From 4.5K EVs, to 1 million in 7 years?

93EXCivic wrote: I have a hard time believing that electrics are the way of the future. I mean it seems like we are going to run into the same issues as gas in that the materials to make batteries are one non-renewable and limited in quantity. Plus making batteries is incredibly dirty and making the power to charge them is not too clean.

Based entirely in wishful thinking and having to basis in any research I've ready about, I'm pulling for capacitors.

More usefully, between capacitors and flywheels, we at least have the observation that electric does not necessarily mean batteries. It may be that we never have the energy density any other way, but I'm not ready to write it off. Similarly, with so much at stake and the entire future to dig around in, I'm not writing off the idea that we may come up with batteries made up of materials less limited in supply and cleaner to produce and recycle.

Your point is utterly valid now, but I don't want to write off all of electrical vehicles due to limitations on current implementations.

ransom wrote:

93EXCivic wrote: I have a hard time believing that electrics are the way of the future. I mean it seems like we are going to run into the same issues as gas in that the materials to make batteries are one non-renewable and limited in quantity. Plus making batteries is incredibly dirty and making the power to charge them is not too clean.

Based entirely in wishful thinking and having to basis in any research I've ready about, I'm pulling for capacitors. More usefully, between capacitors and flywheels, we at least have the observation that electric does not necessarily mean batteries. It *may* be that we never have the energy density any other way, but I'm not ready to write it off. Similarly, with so much at stake and the entire future to dig around in, I'm not writing off the idea that we may come up with batteries made up of materials less limited in supply and cleaner to produce and recycle. Your point is utterly valid now, but I don't want to write off all of electrical vehicles due to limitations on current implementations.

Certainly don't want to write off electric cars, but they do compete with iron and aluminum, which are two of the most common raw materials out there in iron ore and bauxite. if you can store energy in something made with that, then the extra copper needed would be worth it.

That's just a minor issue, relatively speaking. and you all get how massively huge it is....

What does it cost to charge these things? Interesting article in Sunday's "New York Times" by a guy who drove a new Tesla sedan on a several hundred mile road trip in California, using rapid charge stations apparently established by Tesla. 1000 pounds of batteries under the floor, range over 250 miles, charges take only an hour and are FREE to Tesla owners, but never a word about what it would add to your electric bill to plug the thing in at home. i'm sure it varies by location quite a bit.

I think it'll be batteries (maybe in conjunction with capacitors), which are recyclable BTW and can be charged from renewable or nuclear power. Flywheels get dangerous once you store amounts of energy that are really meaningful to a car in them, and it's not something you can work past with different chemistry or mitigate with a fire suppression system. The fixed ones have armored casings and are kept in rooms where people don't stay for a reason.

Today's high-end electric cars are already driving plenty far (and fast) enough, they just cost too much, and the price is coming down fast. Look at that guy building the electric S2K for less than half the cost of a new Tesla Roadster.

chuckles wrote: What does it cost to charge these things? Interesting article in Sunday's "New York Times" by a guy who drove a new Tesla sedan on a several hundred mile road trip in California, using rapid charge stations apparently established by Tesla. 1000 pounds of batteries under the floor, range over 250 miles, charges take only an hour and are FREE to Tesla owners, but never a word about what it would add to your electric bill to plug the thing in at home. i'm sure it varies by location quite a bit.

Depends on your local rates, really. For me, overnight rates are about $.078 per KWh, and a full charge takes about 9KWh. So that means about 40 miles for well under a buck. Even at peak times, our juice only runs about $.16 per KWh. Your mileage (and power bill) may vary.

Costs for "public" charging vary wildly. Some businesses and municipalities maintain free charging stations, or credit card controlled stations that charge you actual cost of the power, or you can stop at a Car Charging, Inc. station and pay up to $2.50 per KWh and not even get kissed.

jg

GameboyRMH wrote: Today's high-end electric cars are already driving plenty far (and fast) enough, they just cost too much, and the price is coming down fast. Look at that guy building the electric S2K for less than half the cost of a new Tesla Roadster.

"Plenty" is relative. Most of the hype is around really great mileage. But that's not where the carrot is, in reality.

How far can you go at 20F, when you have to heat the interior as well? How far do you drive at 90F in Florida, where the a/c is working over time?

Fast isn't a problem- powerful electric motors are easy. And power output of a battery is fine, it's the input that's the problem.

Ever thought about how much energy you pump in 3 min? How far or how fast will 10 gal of gas take you? That's a massive amount of energy, even when lowered to the roughly 3 gal of equivalent that an electric car would take just to move the car (not heat or cool the interior).

"3 gal" of electricitiy currently takes all night.

(pun intentional)

Ignoring the cost.

And ignoring the amount of materials to have even 100M electric cars.

I certainly hope. And I certainly know a LOT of people are working their rear ends off finding solutions. Not for the lack of trying....

The newer cars with a 50-100mile range can quick-charge in half an hour, although it's not good for battery life. This is also somewhere capacitors could help - quick-charge the capacitors at a rate that would make batteries explode and then charge the battery from the capacitors over the next hour.

Electric cars often still have liquid-cooled components so heating's not a big problem although AC is.

In reply to alfadriver:

Some of the EV guys on diyelectriccar.com are starting to talk about their chargers in MPH. Sounds funny at first but makes perfect sense when you think about it.

In reply to GameboyRMH:

100 miles is maybe 4 gal? Half hour vs. 2 min?

Again, it's not the theoreticals or best of the best. It's the real world- if i drove one to work, until I could go back and forth on one charge, survive a 0f drive (parts are cooled, sure, but they are also less efficient cold, and need energy before the parts heat up to warm the cabin). 70 mile, a heater, and a recharge. And I like to take a short drive to get lunch.

I'm not saying that there hasn't been a LOT of progress- there has. What I am saying is that it's going to take a HUGE amount more to be really competitive. Especially in a place like Germany. I wish them luck, as I expect we will be part of it.

PHeller wrote: The electric vehicle will likely be the around town, commute, go get groceries vehicle. Manufactures should build cars around that use. I'm thinking if there was a $15,000 new electric, even if it only had a range of 150 miles, it would sell like hotcakes.

The problem is that...

Okay, let's back up a mo' so I can lay out a scenario.

You want to go shopping downtown in your major city. Parking is $10-20.

$10-20 extra in fuel, even in a 15mpg hog, will take you to the outer suburbs where there are similar high-end shopping centers with free parking.

People don't mind driving 30-40 miles one way just to go shopping. People can easily wreck an EV's range in one day.

It would take a MASSIVE increase in the cost of fuel to alter this already ingrained mentality. People tend to not change their ways until there is a massive benefit to changing, just the balance point isn't enough.

ransom wrote: Your point is utterly valid now, but I don't want to write off all of electrical vehicles due to limitations on current implementations.

Verily. We have no idea what storage breakthroughs can be made if there is enough drive to bother looking for them.

JG Pasterjak wrote:

1988RedT2 wrote:

JG Pasterjak wrote: Right now I think we're seeing a lot of Betamax answers, and we're waiting for a few VHSs to poke their heads above the fray. jg

Interesting analogy. So you're suggesting that the technologically superior solution will be E36 M3-canned in favor of the one that wins a popularity contest?

Zing! Point taken. I'll go back to the analogorium and come up with something better. jg

No, no, that's the PERFECT analogy.

When there was an EV mandate in the US, there was a negative effect on EV technology. The automakers realized that if they were going to bring something to market in a short time, they had to go with the imperfect contemporary technology (which wasn't much better than lead-acid) because they simply didn't have time to develop emerging technologies, and they didn't have the resources to do both.

SO, if the EV mandate hadn't been lifted, we'd have gotten VHS instead of Betamax.