They've definitely got a big pinch coming. I think it's inevitable in trying to start such a capital intense business - very different from a software startup. Tesla went through it when starting production of the 3, it was really close. I'm hoping Rivian can make it.
In reply to Chris_V :
It's not articles saying this, it's literally their income statements. At current spending rates, they have ~7 quarters worth of cash left.
Yes, of course they have to spend a lot now to make money in the future. Tesla was in the same spot not that many years ago. The problem for Rivian (and Lucid and, sorta, everyone else) is that when Tesla was in the early phase, they were basically the only game in town. If you wanted an EV in 2016, they were practically the only example. Yes, there was the Leaf and the Bolt, but they were barely being made, and Nissan/GM were hardly pushing them. But now you have to compete against Tesla and most of the other legacy mfrs.
I'm with SV reX - I hope they make it. They're moving in the right direction, but they have a long way to go and I'm not convinced they'll make it. But all those problems for Rivian, multiply them by like 10x for all the other little fledgling EV companies (China brands excluded).
Amazon's investment in Rivian makes me think they will eventually make it through. Lucid, Fisker, etc? Doubt it.
And I actually do own Rivian stock, but I'm sure not all in on them!
They also started with different products than Tesla did.
Tesla brought something new and very unique to the luxury market, and has been trying to work the numbers down ever since. They didn't start with trucks, and really don't have an SUV either.
Im a major fan of EV trucks, but the truck market is a very different market. Premium trucks are definitely a thing, but a very large percentage of the truck buying market wouldn't buy a Rivian. They are selling performance high end adventurer trucks- that market is still being defined. They will not have free reign in the rest of the truck market- they will have to compete with all the major players.
The SUV market is definitely big, and definitely luxury. But their timing puts them in competition with everyone else making them. Their product is just one among many to choose from (and some of the manufacturers like Kia have a much lower price point).
Tesla launched into the luxury market (which was empty), and has been able to use success there to launch into other markets. It was a great strategy, and timing. Rivian doesn't have that same advantage.
Rivian's CEO is the only one with serious engineering cred, and I think his product may therefore be a better one from a technical side. Remains to be seen if he can make the business as successful as the product.
The average consumer still doesn't know what a Rivian is. And those that do hesitate because they aren't convinced Rivian will be there to offer support 5 years from now.
Its fascinating.
The source for this rare earth material here in US is located in but a few locations.....one being Mountain Pass at the Cali/Nev border @ I-10. Until but a few years ago this ore was mined....sent to china......and returned to the US end users......
Someone should build a really big battery factory in, say, Georgia.
In reply to Keith Tanner :
<raises hand>
In reply to SV reX :
I don't think Rivian's competing with so much with Kia, they're competing with the makers of other premium 4x4s that are actually meant to be taken off-road. Jeep, Ford (with the Bronco and maybe Raptor), Land Rover, and Toyota (with the Tacoma and Tundra). Note that there are only a few hybrids in there and no full EVs. The Kia EV crossovers would be very nearly as good as the Rivian at ordinary street driving but I don't think they're getting cross-shopped - not only due to the vastly different price points but due to Kia's EV crossovers being more oriented to on-pavement performance (like the Mustang Mach-E or Tesla X) than offroading.
In reply to GameboyRMH :
That's fair. Although, I'd have a very hard time doing any serious off-reading in an R1S.
Rivians are definitely being purchased by the Tacoma/4Runner crowd. The fact that there's a factory roof tent option tells the tale :)
The issue I have with them is the truck looks pretty good all around, until you get to the front. Its fugly.
I will say this once more iffen there's no juice yu bee's gonin' NOWHERE GET IT ????....oh nevermind
My bad I'm starting to sound like "Frenchy"(no disrespect).....g'night y'all peace out Happy Thanks Givivng GRM
GameboyRMH said:In reply to SV reX :
I don't think Rivian's competing with so much with Kia, they're competing with the makers of other premium 4x4s that are actually meant to be taken off-road. Jeep, Ford (with the Bronco and maybe Raptor), Land Rover, and Toyota (with the Tacoma and Tundra). Note that there are only a few hybrids in there and no full EVs. The Kia EV crossovers would be very nearly as good as the Rivian at ordinary street driving but I don't think they're getting cross-shopped - not only due to the vastly different price points but due to Kia's EV crossovers being more oriented to on-pavement performance (like the Mustang Mach-E or Tesla X) than offroading.
Talking to a guy that does lot of benchmarking, he said the Rivian is also has insanely impressive on road handling as well.
My friend is on his second. He loves it. I've only been in it briefly but it seemed really well put together. He was one of the initial reservation holders who had the original price honored. Later, an insurance company paid the current price for a new one.
The first was hit by a redlight-running Accord. It was a glancing blow in front of the front tires. The Accord came to rest upside down but my friend was able to drive home. Unfortunately, it was totaled. I never heard why but it was surprising given the visible damage level.
He was able to download video of the crash the following day. I imagine that made for a very short conversation with the insurance company!
The overlanding crowd might be buying these, but they're not being used for the same sort of trips that ICE overlanding vehicles can do. You're still constrained by the lack of charging stations, particularly out in the middle of BFE, plus the time of charging. You can't add capacity, like you can with an ICE vehicle, there is no rotopax for electric cars. While a select few are taking them off road, that's not many people and nobody is building these out like you do a Jeep or FJ Cruiser. While an R1T can do Engineer Pass, doing it on my KTM or my Land Cruiser is far easier, with no worries whatsoever about charging, capacity or anything else.
These are being purchased and used the same as most SUV's and trucks, around town by city cowboys. Which is fine, they're awfully nice and work really well around town. My friend had an R1T and now has an R1S, I find them very thoughtfully built and designed, if I could've afforded an R1T and it'd fit in my garage, I would've been very tempted. I agree that people buying a typical F150 aren't looking at an R1T. Towing range with an R1T is abysmal and the electric infrastructure/charging times are still an enormous impediment to electric vehicle ownership, particularly something that just gets used as a work truck.
It should be remembered that when Tesla started up they bought their factory and other major parts for pennies on the dollar during the downturn. It'd be an interesting exercise to look at how the typical start up costs would've impacted them. As pointed out, they also had a huge jump on the market compared to everyone else. They haven't really innovated much since then, the Model S hasn't really changed and the Model 3 is getting old, the cyber truck is a joke. At this point all the legacy automakers are selling electric cars and they're much better built than Teslas are. Demand seems to have really cratered for electric cars though, it's going to be interesting to see what happens going forward, as consumers clearly aren't willing to accept the time table that politicians are trying to push through....
In reply to docwyte :
Tesla has built at least three factories from the ground up by this point - China, Germany and Texas. And the Model 3 they sell today isn't the same car that was for sale in 2019, there are a bunch of changes from basic HVAC design to battery chemistry. They just look the same. The legacy automakers are all discovering that EVs aren't as easy as they thought, too. Gives an opening for the upstarts like Rivian.
I've been off-road in an R1T. It's pretty capable. Heavy, but those quad motors really do a good job of maximizing traction. Engineers would be a walk in the park, and range off-road is long - range would not be a concern there. My off-road training friend has done multi-day trips with it, and they don't bother charging them before every day of training.
I'm not sure that demand has "cratered" when the best selling car in the county is electric.
I enjoy how much you can customize them. I just built one that was Forest Green with the Forest Edge+Warm Ash interior. The Performance Dual motor with max pack battery. $105k ain't bad for all that but still a lot of money. I love the interior options, that Forest Edge just reminds me of the Family Truckster
They've had some issues and pushed things out to get the revenue flowing before they were fully ready. I saw someone compare going from a [recent] Tesla to a new Rivian like going from an iPhone to an Android with too much bloatware.
I personally spent a week with one of the first 20 trucks off the line. I loved it. I didn't find any issues really, but they would have been fixed already. I've talked to about 6 owners, they've all loved them but have all had small annoying problems. I think the problems are amplified by EVs being new and scary; these are brand new vehicles from scratch from a brand new company.
As to if they're worth it? Well I can't afford a $10k truck or SUV right now so it's hard for me to gauge, but it sure felt like it would be if I had that kind of wealth.
Keith's more interesting off-roading thread: https://grassrootsmotorsports.com/forum/grm/offroading-in-a-rivian-r1t/198532/page1/
DirtyBird222 said:I enjoy how much you can customize them. I just built one that was Forest Green with the Forest Edge+Warm Ash interior. The Performance Dual motor with max pack battery. $105k ain't bad for all that but still a lot of money. I love the interior options, that Forest Edge just reminds me of the Family Truckster
If you win the lottery and buy one, please put fake wood on the side.
DirtyBird222 said:$105k ain't bad for all that...
I can't relate to this statement.
Keith Tanner said:DirtyBird222 said:I enjoy how much you can customize them. I just built one that was Forest Green with the Forest Edge+Warm Ash interior. The Performance Dual motor with max pack battery. $105k ain't bad for all that but still a lot of money. I love the interior options, that Forest Edge just reminds me of the Family Truckster
If you win the lottery and buy one, please put fake wood on the side.
If I didn't make a bi-monthly road trip that was 450 miles each way to see my kids, I would have already ordered one. I need ICE power to minimize my monthly/yearly commuting time down.
I was highly considering an Ioniq 5 for that purpose but it could potentially add a whole 24+ hours a year to being on the road. The fuel cost savings aren't worth my time.
mfennell said:The first was hit by a redlight-running Accord. It was a glancing blow in front of the front tires. The Accord came to rest upside down but my friend was able to drive home. Unfortunately, it was totaled. I never heard why but it was surprising given the visible damage level.
Probably because repair parts are much more expensive than the equivalent parts for regular cars. I'm not saying they're gouging, it's just that this is a part of the business where the high startup production costs are passed along faithfully to the consumer rather than being swallowed by the manufacturer in the name of building brand awareness and a market niche.
In reply to DirtyBird222 :
Do the math on how much time you spend making trips to a gas station specifically to refuel an ICE :) It's not zero even if you're just stopping at a station as you pass by. Someday I'm going to do the actual numbers on that. Gotta get some real data on the actual time spent refueling.
But yeah, that's a long, long trip to make every two weeks. You could recharge while you're eating - I'm assuming you have to eat on a trip that long - but I can see why you might want to make it as short as possible.
Tesla (stockholders) has poured tons of money into themselves with no return in profits. For some unknown reason, Wall Street has given Tesla (Amazon too) a pass on requiring them to be profitable as they do with every other company. The investors went into a kool-aid induced euphoria as they pumped money in and the stock price ran away into the stratosphere all without a profit. So far it doesn't look like these other EV start ups are going to get this same pass on profits. Time will tell. It will also be interesting to watch how Lucid does with their Saudi royal family money funding them.
IMHO I seriously doubt that there is true market demand for most of these vehicles in the quantity they are wantig to build them. Once the subsidies dry up so has the demand. There are only so many wealthy, early adopter, environmentalists out there. I rented a Sienna (hybrid) for a family trip and was amazed at the 39-41 MPG that it got driving the family around. That's a more realistic approach IMHO.
My guess is that the .gov will roll out a new batch of BEV incentives as these run their course. I would love a BEV but it doesn't make sense at a 150-200% price premium, crazy depreciation, and if it's out of warranty the thought of a +$10,000 battery is downright scary.
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