History in the Making: Russian Invasion

Interesting article on the situation:

https://www.wired.com/story/putin-nuclear-threat-ukraine-war-escalation

As a quick update on the Space Station (after that Russian official made his grade school threats) from (paraphrased from Scott Manley):

The station should be fine, orbit wise, for a couple of years.  Although orbital adjustments currently require a Russian ship to do, they could likely be done by a Dragon if needed (as noted, no hurry though). Other options are possible if needed, and there should be time.

Of note, I think it is highly fortunate that SpaceX has come along so quickly to provide an alternative to Soyuz.  There are still a number of Russian engines out there are various rockets, but nothing to affect US launches (Atlas already has all then engines they need, because it's being retired).  It would have really sucked to have to have kissed the Russians ass to get our astronauts back.

Russia is running out of things to hold over people.  Now... if we could figure out the gas situation.  I have read the US has sent enough gas to get Europe through the summer, but restocking and going into next winter could be an issue.

So I lost where I read it but essential Russia has a four level version of our DEFCON. They were at 1 and have now moved to 2. So not good but hardly the Cuban missile crisis.

John Welsh said:

Interesting... 

Google Maps live traffic data turned off in Ukraine

Google has disabled live traffic data in Ukraine from being displayed on its Maps app in the wake of the Russian invasion.

The app displays how busy roads are by collecting anonymous data from Android smartphones, but it has now been switched off in the region temporarily to protect users.

Google confirmed the move to the BBC, having told Reuters it took the action for the safety of local communities, after consulting regional authorities.

While traffic data has been disabled, normal maps navigation features are still functioning properly in the area.

Find out more about Google's move here.

Some accounts coming out of the Ukraine (in this case, not the news, but something I heard from an acquaintence with relatives there) indicate that private car trips aren't being allowed, at least in some areas. Not much point in getting realtime traffic data if you aren't allowed to be on the road anyway.

In reply to 93EXCivic...

That's it then, we're going from off-white to cream or maybe not, who cares.

For me, threatening to crash the ISS was Russia's shark jumping moment.

I realize that people are getting killed but there's a component of Russia becoming a bigger and bigger joke by the hour.

This isn't 1940, we have Meme's now.

RX Reven' said:

In reply to 93EXCivic...

That's it then, we're going from off-white to cream or maybe not, who cares.

For me, threatening to crash the ISS was Russia's shark jumping moment.

I realize that people are getting killed but there's a component of Russia becoming a bigger and bigger joke by the hour.

This isn't 1940, we have Meme's now.

Enormous is on there twice. 

In reply to z31maniac :

I think Natural is supposed to be "Super Triple Enormous Risk" but it wouldn't fit unless we reduced the font size and stuff. 

RX Reven' said:

In reply to 93EXCivic...

That's it then, we're going from off-white to cream or maybe not, who cares.

For me, threatening to crash the ISS was Russia's shark jumping moment.

I realize that people are getting killed but there's a component of Russia becoming a bigger and bigger joke by the hour.

This isn't 1940, we have Meme's now.

Speaking of, I think I can take him down now.  He is powerless. 

I thought of another concept from WWII that could come into play here.  As we are seeing, lots of outside support going to Ukraine.  There certainly is a possibility that if this goes on much longer (seems likely at this point?) this could turn into a bit of proxy war of sorts.  That is, Russia vs Ukraine (+ most of Europe and the US).  Now currently it looks like equipment, but I am sure Ukraine would not turn back mercenaries (paid by who you ask?... who knows... it's a shell company...).

So, in WWII, prior to the US entry, the Chinese where fighting the Japanese invasion and they needed pilots for their planes (which just happened to be US planes).  Because the US was not involved, they could not supply pilots, buuuutt, if some pilots decided to resign their commissions from the US military they could join the AVG (American Volunteer Group) and be paid to fly for China. Probably the most famous of these was Greg "Pappy" Boyington of Black Sheep Squadron fame.  It seems likely some US pilots willing to do this and get a chance at blasting some Ruskies out of the sky (fighter pilot mentality and all).

I could see something like this happening in Ukraine, both in the air and on the ground (even tanks?).  The planes of course would need airstrips, but it's sounding like there might be some still under Ukrainian control.  It could mean really bad news for Belarus if they get convinced to cross the boarder, because guess who they would run into?

In reply to aircooled :

I'm pretty sure that the post that captain downshift put up in Cyrillic a few pages back was exactly that. Ukraine looking for "volunteers". 

It wouldn't surprise me if the well heeled soldier wannabe crowd was already boots on the ground for an opportunity to light some javelins off against Russian arms. 

The 13 Ukrainians on Snake Island, the ones who told the Russian warship to go berkeley itself, have apparently survived. They fought back two Russian assaults until they were forced to surrender when they ran out of ammunition.

Well E36 M3.  Elon actually got Starlink recievers in country.  Looks like a truck full have arrived at least. 

And in contrast to a previous comment.  This was not Elon grandstanding.  A Ukrainian official requested them, he agreed, and obviously, has provided them, rather rapidly I would say.

In reply to aircooled :

I'm just surprised as he normally overpromises and underdelivers 

In reply to Mndsm :

I discussed this with my bandmates last night. We're thinking of we could get a truckload of PA gear into Kyiv that it could have the potential for something epic to happen, including potentially our own demise. Two of us won't fly though, so unfortunately it's unlikely to happen. 

I think its interesting how we're testing the limits of the whole "outside interference" thing Putin warned about. Well, I mean, they are too, with Belarus and Chechen support in Ukraine. 

But while we're not putting any boots on the ground, we're definitely getting our feet wet with the amount of intelligence and air support we're giving the Ukrainians. Some other countries are going further, saying they might even attempt to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine. 

If Mosow gets really bomb happy on Kyiv and we're facing a civilian humanitarian crisis, will the UN and NATO just say "ahh hell with it, we're getting involved" and how much will that anger the Kremlin?

Alternate probably far fetched thought, the more I have read Putin strikes me as a deeply paranoid man who is seems very scared of dying. He is also a man who has aided the Russian mafia in becoming the richest organized crime organization in the world and an organization is supposed to have many contacts within both the Russian government and among the oligarchs of Russia. I wonder if he sees more danger from within and attempts to get out of this because of that.

In reply to Pete Gossett (Forum Supporter) :

Being in Florida I've met more than one person with a .50 and a deathwish. 

In completely anecdotal newshttps://youtu.be/oT6p2km8Ayw this is one of my favorite bands, and he's taken to putting no war in his descriptions, which I actually found.....kind of surprising for Russian death core. I respect the man even more now. 

In reply to pheller :

I'm guessing if NATO gets involved Russia might actually back down. They're already losing against a criminally under prepared Ukrainian army. The last thing they need is a bunch of angried up well trained EXTRA soldiers backing those weapons. 

In reply to pheller :

This no fly zone idea is a great way to start WW3. I am hoping since the US said no, the rest of Europe will back off of that idea. That is basically declaring war on Russia.

I hate to say it but other then turning off the gas, continuing current sanctions and continuing to send weapons, I don't see anything else we can do for the Ukrainians

Another tidbit.  Ukraine has made a successful drone attack on troops massing near Kiev.  They had a number of successes with them.  What I find interesting about that is the Russians almost certainly have a S-400 setup in that area (elite forces, have been there a while) and those are supposed to be capable of taking out even cruise missiles are are supposed to present a significant threat to even modern aircraft.

I do remember a report of an S-400 actually being taken out by a drone a few years ago in Syria.  So maybe yet another example of a Russian system that doesn't quite do what it is supposed to do.

Of interest is these drones are supplied by Turkey, and where the same ones Russia was pushing Turkey to stop supplying to Ukraine as they are taking out their artillery (that was attempting to shot Nazi's I assume).  Also of note, Turkey purchased S-400 systems from Russia(!)  This of course was a ridiculous move for a (supposed) NATO member, but probably allowed them to develop the drone to specifically dodge the S-400!

With Mother Russia's money locked up all over the world how is Russia going to pay it' troops?

Noddaz said:

With Mother Russia's money locked up all over the world how is Russia going to pay it' troops?

Hahahaha... "pay"

In reply to 93EXCivic :

That's kind of what I wonder about. How much can we really do short of actually stepping between Russia and Ukraine? 

Even if the UN pleads with Russia to stop, it can't do much to actually force it without tempting nuclear fits of rage. 

It's like a situation where a guy with a gun is being an shiny happy person. You can try to reason with him, you can try to threaten him with legal action, but in the end, he's going to be an shiny happy person until somebody fires a shot, because otherwise, he's got nothing to fear. Unfortunately, firing a shot in this case would be very bad for all of us. Hence, I'm in favor of nobody having guns and we just bloody each other up with knives occasionally. 

In reply to pheller :

Cage fight for world supremacy. Vlad the impaler Putin vs .... (Insert favorite MMA person here)