History in the Making: Russian Invasion

Word is that the higher-ups in the Pentagon are quietly very pleased with Ukraine's efforts, not for what they've gained, but for how they've performed in the process. Last year's failed offensive was very, how should I say it, Soviet in its execution. By contrast, this operation is leveraging Western technology and tactics, moving fast, keeping the Russians on the back foot, and maximizing the advantages the Ukrainians have available.

Whatever their plan is, the Ukrainians are at least making noises about occupation. They've appointed a military administrator, and are talking about opening humanitarian corridors into both Ukraine and Russia. How much of this is posturing remains to be seen, but if they prove themselves more humane to the Russian population than Putin's regime, one can imagine word getting around.

I'm seeing reports that another column of soldiers on their way to the Kursk front got HIMARS'd.  Some speculation that the reason they are still driving in tight columns instead of spreading out is because the leadership is afraid of giving anyone the opportunity to desert.

In reply to eastsideTim :

It's not an unreasonable concern. One of Ukraine's objectives in this has been to replenish their stockpile of Russian prisoners to use in exchanges, and they've accrued a fair number already - quite a few large groups surrendering. Many of them are raw conscripts and of limited intel value, but perfectly useful as trade goods.

Expect another round of purges in the Russian high command. Someone has to be blamed, and it won't be Putin.

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Summer 2024 has been pretty crazy so far guys:

Some stuff (Ukrainians still seem to be advancing):

Western part of Kursk Special Military Operation:

Russian military bloggers reporting another military column could be destroyed near Korenevo

Look over here, not over there (seems highly unlikely 12 ATACMS where launched):

The Telegram channel "Krymskiy Veter" reported explosions and fires in the vicinity of the temporarily occupied Kerch. Presumably, the Russian anti-aircraft missile and gun system "Pantsir-S1" was hit.

Earlier, the Russian Defense Ministry complained about an attack by two unmanned boats and five drones. According to the department, all of them were "intercepted" and "destroyed" over the Black Sea.

According to pro-Russian channels, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing a massive strike on Crimea in September. Additionally, Russian sources claim that the Crimean Bridge was allegedly attacked overnight by 12 ATACMS missiles. Which were of course shot down.

Seym River bridge in Glushkovo is confirmed down.

That bridge is to the west of the Special Operation, and seems to speak to what the Ukrainians are trying to gain:

I watched someones assessment of the situation and he had an interesting guess as to a possible goal:  Get Russia to start a general mobilization.

This may sound a bit silly (more Russian soldiers!?), but with the current situation, which is a bit embarrassing (can't even defend Russian land), the fact that general mobilization can call from the entire population (yes, even the "better" people in Moscow) and how bad it went last time (old men etc) it could be very destabilizing for Russia if they did have to do that.

It also should be noted (and I think it has?) that someone counted the number of "Red Lines" that Russia declared (you know, nuclear fire etc) and have been crossed.  I think the count was something like 30!  This SMO likely breaks 8 to 10 of them!

It's also interesting to note how very good Ukraine has been with operational security during this.  Pretty much all the info on this is comming from within Russia!   Wild contrast to the initial Russian invasion!

Something to look out for:

Ruzzian z-channels started to say that Ukraine is getting ready to strike the own Zaporizhzha NPP and Kursk NPP. This information (bullE36 M3) is also shared by the Rus media.
They say that Ukraine will use the „dirty bomb“ in the coming hours or days.

A few days ago Russia blamed Ukraine for damaging the Zaporizhzhia which resulted in a fire in one of the cooling towers.  Russia said it was the result of a drone attack... that somehow got into the bottom of the cooling tower... which is mostly full of water.   It is suspected of course that Russia lite some tires on fire as a bit of a false flag situation.  Now that the Ukrainians are close to another power plant.  This might be part of a big plan.

For those who are curious, the cooling towers (this one apparently is inactive anyway) have no radiation in them really, they are part of the secondary cooling system, which is the system that cools the coolant that cools the reactor.  So, kind of like a car radiator that surrounds a normal car radiator, so any oil that got into the primary radiator is not getting into the second one (in most all cases).

Nice to see russia having to bomb their own territory.

Another bridge down.  This one west of the previous one. (my highlights)  Less connected than the previous one (which is a major road), but does effectively cut off that entire area south of the river.  The Russian of course are trying to setup pontoon bridges to compensate. 

Of note (arrow) is what appears to be a rather large town city (Tyotkino, around 5,000 population, but there is a smaller town just north of it). 

The Russian withdrew from the shaded area across the river there, and blew the bridges.  That town is potentially in a very bad situation and has almost no supply line.  There is certainly a potential for a desperate situation to develop and hopefully some large surrenders since I would suspect this area is heavily occupied by conscripts.

More war crimes:

Ukrainian ambulance was attacked by FPV drone while transporting wounded soldiers back from a field hospital.  2 medics killed.  

Good to see Ukraine picking up more Russian territory, but someone at CNN needs to go back to school for math.  

As Queen once said: "...and another one gone, another one gone, another one bits the dust".  I read something about the potential for a battalion sized unit being cut off.  Not exactly sure where, but I would suspect near the bottom part of the map shown below.  The pink lines in the map below are the Ukrainian boarder BTW.

Ukrainian forces may have destroyed the third and final bridge over the Seym River in the village of Karyzh in Russia’s Kursk region, cutting off Russian troops from supply routes in the Hlushkivskyi district, according to the Russian Telegram channel Astra on Aug. 19.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukrainian-forces-destroy-last-bridge-in-kursk-region-encircling-russian-troops-50444067.html

The Russians have already constructed a pontoon bridge near the first bridge (which, by far, is the most connected to major roads).  Expect things flying towards it:

Russia is still having strange explosions and fires at it's refineries and storage facilities:

Rostov publics report a new explosion at an oil depot in Proletarsk, which injured 18 firefighters.

Apparently, the fire, which has not been extinguished for two days, has spread to other tanks.

Yesterday, two fires were visible on visual control and satellite images (2, 3). We are waiting for new images.

It is important to emphasize that this is not just another burning oil depot. This is the entire Kavkaz plant of Rosrezerv - a huge strategic facility with 74 tanks. It is clear that in this case, at best, only a few tanks are burning, but whether you like it or not, the facility will have to be reinforced with air defense systems, which Russia needs at the front.

I mentioned this incursion by Ukraine being a "trap" for Russia. A lot of why I said that is because moving assets are exposed assets. Once the trenches are dug, the pace of war tends to drag down, but Ukraine seems to be doing quite well against the reinforcements before they have a chance to hunker down. And the bonus of now having territory to trade back to the enemy make this seem like the first really crafty move on their part in a while.

Blowing those bridges may have two purposes: first, to isolate the Ukrainian left flank and cut off any Russians south of the Seym for capture or destruction, and second, to potentially offer an easily defensible boundary for Ukrainian occupation forces (consider how effective the lower Dniepr has been in that capacity). True, they are not occupying the area south of the river at the moment, but I suspect they could relatively easily. This may be one of their fallback options when Russian pressure toward the front increases.

From a quick google search, it appears Russia has lost more artillery in this war than the US actually has.  Dang.

Also lost twice the current US active inventory of MBTs.

Apparently the boys in blue and yellow are HIMARSing the piss out of those pontoon bridges.

Additionally they launched the largest drone strike on Moscow in a year or so.

Another good general update with Professor Justin Bronk that talks a good amount about the F16's.  Remember those?  I suspect the Russians are not paying as much attention to them now as they were a few weeks ago.  Also covers the general war situation later in the video.  

Some interesting highlights:  The F-16's appear (based on released pictures) to be reasonably updated A versions, so they should be capable of using a very good variety of weapons and defensive systems.  The Russians have lost two Mig-29's in the recent offensive (likely from lofting guided bombs) , which speaks a bit to how aggressive they are being.  The Russian air activity has been noticeably reduced as the result of the Ukrainian air base attacks (glide bombs are still a major issue for the Ukrainians).  The size of Russia (historically a big advantage) is working against them now, as it is going to be very difficult to defend such spread out facilities from the drone attacks, which are becoming rather common (Ukraine, and others, are making a lot of them).

He is a bit up in the air how the incursion (and the resources used) will work out for Ukraine in the long term, still a lot of unknowns going on.

Marinovka airfield (near Volograd, which used to be Stalingrad) was hit. An Su-34 base.  Unsure if any planes where hit:

That oil depot is still on fire.  Fire is approaching kerosene tanks.  Some big "developments" may be coming:

Very large explosion and fire from ferry in Kavkaz port (across the Kerch straight).  Looks like it may have been carrying oil/gas train cars.

The momentum certainly seems to have shifted Ukraine's way. Wasn't there some leadership turnover recently? Perhaps the old guys were too conservative?

This seems to be more of a reflection of Ukraine receiving the support it was looking like it might not get for a while.  They were clearly in a holding situation for a while (and running low on ammo etc).

The situation on the Russian side, offensive wise, really hasn't changed much. They are still continuing their slow advances in the eastern area.  They seem to be semi-ignoring the Ukrainian advances as insignificant.  See news note below.

As noted in the (end of the) video, this also may have something to do with potential political changes in the US.  If they are effectively forced in to a negotiation with Russia (which, honestly, I am not sure how much of a potential reality that is), they really need to have something to negotiate with (pain points).

The Kremlin appears to have launched an intricate messaging campaign aimed at justifying to its domestic audience why Russia is prioritizing maintaining the initiative in eastern Ukraine over immediately expelling Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast. 

The Kremlin may be using this messaging campaign to afford itself time and space to respond to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast after achieving its offensive objectives in eastern Ukraine.

A fairly moving account from an unlikely source. (r/NCD is mostly military based E36 M3-posting.  High level of memes and dumbassery)

https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/s/pbtWnIiMvN