Upcoming EV golden era? Or EV horsepower wars?

Keith Tanner said:

If it helps, Tesla has an 80,000 mile warranty on the powertrain and Toyota just announced theirs would be 100,000. Tesla surveys have indicated that the lifespan of the battery pack should be in the 300-500k range. I don't know if it's better to do frequent fast charges or run from 80%-20% every day.

f I understand properly, none of the warranties cover degradation, so that doesn't really address the question.

bcp2011 said:

In reply to Keith Tanner :

I'd go a step further and suggest that electric generation is far less centralized than oil refining. Have a windmill?  You can get electrons!  Have a solar panel?  You can get electrons!  Have a bike you can pedal?  You can get electrons!  
 

Have a barrel of oil?  Well... you can't do much with it. 

Agreed, but to play devil's advocate for a second:  Many farmers produce their own biodiesel.

In reply to ProDarwin :

Good point. I don't know the % of folks who actually do that (eg I assumed it was more of an scaled industrial process) but could definitely be off here. Not a farm boy for good or bad.

tuna55 said:

Keith Tanner said:

If it helps, Tesla has an 80,000 mile warranty on the powertrain and Toyota just announced theirs would be 100,000. Tesla surveys have indicated that the lifespan of the battery pack should be in the 300-500k range. I don't know if it's better to do frequent fast charges or run from 80%-20% every day.

f I understand properly, none of the warranties cover degradation, so that doesn't really address the question.

Its pretty easy to find the answer to that question. Degradation is specifically covered.

https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty

Vehicle Warranty

b13990 said:

Keith Tanner said:They're all good reasons and you don't need to agree with all of them of appreciate the concept.

All I said was that I've never wanted one, and then I tried to understand why. It's something I've struggled with. I don't much care if a car has a turbo, or a naturally aspirated V8, or a Wankel motor... I like them all. But I guess a battery with an electric motor attached to it seems ho-hum. It's a refinement (granted, an extreme one) of technology learned in elementary school.

Some of it may relate to my experience riding out Hurricane Katrina. People talk about electric car ranges, charging networks... how would an EV hold up as my last connection to civilized life for a few weeks, running DC radios, lights, etc.? I have no idea, but I know my little 2.3L Ford was a godsend back then.

So the concern is that the EV can’t double as a generator in a disaster zone? That’s a pretty specific concern, but valid. A little Honda generator might do the job better and could take care of charging the car too. And an EV is a pretty freakin’ big battery, so it could probably power a radio and some LEDs for quite a while.

Being able to understand the basic concept shouldn’t make it more or less viable. I suggest you actually get in one, see how they function in real life. Not just a two block “check out how fast it is!” ride, but an extended exposure.  They are distinct from combustion cars in a number of ways.

Keith Tanner said:

tuna55 said:

Keith Tanner said:

If it helps, Tesla has an 80,000 mile warranty on the powertrain and Toyota just announced theirs would be 100,000. Tesla surveys have indicated that the lifespan of the battery pack should be in the 300-500k range. I don't know if it's better to do frequent fast charges or run from 80%-20% every day.

f I understand properly, none of the warranties cover degradation, so that doesn't really address the question.

Its pretty easy to find the answer to that question. Degradation is specifically covered.

https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty

Vehicle Warranty

New Vehicle Limited Warranty

Your vehicle is protected by a New Vehicle Limited Warranty for 4 years or 50,000 miles, whichever comes first. The Battery and Drive Unit in your vehicle are covered for a period of:

• Model S and Model X – 8 years (with the exception of the original 60 kWh battery manufactured before 2015, which is covered for a period of 8 years or 125,000 miles, whichever comes first).
• Model 3 - 8 years or 100,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity over the warranty period.
• Model 3 with Long-Range Battery - 8 years or 120,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity over the warranty period.

That 70% figure is pretty common for battery warranties, and it may be enough or may not be enough for some drivers, especially with the overall reduced range in winter. But this is one area of challenge for EVs versus ICE cars. If I keep throwing tens of dollars in repair parts at my 88 Accord every few months, it will continue to get roughly 29 mpg no matter what. If I bought that 2013 Leaf which I leased, when it had about 100 mile range, and now it had 70 miles, it would no longer be sufficient for my commute without some actual money put into the battery.

So it's a consideration which is a little tough for some people. You have to overbuy on range.

IIRC, the Leaf doesn't offer battery cooling compared to the other companies doing EVs.

In reply to tuna55 :

And not everyone lives where there is a real winter, so reduced range in the cold isn't a concern for those people.

FuzzWuzzy said:

IIRC, the Leaf doesn't offer battery cooling compared to the other companies doing EVs.

And yet the battery warranty was nearly identical

z31maniac said:

In reply to tuna55 :

And not everyone lives where there is a real winter, so reduced range in the cold isn't a concern for those people.

 

Here in SC, not a real winter, the range was reduced as low as 65% of max during "cold" mornings.

I look at it that battery life is going to be roughly analogous to ICE lifespan before something needs to be opened up. Tesla owner surveys are showing considerably less degradation than the worst-case scenario laid out in the warranty, and a Subaru engine will have experienced 100% degradation by 120k miles in my experience :)

Then again, a coworker just bought a $500 Chevy Cruise that is the cleanest $500 car I’ve ever seen. ICE will continue to rule the bottom end of the market for some time. 

Thinking about the Katrina situation - if I have solar on my house, it’s probably tied into the grid so I can’t really power my house from it. We’ve had this happen at FM - panels all over the roof but downed power line means we go dark. Even if I could reroute the power (and nobody will let me try, the spoilsports), it would only help while the sun was shining. 

So, who’s going to come up with a way to use an EV as a power storage device in this sort of situation? Juice up the car battery in the day, feed back into the house at night. I know degraded EV batteries get reused this way for utility installations, but at some point this could be a legit option for a disaster scenario. Or a third world scenario, such as the way that a lot of countries skipped the land line telephone phase and went to the distributed cellular option. 

It's actually a real big question for FERC here in the States, because grid storage and tie-in are going to be very important as the grid decentralizes- though all grids don't like sudden surges as we've talked about before. At a minimum a so-equipped house will need some kind of communication with a local grid and to "recognize" an outage, and to have some kind of high-capacity switch to remove itself.

Problem is that while all this can be done, it does open your house to possible infiltration and it can be pretty complicated in setup. Some states like Florida also don't allow it at all, claiming that it's unsafe for their lineworkers for you to be able to turn "off" from the grid at will.

Keith Tanner said:

 a Subaru engine will have experienced 100% degradation by 120k miles in my experience :)

For GRM types... a Subaru engine needs what?  Rings, bearings and gaskets to go another 120k?  

What does it take to rebuild or refurb an EV battery pack?  I know people do it with hybrid packs, but dedicated EVs would require that on a much larger scale.  Also, what they are doing with those packs is more the equivalent of assembling a running ICE from several junkyard motors, not actually installing new parts.  So the refurbished packs they create now have a significantly higher chance of failure.

They make EVs that can swap battery packs in 5 minutes.  When was the last time you rebuilt the gas engine in your power tools?  

How standardized are the cells in EV packs? I know it’s less expensive to build your own battery pack for a hand tool out of the standard cell sizes. Do EV packs have that same ability? You may be able to pick through a salvage pack and just change out certain standard cells  

The last 120k naturally aspirated Subaru engine I rebuilt needed pistons, rings, a crank (cheaper than machining, according to my guy), all gaskets, an oil pump, bearings, a water pump and seals plus a valve job and a machined block. 

So, to answer the first question... yes, an electric race car has been built and used to power a shop during a hurricane, back in 2005. (ironically, out of a subaru)

as for "build your own pack"... you probably want to check out this guy:
 

and, yes he's building power walls too...

Lots of interesting discussion here on  variety of different topics. 

I got to attend a very high level presentation about how the electric utility industry is planning for vehicle electrification. 

350kW charge rates are seen as the tipping point or parity point for gas vs electric, because that would basically allow 15 minutes for a "fill up".  The technology totally exists to deliver that from the grid, but if you look at providing 8-12 "pumps" at a gas station, you need to deliver basically industrial service to a retail environment.  It's almost as if each gas station would need an electrical substation to feed.  So, lots of challenges to upfit, and the best approaches to solve at reasonable cost still being worked through.

They also said that the target for trucking is I think 1500kW charge rates, and the expectation is that short haul trucking would be the leader in conversion to EV (ahead of consumer adoption) due to total cost falling below ICE trucks in the very near future, and ability to support the use case.

On a personal note, we are looking to replace my wife's Prius in the near future, and although I would love to try a Bolt, I am trying to sell her on a Volt.  We do a lot of trips to the mountains on weekends for hiking, etc. in places where charging options are limited/nonexistent, and range limitations and logistics of charging don't seem like a good fit for how we will often use the car.  Plus if how she keeps her phone charged is any indication, she's not ready for an EV! (Her, at airport terminal at 6:30am at start of 6 hours of travel: "I need to find somewhere to charge my phone".  Me:  "You didn't plug it in overnight when it sat 6 inches from your charger on the nightstand?  You didn't plug in on the drive over to the airport?  Really? Really?"  I guess no Netflix for you! )

Keith Tanner said:

How standardized are the cells in EV packs? I know it’s less expensive to build your own battery pack for a hand tool out of the standard cell sizes. Do EV packs have that same ability? You may be able to pick through a salvage pack and just change out certain standard cells  

That last part is what people have been doing with Prius packs for years.

I think some of the cells are standardized.  From reading about it, the risk seems higher with DIY battery cells.  Mess something up and you have a FIRE on your hands vs. mess something up in your ICE and it doesn't run right.

Hopefully that stuff will be ironed out soon.  Even so, creating a pack on the scale needed for an EV seems expensive.  18650 cells are like $1each on the cheap end, and from what I am seeing a 5.2kWhr battery from Tesla has 444 of them.

Edit: the 85kwhr Tesla battery has 7,104 18650 cells.  I suppose a 7k rebuild on something with that kind of performance isn't too bad.  But I wonder if that will ever be economical for lower end cars or if battery failure will just total them.

Honestly, with today's leveling and charging technologies I'm not too concerned that an OEM battery would have a dead cell- I would be more worried about a cell that was taken from an accident having internal damage I couldn't see. Even guys reusing used cells have a pretty good idea of which ones will fail or not since there's some obvious tells about a lithium batteries health.

I could see battery failure totaling some- especially the 1st generation electrics like the Leaf and Electric Fusion.  

In a reply to sevenracer:

Thanks for that post. I couldn't remember what exactly was needed.

It'll be VERY interesting to see it get solved- current ideas are that each EV "Station" also functions as grid storage providing excess power and load-leveling to local municipalities. We have been making Vandium Flow and using  NGK's molten Sodium Batteries both for grid storage and the technologies are very sound- problem is however, that's a lot of money to toss into a station where the energy flow isn't consistent, which is what a grid NEEDS. At that point you're practically building the battery for the EV station first!

tuna55 said:

z31maniac said:

In reply to tuna55 :

And not everyone lives where there is a real winter, so reduced range in the cold isn't a concern for those people.

 

Here in SC, not a real winter, the range was reduced as low as 65% of max during "cold" mornings.

Because it had zero battery temperature management.  Preheating can have a significant impact on range reduction in cold weather.

If you have the Tesla Powerwall you can run off the grid when the power goes off.

ProDarwin said:

I think some of the cells are standardized.  From reading about it, the risk seems higher with DIY battery cells.  Mess something up and you have a FIRE on your hands vs. mess something up in your ICE and it doesn't run right.

I know a guy who burned an NA Miata to the ground while setting the timing. No kidding.

Just finished another cross-country trip. At at least three gas stations, I was able to get in, get 20 gallons, park, offload fluids, replenish fluids and leave while there was at least one vehicle abandoned at the pump the entire time.  At one of those stations, six of the pumps were blocked by two individuals with trailers. Never did see drivers associated with them. So maybe the 15 minute fill-up isn't going to be all that critical :)

8 year propulsion battery warranty is a Federal thing. Every mfgr has that in the fine print. 

edit : or 100k miles. I will definitely hit 100k before 8 years in my i3, so I'll be keeping an eye on it's max capacity (generally you can check this from the dash with many button pushes )