Upcoming EV golden era? Or EV horsepower wars?

So I just read a review of the Porsche Taycan "Turbo" S:

https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/first-drives/a29198183/2020-porsche-taycan-turbo-s-first-drive-review/

And it really seems like a pretty phenomenal car, and stupid fast.  I feel like we're just starting to enter the time period where in the next couple years we're going to see several more performance EVs coming out and the market is really going to increase.  Already we have of course Tesla and the Nissan leaf and BMW i3 and several others, and now coming out are the Porsche Taycan, Audi E-tron, Hyundai Kona Electric, Jaguar I-Pace, Kia Niro EV and Soul EV, VW E-Golf, and coming soon a yet unnamed VW SUV, a Mini EV, Honda E (although maybe not in America), Polestar 2, Aston Martin Rapide E, and more.  And almost all of those have a range of more than 200 miles, so they're quite usable.  Exciting times to be in.  I hope there is a form of standardized plug for these cars, or else I can foresee problems arising.  From what I understand Tesla uses a different plug than what my wife's plug in Prius does.  

Article on some upcoming EVs

https://www.pocket-lint.com/cars/news/140845-future-cars-and-upcoming-electronic-cars-of-the-future-coming-soon

Then you have craziness like the Rimac C_Two, which they say will do 0-60 in 1.85 seconds, have a range of 404 miles, 1,888hp, a top speed of 258mph, and can recharge to 80% in 30 minutes.  

https://www.motor1.com/news/235215/rimac-c2-ev-geneva-debut/

And the ridiculous Pininfarina Battista:

https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/the-pininfarina-battista-is-a-fully-electric-1900bhp-hypercar

horsepower wars, indeed!  I can't afford any of them but it's fun to watch.  It'll be nice in 10 years when all that tech boils down to a $30K car with a 500 mile range and 4 second 0-60 time.

There are basically two standardized plugs, one for Tesla and the SAE J1772 standard for everyone else.  What it coming soon are inductive fast charging mats... just park on top of it!

I have a hard time understanding the range anxiety though, most people on their daily commute drive less than 50 miles/day and could plug in when they park overnight.  Most new EVs have more than enough range for the daily commute and a few errands.  For longer trips either rent a car or have a second vehicle.

I think I'm more excited from a day to day utility point of view. I'm still happy having fun with my dino juice burning cars, but I'd be really excited to have an EV minivan to haul the family around in. If the minivan were also AWD and could accelerate to 60 MPH in under 4 seconds all the better. 

MrFancypants said:

I think I'm more excited from a day to day utility point of view. I'm still happy having fun with my dino juice burning cars, but I'd be really excited to have an EV minivan to haul the family around in. If the minivan were also AWD and could accelerate to 60 MPH in under 4 seconds all the better. 

AWD station wagon, 0-60 under 4 seconds, price starts at $30K.  Now that'll be the perfect GRM EV.  And 20 years from now someone will get one for cheap for the $2039 challenge, gut it, and run a 9 second 1/4 mile.  

The next 10 years for battery technology will be like someone pouring jet fuel on a tire fire.

Any new technology to advance batteries and chemistries will not simply be felt and seen in cars- that technology will be seen in computers, phones, medical devices, and everything down to some crappy off-brand airpods given time and licensing. Trillions are pouring into Lithium chemistries and new electrolytes- and that's not even discussing sodium and sulfur chemistries, which are now beginning to enter the open market.

Sorta on-topic but stuff like the Taycan 4S excites me a lot more than the very top-end of the market.

The Bolt is the closest thing to a new EV I'd buy new right now, but GM will never, ever receive a dollar of mine towards a new vehicle.

I'm waiting with bated breath for a sporty/fun-to-drive PHEV/EV with a 200+ mile range to hit the market.

I think the biggest thing holding the EV market back is the infrastructure, and the time it takes to charge.  They are getting better year over year, but still not where the general public would choose it over ICE.

What I find interesting is the absolute top of the line here is only marginally faster than things 1/10 the cost.  This Rimac costs a couple million and does 0-60 in 1.85 seconds.  The upcoming Tesla Roadster does it in 1.9 seconds and has a 200 mile larger range and costs I think around 200K.  Hell, for $60K you can get a lightly used Tesla model S that'll out 0-60 most supercars.  With EVs, all-out beastly acceleration doesn't seem to be quite such a hard to afford thing.  

That's because it's really just a matter of dumping power as fast as possible.

I think we're just at the point where available range and charging times have hit levels that are acceptable to the general public. The reason the 3 is selling so well is because of the range and the Supercharger network. Other networks will build out - Porsche is working with Electrify America for the Taycan, and they're building a network of crazy fast high power chargers that will compete with the Superchargers. That's the real EV race, who can get the infrastructure in place. In a perfect world, Tesla would license the Supercharger network to other makers but there are a bunch of reasons why that's not going to happen.

The different plugs are like the different plugs for 230V outlets, the plug indicates what kind of charger it is so you don't melt down your car by accident.

It's all about $/mile vs. upfront cost.  I looked at EVs before buying my Mazda3, but the break-even point was somewhere around 150k-200k miles.  The EV choice being about $10,000 more expensive than the comparable gas car, after incentives.  

Maybe when my 3 has 200k on it, the EV option will be comparable in upfront cost.  

I wonder when swapping from ICE to EV would be cost-effective.

I don't foresee an affordable EV wagon happening anytime soon and wouldn't mind updating my aging wagon.

I kind of want to buy a salvage LEAF and build an Unlimited Time Attack car out of it

I hear a lot of people bemoaning that the arrival of EVs is the end of performance, and it seems to me like they just haven't driven an EV. Even the more pedestrian ones, like the Chevrolet Bolt have some serious hustle and will fry the tires off if you aren't careful (I did an unintentional 30mph rolling burnout with the first one our dealer got).

will Dana or ????  just make an EV  rear axle that bolts into all the old full size vans and pick-ups

or a pair of EV front hubs for the FWD  drive cars ?

Keith Tanner said:

Other networks will build out 

I think most others are pretty charging company agnostic and they outnumber supercharging stations by a crazy amount.  An example from mid NC...

Tesla:  (Only 3 are listed as 'superchargers')

All chargers (limited to 250 results so not all are shown):

Yeah, the issue is in super populated areas where the cars are popular. 

I saw multiple photos out of LA/SD/SF this weekend of LINES of Tesla's waiting to get to the charger. 5 minutes for gas or 2 hours just to wait to charge. Can you imagine how infruriating that would be? To be stuck at a charger waiting while you're on a road trip or something?

FuzzWuzzy said:

I wonder when swapping from ICE to EV would be cost-effective.
 

I think we're entering that era now for many, soon for more.  Already you can pick up a 2015 Nissan Leaf for $13K.  Pretty soon, with luxury car depreciation and all, we'll be able to get Tesla Model 3s for $20-something.  That's what I'm holding out for, for my wife's next car.  

In reply to infinitenexus :

I, too, am waiting for Teslas to drop just a bit more. Doing my best to not have a reason to buy a newer ICE car because of it.

Cheapest ones I see are the 2012/13 S' in the high $20s, but they were "plagued" with issues. I don't think the newer S' or 3's will be dropping that much anytime soon.

When my RS eventually wears out (and at almost 50K, it's about 1/3 of the way through its life), I will probably get one of these used:

ProDarwin said:

Keith Tanner said:

Other networks will build out 

I think most others are pretty charging company agnostic and they outnumber supercharging stations by a crazy amount.  An example from mid NC...

 

Tesla:  (Only 3 are listed as 'superchargers')

 

All chargers (limited to 250 results so not all are shown):

 

The reason I mentioned Superchargers is because they are dramatically faster than most other options. If you’re on the road, you want to charge at 120 kW, not the common 6.6 kW Level 2. You can charge a Tesla at any charging station, but unless you’re stopped overnight it’s not all that viable. Electrify America is working on a rival network of fast chargers. It’s like the old railway lines being built out. 

z31maniac said:

Yeah, the issue is in super populated areas where the cars are popular. 

I saw multiple photos out of LA/SD/SF this weekend of LINES of Tesla's waiting to get to the charger. 5 minutes for gas or 2 hours just to wait to charge. Can you imagine how infruriating that would be? To be stuck at a charger waiting while you're on a road trip or something?

That was probably because of the rolling blackouts in that area last weekend. Basically, the equivalent of the gas shortages in the 70s. 

I know exactly what it’s like to have to wait :) The infrastructure is going to have to keep up with the growth of the number of cars. It will occasionally struggle. Heavily populated areas have more chargers, so it balances out. 

Clearly the only solution for people worried about EV range is to attach coat the entire car in the flexible solar panels AND a mini wind turbine. Or two. Just in case. Unlimited range and truly off-grid.

What I hate isn't electric cars per se'. It's that extreme performance is just another box to be checked. People are buying extreme Teslas who aren't auto enthusiasts. It was one thing when those rare people with faster cars than me were part of my clan. Now housewives that really don't give a E36 M3 are driving cars that can smoke me. I'm starting to feel like Harley guy instead of cool racer guy.

I wonder if Tesla took their Model 3 and backed down the power to something around 200hp, how it would affect the range?  I wonder how that even works with EVs?