History in the Making: Russian Invasion

Error404 said:

In reply to 93EXCivic :

My reading was that they normally cannot obstruct ships from returning to a home port but, in wartime or when threatened, they can close the straits to warships. With NATO activating the Response Force that could be twisted towards a "threat" and NATO "requesting" that they close the straits. Either way, that's above my paygrade. Either way it would trap the ships currently there but would prevent naval reinforcements from any late arriving allies or russian fleets.

I think the wording is vague enough that Turkley could do what they want. They are likely weighing the liklihood of Putin invading them if they close the strait (HIGH!) and realizing that it wouldn't help much anyway.

tuna55 said:

Error404 said:

In reply to 93EXCivic :

My reading was that they normally cannot obstruct ships from returning to a home port but, in wartime or when threatened, they can close the straits to warships. With NATO activating the Response Force that could be twisted towards a "threat" and NATO "requesting" that they close the straits. Either way, that's above my paygrade. Either way it would trap the ships currently there but would prevent naval reinforcements from any late arriving allies or russian fleets.

I think the wording is vague enough that Turkley could do what they want. They are likely weighing the liklihood of Putin invading them if they close the strait (HIGH!) and realizing that it wouldn't help much anyway.

If Putin invades Turkey, the balloon has gone up (they are a NATO member) and it will be tantamount to WWIII.  Would China sit it out or side with Russia? 

06HHR (Forum Supporter) said:

tuna55 said:

Error404 said:

In reply to 93EXCivic :

My reading was that they normally cannot obstruct ships from returning to a home port but, in wartime or when threatened, they can close the straits to warships. With NATO activating the Response Force that could be twisted towards a "threat" and NATO "requesting" that they close the straits. Either way, that's above my paygrade. Either way it would trap the ships currently there but would prevent naval reinforcements from any late arriving allies or russian fleets.

I think the wording is vague enough that Turkley could do what they want. They are likely weighing the liklihood of Putin invading them if they close the strait (HIGH!) and realizing that it wouldn't help much anyway.

If Putin invades Turkey, the balloon has gone up (they are a NATO member) and it will be tantamount to WWIII.  Would China sit it our or side with Russia? 

While that is true, and I hope it would work that way, if Turkey is weighing that option versus just not closing the strait, which maybe might not even help. I am guessing here, but that's my guess.

tuna55 said:

06HHR (Forum Supporter) said:

tuna55 said:

Error404 said:

In reply to 93EXCivic :

My reading was that they normally cannot obstruct ships from returning to a home port but, in wartime or when threatened, they can close the straits to warships. With NATO activating the Response Force that could be twisted towards a "threat" and NATO "requesting" that they close the straits. Either way, that's above my paygrade. Either way it would trap the ships currently there but would prevent naval reinforcements from any late arriving allies or russian fleets.

I think the wording is vague enough that Turkley could do what they want. They are likely weighing the liklihood of Putin invading them if they close the strait (HIGH!) and realizing that it wouldn't help much anyway.

If Putin invades Turkey, the balloon has gone up (they are a NATO member) and it will be tantamount to WWIII.  Would China sit it our or side with Russia? 

While that is true, and I hope it would work that way, if Turkey is weighing that option versus just not closing the strait, which maybe might not even help. I am guessing here, but that's my guess.

Or, since we are speculating, maybe Putin invades Turkey to test the strength of the NATO treaty?  See if all really will respond if one member is attacked, since he's the gas station for much of Europe maybe some members make the calculus they have too much to losse.  Far out, but we don't know the guy's state of mind these days, would he be willing to go that far?

Some high profile dissent within Russia, and insight into the general view of this war

So Russian negotiators are reported to be headed to Kyiv to speak to Zelennskly.

If Ukraine decides to relinquish the territories that Russia wanted to "free" and also end aspirations of joining NATO does Putin settle and stop or does he now want the whole thing?

Nick Comstock said:

So Russian negotiators are reported to be headed to Kyiv to speak to Zelennskly.

If Ukraine decides to relinquish the territories that Russia wanted to "free" and also end aspirations of joining NATO does Putin settle and stop or does he now want the whole thing?

If Zelensky sues for peace, I think Putin stops because this war is costly and isn't going like he planned. I hope Z doesn't though I don't have to like with the consequences of that firsthand.

In reply to Nick Comstock :

Allowing a (potentially NATO backed) democratic government to survive in that proximity to Russia and their puppets would be a loss for Putin. He already had the whole thing, and it blew up on him. In his view, it's all part of Russia (or the Soviet Union), so compromising would be him giving something up instead of gaining what he didn't have when this started.

In reply to 06HHR (Forum Supporter) :

Could be. So far Turkey is not poking that bear. I can't blame them exactly, but weakness is weakness.

CrustyRedXpress said:

Plenty of propaganda on both sides.

Important to remember that we're most susceptible to the kind that we secretly hope for.

 

That last line is SO hard for us all to remember, and so important not to forget. 
Well said. 

Ohhh my.  Anonymous hacked the Russian MOD. 

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/t1cwwr/hacktivist_group_anonymous_has_successfully/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Fueled by Caffeine said:

Ohhh my.  Anonymous hacked the Russian MOD. 

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/t1cwwr/hacktivist_group_anonymous_has_successfully/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

I'm curious if that's true and if they really "hacked it." For example, if you knew the format of my companies email address, it wouldn't be hard to go on LinkedIn and find people that work here and display their email address. 

It seems that vast majority of these publicized "hacks" are nothing more than DDoS attacks you can with software found online.

Fueled by Caffeine said:

Ohhh my.  Anonymous hacked the Russian MOD. 

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/t1cwwr/hacktivist_group_anonymous_has_successfully/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

I love how so many people chronically underestimate Anonymous.  

Its kind of like here. There are wildly varying levels of skills attached to GRM, just as there are attached to Anonymous.  Some people here can't build for E36 M3, but can drive a car really well, some have horrible driving skills but make beautiful machinery, some do both.  Over at Anonymous some people are hacks, some just hack, and some HACK.

Mr_Asa said:

Fueled by Caffeine said:

Ohhh my.  Anonymous hacked the Russian MOD. 

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/t1cwwr/hacktivist_group_anonymous_has_successfully/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

I love how so many people chronically underestimate Anonymous.  

Its kind of like here. There are wildly varying levels of skills attached to GRM, just as there are attached to Anonymous.  Some people here can't build for E36 M3, but can drive a car really well, some have horrible driving skills but make beautiful machinery, some do both.  Over at Anonymous some people are hacks, some just hack, and some HACK.

 

I don't do either thing well. Thanks for making me sad.

In reply to STM317 :

That makes no sense. Taking Ukraine puts him right in the crosshairs of NATO, with a much longer border to defend and no buffer country. This was never about NATO. 

In reply to z31maniac :

The second bit is their passwords in unsalted md5 hash. Apparently easy tk brute force.  Like I know. 
 

anywyas thst read it thread is great. The one guy who got the WhatsApp numbers of Russian military higher ups abs is getting blocked by telling them off. Hahaha

In reply to bobzilla :

Hey man, you're funny at least, and a blast to hang out with.

LS4.9 not withstanding, I feel the same way.  Hell, with that I keep wondering how I am able to continue not failing.

Nick Comstock said:

So Russian negotiators are reported to be headed to Kyiv to speak to Zelennskly.

if by negotiators they mean assassins, i'd believe it.

I'm wondering if taking Chernobyl right away was to prevent Ukraine from weaponizing it.

It's 500 miles south west of Moscow which puts it nicely upwind of Moscow until mid April; super easy dirty bomb ready to be leveraged. 

Thoughts??? 

RX Reven' said:

I'm wondering if taking Chernobyl right away was to prevent Ukraine from weaponizing it.

It's 500 miles south west of Moscow which puts it nicely upwind of Moscow until mid April; super easy dirty bomb ready to be leveraged. 

Thoughts??? 

It's not really dirty enough to make that big of a difference at this point. People would get sick eventually, but they wouldn't be dropping dead on the battlefield.

AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter) said:

Nick Comstock said:

So Russian negotiators are reported to be headed to Kyiv to speak to Zelennskly.

if by negotiators they mean assassins, i'd believe it.

Could be,  I fell asleep and woke up to a random video reporting this info and suggesting all hostilities will be ended before Monday.  I have no proof to the validity of anything but I thought it was an interesting question. 

In reply to Nick Comstock :

If this is true...  https://thehill.com/policy/international/russia/595815-ukrainian-forces-target-russian-airfield-near-border-report Then I see an enraged putin getting deeper.

Another, "just a thought" regarding NATO involvement.  Putin's committed a big chunk of his regular troops to the Ukrainian front.  If the war were to rapidly widen, he wouldn't be in a position to counter with conventional warfare.  Which would point to WW3 happening pretty quickly.  Let's all hope it doesn't come to that.  Of course, this also means that Putin's threats against other countries are relatively toothless right now, beyond the usual cyberwarfare.

In reply to bobzilla :

More than one news outlet has reported that story, but it looks to have originated from Russian media.

Fueled by Caffeine said:

In reply to z31maniac :

The second bit is their passwords in unsalted md5 hash. Apparently easy tk brute force.  Like I know.

I hope they tried reversing the hashes of the higher-ups and credential stuffing with them before they announced the hack