MadScientistMatt said:
93EXCivic said:
In reply to tuna55 :
Yes. This is a seriously dangerous position for the world and much rests on the mental state of Putin.
Two things I would point out, British and US intelligence seems to have a very good idea of what is happening in the Kremlin. While many of us said war wouldn't happen, they seemed fairly sure of it. They did originally miss the first date but they nailed the day and time it actually happened.
The main thing they seemed to have missed was they thought Putin was planning to bother with a pretext for a war instead of deciding "I'm berkleying Putin and I don't need a pretext."
To be fair, there were a few seemingly halfhearted attempts at false flags like that car bomb going of in Eastern Ukraine.
02Pilot said:
Recent developments in Belarus are interesting. First, the talks between Ukraine and Russia have ended inconclusively, but indications are that more talks are planned. Both sides are publicly taking hard lines, and there's a lot of daylight between them. Public positions are not, however, always indicative of what's actually possible. A deal behind closed doors that allows Putin to publicly appear to have delivered something (most likely Ukrainian neutralization and exclusion from NATO), while also securing Ukraine's western orientation and defensive capabilities (as seen in Finland, perhaps), is the combination most likely to yield an actual agreement.
I would be amazed if there was ending conclusive out of the first day of talks. At least 75% of me, thought the Russians would walk in with some extremely hardline demands not willing to budge and the talks would be over and Russia would say see they don't want peace talks. So at least in my mind, this is a major plus.
The main issue I don't see how they come to an agreement on is the land that Russia claims or claims is independent. Other Putin objectives there are ways around I think.
tuna55 said:
John Welsh said:
EU agrees to finance arms delivery to Ukraine
The European Union agreed for the first time to jointly finance weapons deliveries to a third country to help Ukraine fend off the Russian invasion, EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said.
A number of European countries including Norway, Italy and Finland have announced they will provide arms to Ukraine.
Moscow warns against supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine
Russia’s foreign ministry has said those supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine will bear responsibility should they be used during Russia’s military campaign there.
The ministry added that the steps the European Union has taken against Russia will not be left without a harsh response.
Love that last line. A country that's running out of fuel, having its tanks stolen by gypsies, towed by farmers, taunted by little old ladies, and they are going to start a land war with the entirety of Europe? If not nuclear, then it's a joke.
I wonder seriously how many people in the nuclear chain of command will be ready or willing to do so if commanded.
And his rich "buddies" will wonder who they would be supposed to sell oil to.
wae
PowerDork
2/28/22 3:12 p.m.
In reply to 93EXCivic :
I realize that we have to operate in the realpolitik of the world and all, but it really chafes at my sense of propriety and fairness that a bully like Putin can invade a sovereign nation with no real pretext and winds up getting a lollypop and a pat on the head if he simply goes back to doing what he's supposed to do in the first place.
I know, I know, the world isn't fair.
I'll try to respond to the questions asked:
I think Ukraine would be fine with the Finland model. Cooperation with NATO, access to the Western arsenal, but officially neutral. Note that today that requested immediate accession to the EU, not NATO.
What level of protest becomes untenable for the regime is an open question. Protest movements are funny things, and a rarely predictable in terms of how far they will go. Often, it's a particular event or person that shifts the protests from demonstration to more active measures. Exactly what that catalyst is in Russia and Belarus, I do not know. Look at the demographics of the protests - the more disparate groups are involved (age, occupation, economic status), the more likely they will gain traction. That said, Hong Kong has shown that even broad-based protest movements can be squashed effectively, but security personnel morale in China is very likely higher than in Russia or Belarus.
Agreed that continuing talks is positive, and I don't think anyone expected a cease-fire at this early stage. Motivation to reach a deal comes from proximity to defeat; the closer a nation is to losing, the more they want to end the fighting. I don't think either side feels like they can't win militarily at this point, so it's going to come down to how much they're willing to concede. That calculus will continue to change, but the momentum is clearly with Ukraine right now. Remember the Clausewitz dictum: "War is policy by other means."
wae said:
In reply to 93EXCivic :
I realize that we have to operate in the realpolitik of the world and all, but it really chafes at my sense of propriety and fairness that a bully like Putin can invade a sovereign nation with no real pretext and winds up getting a lollypop and a pat on the head if he simply goes back to doing what he's supposed to do in the first place.
I know, I know, the world isn't fair.
It's easy to think that, but he's lost a lot of political capitol. As much of a tyrant as he is, the people around him are going to start getting uneasy. Rich oligarchs want to buy British football clubs and hang out on their yachts in Spain. This is getting tougher for them.
Even if the Ruble doesn't completely crater, interest rates for Russia and Russian businesses are jumping waaaay up.
If he's not able to take Ukraine and hold it long enough to install a puppet government, he and Russia are coming out worse than they went in. The costs are just going to be more subtle and harder for regular people to understand.
He might be able to get concessions that Ukraine won't join NATO, but they are still not in a position to do so anyway.
wae said:
In reply to 93EXCivic :
I realize that we have to operate in the realpolitik of the world and all, but it really chafes at my sense of propriety and fairness that a bully like Putin can invade a sovereign nation with no real pretext and winds up getting a lollypop and a pat on the head if he simply goes back to doing what he's supposed to do in the first place.
I know, I know, the world isn't fair.
Yeah. But ultimately I think he has done damage to the Russia economy and international standing that will take years if not decades to repair. If the Ukrainian military continues to hold out and the government stays strong, the money issues in Russia will probably force him to deal in which case, the conventional threat from the Russia military is pretty much gone as if you are a country equipped by the west why would you be scared.
So yeah it is a bit like getting a lollypop but not before getting a big black eye. (this all assumes the Ukrainian military holds the Russians off, the Russians don't do anything super crazy and both parties are able to find a deal).
Plus the loss of a lot of soft power things like the F1 Grand Prix, Champions League final, etc. Those might not seem like much but I guarantee you they do matter to Putin as it allows him to show off on a world stage.
02Pilot said:
... Motivation to reach a deal comes from proximity to defeat; the closer a nation is to losing, the more they want to end the fighting. I don't think either side feels like they can't win militarily at this point...
I don't think Russia's concerns are really military. They're economic. The banking sanctions are going to hurt Russia pretty badly.
I think it's a matter of if the Ukrainians can withstand Russian military forces longer than Russia can take not being able to exchange the Ruble for foreign currency.
93EXCivic said:
Plus the loss of a lot of soft power things like the F1 Grand Prix, Champions League final, etc. Those might not seem like much but I guarantee you they do matter to Putin as it allows him to show off on a world stage.
FIFA just banned Russia from the World Cup.
tuna55
MegaDork
2/28/22 3:42 p.m.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ups-fedex-halting-shipments-russia-ukraine-2022-02-27/?fbclid=IwAR3bGAKRrM0riznGS7bAP8gGWTQIQB0NK1JOX1SMJ4K-zbJe_aqMOgKs1bk
Russia is going to turn into an even more miserable place. You can't fly in or out, you can't get anything shipped to you, you have no sports, your military is gone and pissed, the world is rallying against you, even Switzerland is against you, even the Taliban has told you to chill.
Beer Baron said:
93EXCivic said:
Plus the loss of a lot of soft power things like the F1 Grand Prix, Champions League final, etc. Those might not seem like much but I guarantee you they do matter to Putin as it allows him to show off on a world stage.
FIFA just banned Russia from the World Cup.
Honestly the reason I didn't list that is the Russian national teams is kind E36 M3 anyway so I figured it was a long shot for them to actually make it.
In reply to Beer Baron :
Plus that Russia has a very small economy (smaller than New York, Texas and maybe Ohio) and as posted before, basically only makes money off of Gazprom selling petroleum. Russia just can't keep a long-term war going economically, and as they seem to have stalled, could quickly hit a point where an entrenched and rapidly-hardening and backed Ukraine just becomes a great big money-sink.
Beer Baron said:
02Pilot said:
... Motivation to reach a deal comes from proximity to defeat; the closer a nation is to losing, the more they want to end the fighting. I don't think either side feels like they can't win militarily at this point...
I don't think Russia's concerns are really military. They're economic. The banking sanctions are going to hurt Russia pretty badly.
I think it's a matter of if the Ukrainians can withstand Russian military forces longer than Russia can take not being able to exchange the Ruble for foreign currency.
You're quite correct, and my wording was sloppy. I did not mean to suggest that non-military factors were irrelevant, but simply to address the fact that the possibility of military success (by their own definitions) remained present in both combatant parties. I do not discount the importance of military results to Russia, however; it chose the method for this conflict, and if it is defeated there will be widespread repercussions in the Russian military (think US after Vietnam).
Because the sanctions do not originate with Ukraine, there is an indirect relationship between the effects of sanctions and results on the battlefield. In other words, Russia could win the war but lose the peace, because defeating Ukraine would not relieve Russia of the sanctions regime.
Lads and I were actually talking a bit about the economics in a server I'm in, as apart of the Atlantic Article someone posted here about what trapping their finances and cutting off SWIFT really means long-term. There is a chance that either the West could bankrupt the Russian nation completely, or could make it easily predicated upon by China snapping up capital in exchange for liquidity to keep the nation going. China is a very pragmatic being now, and I could see the allure of more territory and influence outweighing sanctions or worldwide finger wagging... once the heat has been taken down a bit.
The other awful thought, is that in brankrupting the Rubel in sanctions we could just be setting ourselves up for enemy #1 in 20 years time, when a youthful populace of Russians could desire some kind of generational 'vengeance' against the West for trying to stop a war at the expense of their future. But I'm no world leader and I have at best, an "intelligent idiots" concept of economics on that scale, so hopefully this was done with an obvious path back to solvency when the guns stop firing.
84FSP
UltraDork
2/28/22 3:58 p.m.
While agreeing with the above points I have a concern about how long the world will continue to rally around Ukraine and support the sanctions. Oil is expected to break $150/bbl. How long will the average citizen (of anywhere) be able to take that at the same time as inflation and interest rates going up?
Hoping for a quick Russian overthrow of Putin and a quick win for Ukraine over Russia not necessarily in that order. Doubtful we'll get either but my coffee cup ia half full.
US expels 12 Russian UN staff for non-diplomat activities
The United States has ordered twelve members of Russia’s mission to the United Nations to leave America for engaging in non-diplomatic activities.
“Those diplomats that have been asked to leave the United States were engaged in activities that were not in accordance with their responsibilities and obligations as diplomats,” Deputy US Ambassador Richard Mills told the UN Security Council, without elaborating further.
mtn
MegaDork
2/28/22 4:06 p.m.
IIHF has suspended all Russian and Belarusian National Teams and Clubs from participation in every age category and in all IIHF competitions or events until further notice. This means that World Juniors in 2023 have been removed from Russia.
This is a really big deal in ice hockey.
tuna55
MegaDork
2/28/22 4:06 p.m.
tuna55
MegaDork
2/28/22 4:08 p.m.
GIRTHQUAKE said:
Lads and I were actually talking a bit about the economics in a server I'm in, as apart of the Atlantic Article someone posted here about what trapping their finances and cutting off SWIFT really means long-term. There is a chance that either the West could bankrupt the Russian nation completely, or could make it easily predicated upon by China snapping up capital in exchange for liquidity to keep the nation going. China is a very pragmatic being now, and I could see the allure of more territory and influence outweighing sanctions or worldwide finger wagging... once the heat has been taken down a bit.
The other awful thought, is that in brankrupting the Rubel in sanctions we could just be setting ourselves up for enemy #1 in 20 years time, when a youthful populace of Russians could desire some kind of generational 'vengeance' against the West for trying to stop a war at the expense of their future. But I'm no world leader and I have at best, an "intelligent idiots" concept of economics on that scale, so hopefully this was done with an obvious path back to solvency when the guns stop firing.
I expect many of the sanctions to roll back quickly if the Russians and Ukrainians come to an agreement. Those sanctions will have on cost on the West as well.
tuna55
MegaDork
2/28/22 4:10 p.m.
Interesting...
Google Maps live traffic data turned off in Ukraine
Google has disabled live traffic data in Ukraine from being displayed on its Maps app in the wake of the Russian invasion.
The app displays how busy roads are by collecting anonymous data from Android smartphones, but it has now been switched off in the region temporarily to protect users.
Google confirmed the move to the BBC, having told Reuters it took the action for the safety of local communities, after consulting regional authorities.
While traffic data has been disabled, normal maps navigation features are still functioning properly in the area.
Find out more about Google's move here.
MadScientistMatt said:
93EXCivic said:
...They did originally miss the first date but they nailed the day and time it actually happened.
The main thing they seemed to have missed was they thought Putin was planning to bother with a pretext for a war instead of deciding "I'm berkleying Putin and I don't need a pretext."
This is very much not the case from what I was seeing. I will at least say, he was certainly TRYING to create a pretext.
Russia today (Russian propaganda, but useful for seeing what they are trying to project) had many stories on Nazi groups in Ukraine, and why was the world was ignoring the genocide that was going on there (I am suspicious there topics were not covered in the recent talks). There were also a number of "attacks" in the breakaway areas in the days before the invasion. Right before the invasion there were a number of artillery attacks by "Russia" in what appeared to be an attempt to goad the Ukrainians to respond and thus justify attack.
I can only guess, but making it very clear to everyone, that the west was expecting Putin to setup justification attacks / situations had to take a LOT of air out of taking the ones that happened seriously. A lot of restraint from Ukraine was probably also helpful.
He did of course essentially say F' it, likely because his other plan(s) clearly was not working.
In reply to 93EXCivic :
It will be interesting how Putin resurfaces out of this, because he likes to be in the for front of everything. I would highly doubt they would send a proxy in his place unless his health takes a turn. I also wonder how Russian oil will be impacted, because the current American policies are not seeking relief on oil internally and externally, will Russia be let back in. The real winner of all of this still seems to be China.
