Okay I've spent way too much time lately on the pooter. Especially hemmings. Especially dealer listings....are these numbers duh, to be embraced for the market as it is? Not that I'm flush with $$$$ , some of this looks possible/sane, but there's others that make you go Hmmmm?
I've been tracking values of Integra type Rs for maybe a year now.
The wacky values are still there on BAT, but the rest of the market seems to be flat to slightly down.
Seeing something similar in a real estate market i'm tracking as well-the high end stuff is still going quickly, but the meh properties are hanging around longer and probably selling for cheaper.
The skyline market has doubled to tripled the last 3 years. I don't know if it will ease up, there are a lot less of them coming up to auction in japan and it seems like most of the ones that will end up here have already been imported.
But am i seeing 5 to 10 k increases in these listings? just wondering.....sorry but some of this junk is way too enticing....late
I don't follow the collector car market much but cars prices in general are coming down. Quickly! I've posted this before, Manheim (largest wholesale car reseller in the US) publishes their used car value index every month. It's been interesting tracking it through the COVID times. Current chart does not have the second half of Oct. added yet.
I'm only looking at a pretty small sliver of it, but the normal used car market seems to be falling off a cliff as we speak, starting maybe a month or two ago but really ramping up recently. I assume the collector car industry will follow to some extent.
It's important to note that bat and c&b are not the market. It seems to be softening to me.
I know it sucks to have the money available but prices seem high, patience is a PITA. I may be optimistic but I think an adjustment is in order. Keep looking but the deal you find next week could passed by the one you see in 6 months. In the meantime the rates on 3 and 6 month CDs is crazy high. 4% with no risk and the ability to cash out with almost no penalty is a great place to park cash short term.
In reply to WillG80 :
That only tracks the wsale marketplace at Manheim. Admittedly, they're the largest auction house in the nation, but they still only comprise about 55% of the wsale market, and those values don't always translate to retail. Wholesale values started trending downwards in July, but retail just started to move seriously in the last 4-6 weeks.
porschenut said:I know it sucks to have the money available but prices seem high, patience is a PITA. I may be optimistic but I think an adjustment is in order. Keep looking but the deal you find next week could passed by the one you see in 6 months. In the meantime the rates on 3 and 6 month CDs is crazy high. 4% with no risk and the ability to cash out with almost no penalty is a great place to park cash short term.
4% is historically pretty good, but with inflation at more than 8%, you're only mitigating part of your loss. Still better than keeping it in a bank account.
calteg said:In reply to WillG80 :
That only tracks the wsale marketplace at Manheim. Admittedly, they're the largest auction house in the nation, but they still only comprise about 55% of the wsale market, and those values don't always translate to retail. Wholesale values started trending downwards in July, but retail just started to move seriously in the last 4-6 weeks.
porschenut said:I know it sucks to have the money available but prices seem high, patience is a PITA. I may be optimistic but I think an adjustment is in order. Keep looking but the deal you find next week could passed by the one you see in 6 months. In the meantime the rates on 3 and 6 month CDs is crazy high. 4% with no risk and the ability to cash out with almost no penalty is a great place to park cash short term.
4% is historically pretty good, but with inflation at more than 8%, you're only mitigating part of your loss. Still better than keeping it in a bank account.
The inflation number quoted is a metric that doesn't apply to most of us. Yes energy costs went up and food is going up. But not by as much as that number. And the car market is not going up anymore so since the money is car money this sounds like a worthy option.
It's a nutty market right now. There was a lot of speculation, opportunistic pricing and cheap money the last few years and as things slow down that's slowing too. But not everybody knows it. So prices are all over the place. I don't shop for cars much anymore but I'm constantly looking at bikes. And as those prices return to normal, you still see some asking for the peak prices of a year ago. If there's a recession coming, and it sure looks like it, that will be the time to buy. Prices will plummet. They always do.
Since my fun car was totaled back in 2020, I have been on the sidelines waiting for normalcy. I think my patience will finally pay off in the next 6 months or so.
Peabody said:It's a nutty market right now. There was a lot of speculation, opportunistic pricing and cheap money the last few years and as things slow down that's slowing too. But not everybody knows it. So prices are all over the place. I don't shop for cars much anymore but I'm constantly looking at bikes. And as those prices return to normal, you still see some asking for the peak prices of a year ago. If there's a recession coming, and it sure looks like it, that will be the time to buy. Prices will plummet. They always do.
Yes but here you are being rational again. The one thing I learned when the pandemic hit is that rationality went out the window. The fundamentals and history both say you're right. But I quit trusting both in March 2020. So what do I believe then? I don't offer advice because I've been wrong so much. I have a minor in economics and read the Wall Street Journal almost daily. It interests me. But when the pandemic happened I gave a friend advice on buying a car that was 180 out of phase. I told her to sit tight - the prices would come down soon.
A 401 CJ said:Peabody said:It's a nutty market right now. There was a lot of speculation, opportunistic pricing and cheap money the last few years and as things slow down that's slowing too. But not everybody knows it. So prices are all over the place. I don't shop for cars much anymore but I'm constantly looking at bikes. And as those prices return to normal, you still see some asking for the peak prices of a year ago. If there's a recession coming, and it sure looks like it, that will be the time to buy. Prices will plummet. They always do.
Yes but here you are being rational again. The one thing I learned when the pandemic hit is that rationality went out the window. The fundamentals and history both say you're right. But I quit trusting both in March 2020. So what do I believe then? I don't offer advice because I've been wrong so much. I have a minor in economics and read the Wall Street Journal almost daily. It interests me. But when the pandemic happened I gave a friend advice on buying a car that was 180 out of phase. I told her to sit tight - the prices would come down soon.
I think that the pandemic was a once-a-century black swan where otherwise rational advice went out the window. It's not that the normal rules of supply and demand were suspended, only that so many new events happened so quickly that the interactions and outcomes were really hard to predict.
Predicting what will happen in the current economic environment seems much more straightforward. You're never gonna get it 100% correct, but you're probably not going to be 180 out of phase either.
CrustyRedXpress said:A 401 CJ said:Peabody said:It's a nutty market right now. There was a lot of speculation, opportunistic pricing and cheap money the last few years and as things slow down that's slowing too. But not everybody knows it. So prices are all over the place. I don't shop for cars much anymore but I'm constantly looking at bikes. And as those prices return to normal, you still see some asking for the peak prices of a year ago. If there's a recession coming, and it sure looks like it, that will be the time to buy. Prices will plummet. They always do.
Yes but here you are being rational again. The one thing I learned when the pandemic hit is that rationality went out the window. The fundamentals and history both say you're right. But I quit trusting both in March 2020. So what do I believe then? I don't offer advice because I've been wrong so much. I have a minor in economics and read the Wall Street Journal almost daily. It interests me. But when the pandemic happened I gave a friend advice on buying a car that was 180 out of phase. I told her to sit tight - the prices would come down soon.
I think that the pandemic was a once-a-century black swan where otherwise rational advice went out the window. It's not that the normal rules of supply and demand were suspended, only that so many new events happened so quickly that the interactions and outcomes were really hard to predict.
Predicting what will happen in the current economic environment seems much more straightforward. You're never gonna get it 100% correct, but you're probably not going to be 180 out of phase either.
It was a Black Swan Event for sure. But the thing is, I remain unconvinced that we've suffered through all of the ill effects of the pandemic. I fear that the knock-on ffect will last a generation or more in many broad areas.
porschenut said:calteg said:4% is historically pretty good, but with inflation at more than 8%, you're only mitigating part of your loss. Still better than keeping it in a bank account.
The inflation number quoted is a metric that doesn't apply to most of us. Yes energy costs went up and food is going up. But not by as much as that number. And the car market is not going up anymore so since the money is car money this sounds like a worthy option.
YOY increases for September were +19.8% in energy, +11.2% in food and 8.2% overall
In reply to STM317 :
we are retired and living on social security and IRA money. So increases hit us hard and take down the savings account.
Our energy expenses went down, invested in a 3K prius and parked the subaru. Now I get 45+mpg on regular instead of 20 on premium. Our food costs have stayed pretty constant this year, buying store brand and stuff on sale only. And going out is not happening. So no those numbers do not match ours and others we talk to .
This has gone off topic too far, staying out of it. No benefit here to the OP.
A 401 CJ said:CrustyRedXpress said:A 401 CJ said:Peabody said:It's a nutty market right now. There was a lot of speculation, opportunistic pricing and cheap money the last few years and as things slow down that's slowing too. But not everybody knows it. So prices are all over the place. I don't shop for cars much anymore but I'm constantly looking at bikes. And as those prices return to normal, you still see some asking for the peak prices of a year ago. If there's a recession coming, and it sure looks like it, that will be the time to buy. Prices will plummet. They always do.
Yes but here you are being rational again. The one thing I learned when the pandemic hit is that rationality went out the window. The fundamentals and history both say you're right. But I quit trusting both in March 2020. So what do I believe then? I don't offer advice because I've been wrong so much. I have a minor in economics and read the Wall Street Journal almost daily. It interests me. But when the pandemic happened I gave a friend advice on buying a car that was 180 out of phase. I told her to sit tight - the prices would come down soon.
I think that the pandemic was a once-a-century black swan where otherwise rational advice went out the window. It's not that the normal rules of supply and demand were suspended, only that so many new events happened so quickly that the interactions and outcomes were really hard to predict.
Predicting what will happen in the current economic environment seems much more straightforward. You're never gonna get it 100% correct, but you're probably not going to be 180 out of phase either.
It was a Black Swan Event for sure. But the thing is, I remain unconvinced that we've suffered through all of the ill effects of the pandemic. I fear that the knock-on ffect will last a generation or more in many broad areas.
I think you're both right. I'm no economist, but I'm likewise interested (fascinated) by the workings of the economy and have also said throughout the pandemic that I'm done making predictions because the economy no longer plays by the rules. But it sure looks like we're done with that chapter, and things are about to, or are already returning to normal. Hopefully the governments have realized the damage they caused by giving out so much money at the same time as lowering interest rates to practically zero.
What they did will take years to get over and could cause an equally ugly recession. If you think homes are expensive where you live, you should see what happened here. And our mortgages are different. You have to renew every 6 months to (typically) 5 years. As rates spike, the people that bought those $250,000 homes for a million bucks at 1% are going to be berkeleyed when it approaches 8%, 9%, or more. It could get be nasty. I only hope the government doesn't step in again, that's the wild card, because we need a serious correction.
And here's the part where I should just stop typing. Anecdotally, I'm already seeing it. Instead of bikes and cars selling at crazy prices in record time, it's people selling their multiple bikes, boats, quads, cars, trucks, and in a lot of those cases $75,000 - $100,000 worth of toys at the same time. And they're not selling. Only the really good deals are, and they're not going quickly, either.
Am I wrong?
I don't like my track record lately.
Article on hagerty, seems timely:
https://www.hagerty.com/media/market-trends/are-collector-cars-impacted-by-inflation/
Porchenut, your comment: "Our energy expenses went down, invested in a 3K prius and parked the subaru. Now I get 45+mpg on regular instead of 20 on premium. Our food costs have stayed pretty constant this year, buying store brand and stuff on sale only. And going out is not happening. So no those numbers do not match ours and others we talk to" makes STM325's point. You made many lifestyle changes to decrease your costs because of how bad inflation is. Inflation isn't just rising costs- it's decreasing standards of living. You can't enjoy your Subaru. You eat cheaper food, and your diet is influenced by what's on sale. You don't go out to eat as much. This is textbook stuff you read economists writing about during recessions and inflationary periods.
I do a lot of our shopping, and I have noticed spikes that are unprecedented in my lifetime. A half-dozen bagels went from $6 to $7.50. 25% increase. A can of beans went from 99 cents to 1.19. Sure, that's only 20 cents, but it's also 20%. A can of spray paint went from $4.99 to $6.50. Brake clean went crazy- for awhile a can was close to $7, though it's come back a bit it's still higher than it was a few years back, by a double-digit % amount. A $12 burger at the bar down the street is now $15.
And with interest rates going up, the cost of borrowing money is going up, which is also inflation. Even if you have a locked in rate, at some point you're going to have to buy a new car, and that car is going to cost more. If you have a fixed mortgage, that won't change, but property taxes seem go up every year- and even more so when inflation is higher- so your monthly payment will go up even there. We just got a notice ours will be going up $73 a month.
I'm not bringing patios into this, because it's not going to change anyone's mind or be a productive conversation. But when anyone tells you inflation is not real, or temporary, or that 'everyone's pay is going up a lot too' (yes, someone did try to tell me that) or whatever fairy tale they see reported somewhere, that's verifiably untrue. The causes may be debatable. The effects are not.
I'm interested in an integra type r but I doubt I'll ever get one for the prices I remember, ~$10-15k for a good one. Since it'd be a toy, I don't care to spend more...
In looking at BAT last night, it seemed that regular cab pickup trucks are coming back into fashion. The newest Ford extra-cab fleet models (f250) also seem to indicate an interest in more reasonably-sized cabs. It's also interesting to see how many of the ridiculously bad deals on BAT were only just bought within the past year . . .
You can get a revolving super deal on a new(ish) Bronco Raptor for about $120k. What a bargain!
docwyte said:I'm interested in an integra type r but I doubt I'll ever get one for the prices I remember, ~$10-15k for a good one. Since it'd be a toy, I don't care to spend more...
JDM Type R Integras seem to be a bit more reasonably priced but still not $10k or event $15k.
David S. Wallens said:docwyte said:I'm interested in an integra type r but I doubt I'll ever get one for the prices I remember, ~$10-15k for a good one. Since it'd be a toy, I don't care to spend more...
JDM Type R Integras seem to be a bit more reasonably priced but still not $10k or event $15k.
For a toy, it seems like buying a GSR and building it up makes a lot more sense nowadays. Type Rs seem to be in the "sit in front of it in a folding chair" price range now.
In reply to eastsideTim :
I agree, a GSR with a K swap would be easily as fun if not more than a Type R
In reply to docwyte :
At that point, yeah, just start with a base tub so there's no sunroof involved. That'd be a wicked track car.
But for the collector market, being a legit Type R matters. (Make mine Championship White, please.)
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