When do you replace a DD if it's not when you're bored?

Duke wrote: We're kind of circling around this issue now. DW is driving a 2004 TSX we bought new 13 years ago. There is precisely nothing wrong with it except it could use tires and an oil change. It has about 65,000 miles on it. I'm driving a 2003 325i I bought used in 2006. It has about twice the TSX's mileage and is due for the typical BMW post-100k refresh. We're on the 8-10 year plan for retirement. DD#2 gets out of college next spring. I'd like to buy us both new cars that we can have both paid off before retirement. Shouldn't be a real problem to do, because we have also been making a car payment to ourselves since these were paid off long ago. But it does sort of mean that we will be replacing both current drivers before they are dilapidated piles. I figure February 2018, we'll buy a new car for DW. The strategic conundrum is this: her TSX appears to be worth a surprising amount of money for a 13-year-old car. So do I refresh the BMW now at a cost of $1500 +/- and drive it 5 more years until it *is* a dilapidated pile, and sell the TSX to maximize capital when we buy DW's new car next year? Or do I ignore the BMW refresh for another year and unload it for cheap, then drive the TSX myself until it is still clean but nearly valueless?

We've got an 06 TSX, and are kind of at a similar point except it has a big repair due: The AC is out. Haven't diagnosed it yet.

I think it is going to be traded in on something soon because it likely has a 2 year lifespan before our situation changes and either I take the car for myself, or it has to go. The problem with me taking it? I honestly don't like the car. It is a wonderful car, among the best I've ever owned or driven, and is comfortable. I like the styling, I like everything about it... But I just don't like it. I can't explain it. Maybe if it was a stick I would.

I spend far too much time fabricating excuses. I don't implement them very often, but I always have a few in my back pocket. The cars I logic myself into are the ones that I end up liking the least, the ones I buy simply because they engage me on an emotional level are the ones I like the best and keep the longest.

When it's dead or something major is going to fail. I bailed on the avalanche after many thousands in repairs and then the transfer case started clunking. I can't afford to play the bored game with a daily, as long as it does the job and is down very little, i'll drive it into the ground. The only reason i was willing to buy a brand new truck, besides the unknown of used that absolutely murdered me with major failures on the avalanche, was i plan to keep it for 10+ years and probably way beyond that.

mazdeuce wrote: I spend far too much time fabricating excuses. I don't implement them very often, but I always have a few in my back pocket. The cars I logic myself into are the ones that I end up liking the least, the ones I buy simply because they engage me on an emotional level are the ones I like the best and keep the longest.

This too. If it turns me on immediately it's a good idea. If i talk myself into it, it doesn't stay long. Usually my impulse is correct.

Rusted_Busted_Spit wrote: I usually change mine out when someone else runs into them.

Or when I can see through the floor boards.

That's a good question. I'm either bored or stumble upon a deal too good to pass up.

I sold my Tundra because the gas prices were ridiculous at 14mpg. Sold my IS300 because a cheap e46 sedan fell in my lap. Sold my e46 sedan because a cheap e46 wagon fell in my lap.

Knurled wrote: When I come across something I want more than the current one at a price that reflects that level of want.

^^ This.

That is my current situation with wanting a Mercedes luxo boat more than I want my Impala SS. But neither one of those would be DDs.

To steer the conversation a little...

This has nothing to do with being bored, or wanting something different. That's simply not important for this vehicle, I cannot afford to have such whims in this case.

This is for a vehicle which we need to be serviceable for longer than it will probably be reasonably serviceable. My needs are not changing.

In reply to tuna55:

I think that in general depreciation per mile continues to decrease over time and the maintenance cost per mile tends to increase with age. And at some point you are looking to minimize the total of the two lines. unfortunately maintenance is harder to predict or there seems to be less available data on that front.

Keep in mind that humans intrinsically significantly underestimate the depreciation cost per mile and significantly overestimate the maintenance cost per mile, and that is hard to overcome. Frequently, people buy a newer car citing "increasing maintenance costs and reliability being paramount" but the fact is they moved out of a car that was not statistically more expensive to maintain or less reliable at all yet. But the newer car is significantly more expensive depreciation-wise. I.e. your average 5 y.o. 100k mile car probably breaks down 0-1 times in the average year. Just like the average brand new 0k mile car that replaces it.

In reply to tuna55:

In that case it simply comes down to reliability. I bought my truck new in 2007. It has 179k miles on it with only minor issues. Someone hit it in the drivers door in a parking lot early this week. I'll probably take the insurance check from that and just hold onto it until something needs to be fixed. It will continue to be the backup/primary family car as long as it's reliable enough that I'm comfortable​ driving it across the country twice a year, or the family shrinks enough that I can get away with something smaller that I actually like.

Tuna55 said: When do you replace a DD if it's not when you're bored?

After you finish the truck?

On the third cycle of "Buy new, drive ten years while saving for the next one. " Works for us. Requires very little thinking for 9 years.

Truth is also that if Mrs NOHOME were forced to use the Tow Truck and Limo service number that I put in her cell phone mote than twice, I could come home to a new car in the driveway at any point in the cycle...Redheads have NO patience!

Get the vehicle detailed upgrade stereo

mtn wrote: The problem with me taking it? I honestly don't like the car. It is a wonderful car, among the best I've ever owned or driven, and is comfortable. I like the styling, I like everything about it... But I just don't like it. I can't explain it. Maybe if it was a stick I would.

There's your problem - I have yet to see a combination of Honda four cylinder and automatic that did not seem to be in dire need of three pedals.

tuna55 wrote: To steer the conversation a little... This has nothing to do with being bored, or wanting something different. That's simply not important for this vehicle, I cannot afford to have such whims in this case. This is for a vehicle which we need to be serviceable for longer than it will probably be reasonably serviceable. My needs are not changing.

In this case, unless it's a van where one of the parts is a known time bomb, it's going to be pretty tricky to anticipate when it will be worn out. I'd most likely want to unload it if it either has a breakdown where the cost of fixing is more than the replacement value or if the frequency of problems is no longer worth the hassle. But it's nearly impossible to predict in advance when it would hit that point.

MadScientistMatt wrote:

mtn wrote: The problem with me taking it? I honestly don't like the car. It is a wonderful car, among the best I've ever owned or driven, and is comfortable. I like the styling, I like everything about it... But I just don't like it. I can't explain it. Maybe if it was a stick I would.

There's your problem - I have yet to see a combination of Honda four cylinder and automatic that did not seem to be in dire need of three pedals.

Honestly, it is one of the best automatics I've ever driven. It has never not been in the right gear, and it has enough power to be "fun enough" driving through suburbia. Maybe I just know that I like my brothers near-identical car so much better, partially because of the manual.

I live in Texas where there is no rust. For me, as long as I can get parts for it, I can always keep it reliably on the road. Parts availability issues though, I have no patience for on a daily driver. With the internet and mail order I can usually have anything I need in a couple of days. While waiting for those parts I'll drive one of my old vehicles. But, when it gets to where I have to go to efforts to find parts for a daily, it's as good as gone.

MadScientistMatt wrote:

mtn wrote: The problem with me taking it? I honestly don't like the car. It is a wonderful car, among the best I've ever owned or driven, and is comfortable. I like the styling, I like everything about it... But I just don't like it. I can't explain it. Maybe if it was a stick I would.

There's your problem - I have yet to see a combination of Honda four cylinder and automatic that did not seem to be in dire need of three pedals.

In all sincerity, the TSX is as close as you're going to come to getting it right with an ATX. Would it be more fun with the 6-speed manual? Undoubtedly. It's supposedly a sublime transmission for a FWD manual. Knowing the K24's power delivery, I'm sure it would be delightful to drive.

BUT: The automatic ain't bad at all. It doesn't hunt around, shifts are smooth and crisp in both directions, and the algorithm is helpful but unobtrusive. It does nice things like downshift under trail braking or on downgrades, but not in an "I know what you need better than you do" way, more like "Hey, I thought you might like this."

I can see not loving the car. I love ours, but I can sure understand not loving it. It's subtle, not flashy, in looks or performance. It's cute-girl-next-door, not hottie.

Duke wrote:

MadScientistMatt wrote:

mtn wrote: The problem with me taking it? I honestly don't like the car. It is a wonderful car, among the best I've ever owned or driven, and is comfortable. I like the styling, I like everything about it... But I just don't like it. I can't explain it. Maybe if it was a stick I would.

There's your problem - I have yet to see a combination of Honda four cylinder and automatic that did not seem to be in dire need of three pedals.

I can see not loving the car. I love ours, but I can sure understand not loving it. It's subtle, not flashy, in looks or performance. It's cute-girl-next-door, not hottie.

This is part of what makes me even more disappointed--I don't care about any of that. One of my favorite cars of all time was a SAAB 9-5, which wasn't any of those either. Arguably moreso. I guess it is the gas mileage that annoys me? Ours is pretty bad, but then we're in all stop and go and all shorter trips.

NOHOME wrote: On the third cycle of "Buy new, drive ten years while saving for the next one. " Works for us. Requires very little thinking for 9 years.

Wife and I have been doing this since 1970 for our DD's. We also have a "New Car" bank account that we put a "car payment" in every month. "Car payment" has increased over the years to where it is currently $300. Usually one of us gets a new car every 5 years so that saved up money helps a lot.

tuna55 wrote: At work, we call that a Weibayes analysis.

I think you’re referring to Weibull analysis.

Too bad you’re out in SC…I teach the subject by letting my students do evil things with a power supply and a bank of light bulbs.

Come to think of it, we have a site in Liberty that I visit about once a year and they’re due for the old exploding light bulb experience.

PM me if you’d like to learn some math and get a free lunch as I’ve been given permission to have nonemployee guest participants before so there's a good chance I'd get the OK.

Weibull Wiki

Added later...

I just looked it up, Weibayes is a commonly used term to describe a special case of Weibull and is an appropriate method given your situation.

RX Reven' wrote:

tuna55 wrote: At work, we call that a Weibayes analysis.

I think you’re referring to Weibull analysis. Too bad you’re out in SC…I teach the subject by letting my students do evil things with a power supply and a bank of light bulbs. Come to think of it, we have a site in Liberty that I visit about once a year and they’re due for the old exploding light bulb experience. PM me if you’d like to learn some math and get a free lunch as I’ve been given permission to have nonemployee guest participants before so there's a good chance I'd get the OK. Weibull Wiki Added later... I just looked it up, Weibayes is a commonly used term to describe a special case of Weibull and is an appropriate method given your situation.

Yeah! Thanks for the offer, but indeed the Weibayes is sort of a special analysis we do a lot because we have a lot of things which don't break and we want to find out how far we can push them.

I've never given myself the luxury of replacing a DD before it was dead. I inherited that tendency from my Dad, who would also buy cars new and drive them until they fell apart. Since I bought my first new car in 1989, two cars (both Mazdas, incidentally) served as my daily driver for 26 of those 28 years.

That said, my wife is more flexible, and I will bow to her demands for a new vehicle when the time comes. Since we are diligent about keeping our vehicles nice, that is usually when the mileage approaches 200k, or a large, expensive repair appears likely in the near future.

mtn wrote: I guess it is the gas mileage that annoys me? Ours is pretty bad, but then we're in all stop and go and all shorter trips.

You have the kind of drive cycle where hybrids shine.

Just sayin'.

You must buy cars for more than me

At the price range I buy at it doesn't take long for the repairs to equal the purchase price of the car.

Sometimes it is 4 decent tires will put it over the hump

I make the personal rule if a single repair is more than 20% of the value of the car at that time, it starts getting shopped.

FlightService wrote: I make the personal rule if a single repair is more than 20% of the value of the car at that time, it starts getting shopped.

That is kind of a bad rule. If an alternator is $200 and scrap value of a car is $150 and the car is worthless as a car without an alternator, do you scrap it?

It doesn't make sense to look at the value of the car, it makes sense to look at the value of what it would take to replace its utility. This is why pickups seem to be ridiculously overvalued. Rusted out junk with a bad engine or trans is worth more than an equivalent SUV in good shape. A pickup has a lot more utility than an SUV, which is ironic because utility is literally the SUV's middle name.

Knurled wrote:

mtn wrote: I guess it is the gas mileage that annoys me? Ours is pretty bad, but then we're in all stop and go and all shorter trips.

You have the kind of drive cycle where hybrids shine. Just sayin'.

I've got two recent threads about micro cars (iq and fortwo) and electrics... I'm well aware.