are unique to this engine, too. So while it won't have the same high end parts that the S2000 needed to hit 9000rpm, the relaive cost of the engine will be really, really close to that. And the engine is the reason the S2000 was $10k more than a Miata.
20k/year may be enough to pay the $1B to design and develop the engine as well as the extra cost to make a unique motor. But I don't see that based on it's market cost. If Subaru starts using that engine someplace else, it would help a ton (I don't see Toyota doing that at all).
Still, for what it is, 20k a year is really, really good. Better than the Miata, and slightly better than the Solstace pair were at their best.
It's not a unique motor. It's used in other subarus. Just because it was the first to use that motor doesn't mean it's the only one.
I had not heard that- which ones?
(and more importantly, at what volume?)
That's good news for these cars.
Pretty much... all 4 cylinder Subarus.
I thought those were different. The BRZ is a FA20D, the Imprezas 'n stuff are FB20B. Different power, different bore/stroke, no direction injection, etc.
FA20F. I think i exaggerated when i said "all 4 bangers." But they're in the WRX and Forester state-side, and they'll be expanding into everything within a year or two i'd bet.
Swank Force One wrote:
FA20F. I think i exaggerated when i said "all 4 bangers." But they're in the WRX and Forester state-side, and they'll be expanding into everything within a year or two i'd bet.
Still, not the same motor like Alfa is talking about. Different pistons/rods/injection system. Heads?
I think if the BRZ had the FA20F, it might be more appealing to many people :)
I don't quite understand why they used that goofy engine anyway and didn't use the exact same engine as an Impreza, or even better, a Toyota I4 of some sort.
Keep in mind the MR2 sold about 130k copies in North America over the course of 12 years so it's more successful than the MR2. The 240Z sold about 150k cars in North america in just 3 years, the Z31 sold 150k cars in North America in just 2 years, the Z32 took 6 years to sell 150K cars. Japanese car sales in North America are strong for appliance cars, Japanese halo cars just don't sell that well in North America. We also tend to favor in retrospect the cars that didn't sell as well.
Looks like the C6 vette only averaged around 30k units per year on average, C5 sales were only slightly higher on average but more consistent. Interestingly looks like the 240Z outsold the C3 vette almost 2 to one per year whereas the Z31 only outsold the vette 1.5 to one versus it's C4 counterpart.
ProDarwin wrote:
Swank Force One wrote:
FA20F. I think i exaggerated when i said "all 4 bangers." But they're in the WRX and Forester state-side, and they'll be expanding into everything within a year or two i'd bet.
Still, not the same motor like Alfa is talking about. Different pistons/rods/injection system. Heads?
I think if the BRZ had the FA20F, it might be more appealing to many people :)
I don't quite understand why they used that goofy engine anyway and didn't use the *exact* same engine as an Impreza, or even better, a Toyota I4 of some sort.
Same bore, stroke, is direct injection, etc.
FA motors share many many many parts.
Swank Force One wrote:
ProDarwin wrote:
Swank Force One wrote:
FA20F. I think i exaggerated when i said "all 4 bangers." But they're in the WRX and Forester state-side, and they'll be expanding into everything within a year or two i'd bet.
Still, not the same motor like Alfa is talking about. Different pistons/rods/injection system. Heads?
I think if the BRZ had the FA20F, it might be more appealing to many people :)
I don't quite understand why they used that goofy engine anyway and didn't use the *exact* same engine as an Impreza, or even better, a Toyota I4 of some sort.
Same bore, stroke, is direct injection, etc.
FA motors share many many many parts.
The important parts to share are the block, pistons, and heads. Those are the really expensive parts. If they are not the same, well...
Driven5
HalfDork
1/28/15 11:43 a.m.
The Miata doesn't use the exact same engine either. It too is a lightly modified variant. Variations are not a problem, as the Miata engine is a unique variant too. It's the base architecture that is expensive to develop. As long as there is sharing at that level, then it's just one more of an ever growing list of non-issues being blown wildly out of proportion here.
Driven5 wrote:
The Miata doesn't use the exact same engine either. It too is a lightly modified variant. Variations are not a problem, as the Miata engine is a unique variant too. It's the base architecture that is expensive to develop. As long as there is sharing at that level, then it's just one more of an ever growing list of non-issues being blown wildly out of proportion here.
I don't think it's out of proportion, as how unique the motor is has a big imact of whether or not 20k cars/year is good or not.
If it's very unique, 20k/yr may be pushing it. If it's mildly unique, 20k could work. If it's mostly the same as cars that sell +100k/year, then 20k is probably a wild success.
It's a big factor in how good or bad 20k/year is.
