The Future of driving

Yes, computers multi-task better than we do. Hell... a lot of drivers have trouble with single-tasking...

Joe Gearin wrote: ^^ I hope you enjoy your brave new world. (honestly....I wish you all well) I'll be in Costa Rica, or somewhere suitably "undeveloped" where I can drive myself until my days are over. I already have too much electronic interaction in my life---- I'm looking for less, not more.

I would agree with you except that I know things change.. they always have and always will keep on changing.. We can either adapt or be left behind.. It's true that things are pretty similar to the 1800's in small parts of the world. However if you become ill or disease overtakes you, that isn't where you'll want to be for treatment..

I can (could?) ride a horse, however I accept the fact that not having streets filled with horse...er poopis a good thing.. I still can hand crank my old MG and get it started but it is nice to step into the truck and turn the key and away I go..

I too want to be a luddite.. it's just that some of the new technology is so attractive and enticing I'm willing to attempt to try to keep up.. The good thing is that according to recent research that willingness to attempt to keep up has a positive effect on my not getting old age dementia.

Joe Gearin wrote: ^^^ I'll have to respectfully disagree with you there. While driving I am constantly predicting what the vehicles around me will do. If I see a car acting erratically, I give them room. If I see the glow of a phone in the driver's face--- I predict they will wander out of their lane....which they almost always do. If they are driving aggressively, I expect them to try and pass me on the right---- and block themselves in.....because they neglected to see the other car in front of them. (most drivers only seem to be able to see 5ft in front of their cars) I am constantly looking, predicting, and planing my escape routes if things do go wrong. This is especially true on a motorcycle. Computers will be able to learn driver "tells" so they can predict erratic human behavior, but it won't be foolproof. Even a magical computer isn't going to be able to avoid an accident if a homicidal human decides he'd like to T-Bone an automated car. Of course, this is a total rarity, but lets not put on rose-colored glasses, and think everything will be seamless. I predict autonomous driving will begin with HOV-like restricted lanes, which will eventually become nearly all lanes. Then, over a few years, they will remove the human-driven lanes, and go full-autonomous. Your "recreational" driving will be restricted. Driving a car by yourself will be a societal taboo, as you are endangering others, polluting the environment, and killing all those bugs on your windshield. (think of the poor children.....and those innocent bugs!) We are becoming much more risk adverse as a society. Eliminating human-driven cars is just one more step in creating a perfectly "safe" cocoon-like world. Only troglodytes and the dim witted would argue otherwise!

I don't believe self drive will happen as you believe.. Right now self drive cars are adaptable to human drivers.. they make allowances etc. and adapt to them .. Because of that they are limited to today's rules and limits.

The full advantages of self driving cars will happen as we old fogies' gradually turn over driving to the computer to allow us to continue to "drive" past our normal limits.. (very few drivers in their 80's and 90's even in rural areas)

As for recreational driving?? Oh you mean like being stuck in traffic jams and putting up with bad/drunk/ impaired drivers? As for just fun driving, isn't that what race tracks are for?

Heck, there are still places I can go to ride a horse if I want to.. They even have the horses available to rent if you don't have your own.. In the future will you be able to go to a race track and rent a Indy car one weekend? A dragster the next? Or just take some convertible out for a fall spin with the top down and your girl at your side?

And, thankfully, by then I'll be dead, either by design or on purpose.

Nick (Not-Stig) Comstock wrote:

Joe Gearin wrote: I don't have a huge problem with it as long as I'm not forced to allow a computer to do my driving. The day I'm no longer allowed to drive is the day I leave the U.S.

This sums up my feelings on the subject. I love the driving part of driving. It doesn't matter the situation. I don't currently, or have I ever, lived in a place that has bad traffic issues. I've never lived in a place that has HOV lanes, never even heard of the concept until I drove through Atlanta. An automated car would have no place in my life, It has no advantage at all for me. And if they are mandated through legislation, it would take away the thing I live for doing. Which is hoping on the bike, or getting in an exciting car, and picking a road and just driving. Seriously it's my favorite thing in the world. The day I am no longer allowed to do that is the day I no longer am an American.

The currant crop of self drive cars are designed to deal with the human element. As a result of it we won't see all the benefits for self drive will us old guys are still in control.. Our children or grandchildren will realize those benefits and adapt just as my grandparents went from the horse to cars with automatic transmissions and air conditioning..

That doesn't mean they outlawed the horse, rather the horse and car co-existed until cars became so normal horses stayed on the farms for their own safety..

Still trying to visualize the steps leading up to D day, when the last human will be allowed to pilot a motorized vehicle.

The in-between times are what is going to be scary. At a certain tipping point when the number of accidents reaches a certain point, a decision will have to be made to either not have autonomous vehicles, or to ban Humans.

NOHOME wrote: Still trying to visualize the steps leading up to D day, when the last human will be allowed to pilot a motorized vehicle. The in-between times are what is going to be scary. At a certain tipping point when the number of accidents reaches a certain point, a decision will have to be made to either not have autonomous vehicles, or to ban Humans.

It's never going to happen (banning human drivers) not in our lifetime.. Politicians are too chicken to do anything so unpopular. What will happen is insurance rates to human drive a car will climb so high as to become unaffordable.. How do I know? I bought a new vehicle recently. My agent informed me that had I bought the right options it would have been cheaper to insure than my 20 year old one.. (I have a 30 year accident /ticket free record)

Blind spot alerts, automatic braking, etc. drop the risk of accidents enough to dramatically lower insurance. There are already plug in reporters that lower your insurance rates based on your driving manner. Progressive is one such company that advertises that feature..

Joe Gearin wrote: ^^ I hope you enjoy your brave new world. (honestly....I wish you all well) I'll be in Costa Rica, or somewhere suitably "undeveloped" where I can drive myself until my days are over. I already have too much electronic interaction in my life---- I'm looking for less, not more.

It's not going to happen (banning human drive vehicles), not in our lifetime.. Politicians are simply too chicken to do such an unpopular thing.. (remember, winning to them is getting reelected)

What will happen is insurance rates will climb to the point where it is cheaper to let the computer drive.. How do I know? I recently bought a new vehicle and my agent informed me that had I got one with the right combination of options it would have been cheaper to insure than my 20 year old one..

Option's like blind spot indicators, automatic braking, automatic parking, etc. Some companies like Progressive advertise their plug in discount, it keeps track of your driving inputs and discounts insurance rates accordingly..

Why did you repost nine minutes later ?

^^ As far as Progressive's "Snapshot" is concerned......

I'd rather they calculate my insurance rates based on my actual driving record, and how many accidents I've had, rather than deeming me a menace because I use full throttle and full braking occasionally. I'd rather not have big brother looking over my shoulder and raising my rates---- even though I haven't been issued a citation, or been in an accident. In their calculations, I'm sure I would not qualify for a discount.......even with a clean driving record.

I break the speed limit every time I drive a car. I am also a safe driver. These things can co-exist, but I doubt the insurance man sees it this way.

One thing that I hope will keep rural living alive is telecommuting. I hope that we see some changes in the future of work that minimizes the amount of time we need to be in the office.

Joe Gearin wrote: ^^ As far as Progressive's "Snapshot" is concerned...... I'd rather they calculate my insurance rates based on my actual driving record, and how many accidents I've had, rather than deeming me a menace because I use full throttle and full braking occasionally. I'd rather not have big brother looking over my shoulder and raising my rates---- even though I haven't been issued a citation, or been in an accident. In their calculations, I'm sure I would not qualify for a discount.......even with a clean driving record. I break the speed limit every time I drive a car. I am also a safe driver. These things can co-exist, but I doubt the insurance man sees it this way.

The insurance business is based on a formula designed to provide the company with a profit.. Not how cheap can we make insurance for you.. Once you accept that premise it becomes rather easy to find the cheapest cost for insurance. However the variable isn't how cheap is your insurance if you don't need it, rather how well are you treated once something does happen..

I would gladly pay a bit more to ensure that should an event happen I will be satisfied with the outcome.. Unfortunately that is a moving target. Companies with good reputations change management and when that happens the unknowns multiply..

pheller wrote: One thing that I hope will keep rural living alive is telecommuting. I hope that we see some changes in the future of work that minimizes the amount of time we need to be in the office.

SWMBO works from home. Her commute is a flight of stairs without any traffic now that the cat is gone... Given the internet and computers more and more office work is done on line, saving the rush hour for those who's employers haven't realized the potential savings in not having to provide office space or work space..

Joe Gearin wrote: ^^ As far as Progressive's "Snapshot" is concerned...... I'd rather they calculate my insurance rates based on my actual driving record, and how many accidents I've had, rather than deeming me a menace because I use full throttle and full braking occasionally. I'd rather not have big brother looking over my shoulder and raising my rates---- even though I haven't been issued a citation, or been in an accident. In their calculations, I'm sure I would not qualify for a discount.......even with a clean driving record. I break the speed limit every time I drive a car. I am also a safe driver. These things can co-exist, but I doubt the insurance man sees it this way.

So you are the exception that proves the rule? OK fair enough. I too have a 30 year accident/ticket free driving record. Yet the fact is if I buy a car with the right safety options my insurance becomes so cheap that it will actually pay for those options (and a few more)

When that agent writes your policy you are just lumped in with all other drivers with similar driving records.. They don't care, it's not about you, it's a formula that will provide them with a profit.. Change the formula to your advantage and don't try to fight the system.. it's a 200 billion dollar a year system.

Did this bump really need to happen? I doubt it.

In reply to bluej :

The future is changing so fast it's difficult to keep up.  One of my tech buddies pointed out most stop lights are on timers with maybe a emergency vehicle override

in the future they will be computer controlled or done away with altogether.  Timing will be like figure eight racing but computer controlled instead of human. 

Clearance will be in micro seconds instead of car lengths. Urban commute times will rival or beat freeway times. With distance not traffic determining factor. Speed limits will be worked out based on the vehicles performance not debate grandma can deal with.