In reply to pheller :
To pharaphase RocknRolla, "[Putin] wants [war] where the law won't allow. Of course [Xi] will come through. But he will rake that Russian for every rouble he can get."
In reply to pheller :
To pharaphase RocknRolla, "[Putin] wants [war] where the law won't allow. Of course [Xi] will come through. But he will rake that Russian for every rouble he can get."
Supposedly Putin's propaganda victory article that got leaked by the author. Not sure what to make of this since it seems to have been composed for an audience with much a higher reading/comprehension level than I would expect from the general public.
An article by the propaganda publication RIA Novosti, which was to be published after the occupation of Ukraine, is preserved in the Web Archive. The Kremlin’s propaganda publication RIA-Novosti accidentally published an article that was to be published after the rapid occupation of Ukraine. It was quickly removed, but the Internet Archive web service managed to save it. https://mil.in.ua/en/news/brave-new-world-of-putin-an-article-by-the-propaganda-publication-ria-novosti-which-was-to-be-published-after-the-occupation-of-ukraine/
In reply to NOHOME :
Wow. That's some stuff in there.
In reply to NOHOME :
Those are all certainly words...
I don't understand what fantasy land these guys live in. Russia's GDP is like the same as Florida's. Their military looks like a bit of a paper tiger (admittedly armed with nukes). Their national economy is now in a nose dive. They have managed to more effectively re-unite a splitting west then we have seen a long time. Led to countries increasing their defense spending. Even if they take Ukraine at what cost has it come to them? And how are they planning on holding on to it? I mean the Ukrainians have made it perfectly obvious that they will not roll over and the current force in the area is well below what has been needed in recent times to hold a country in terms of troops per 1000 people.
In reply to NOHOME :
That feels like a calculated leak and dog whistle towards America.
Nick Comstock said:Mr_Asa said:volvoclearinghouse said:tuna55 said:pinchvalve (Forum Supporter) said:I grew up with Kiev as the capital of Ukrane, and it was pronounced -"Key-Ehv". Now I am seeing Kyiv and hearing "Keev". Apparently, both are correct.
From what I read, Russians call it key-ehv and Ukrainians call it keev.
Ah. So, if you pronounce it the first way, you're a secret Russian sympathizer. Got it.
Again, for hundreds of years, Russia has systematically tried to turn Ukraine into Russia. Including trying to erase their language.
I'm curious though, now that you know the difference which way are you going to pronounce it?
I'm the farthest thing you could possibly get from a Russian sympathizer but until two days ago I've only ever heard it pronounced key-ehv. I see no reason to change.
I've already changed the way I pronounce and spell Kyiv.
That's what I usually try to do when presented with facts I didn't know - update my understanding.
In reply to 02Pilot :
China is already censoring discussions about the Ukraine online and is adopting phrases about "backwardness" and such.
I could see China attempting to scoop up as much as possible in the face of Russia's financial woes and military slowdown, but there's a lot of caveats there and a point I could only make after linking several long videos. Russia still has that national Soviet identity, so having the Sino-sphere begin influencing them heavily when many still remember the Sino-Soviet split (when WW3 nearly started between Mao and Khrushchev) would probably make such actions unpalatable to them. Plus, China's got a lot of debt and is pouring more and more money into combating internal threats than external now; since they've made that pipeline across the Gobi to the middle east for petroleum it's a wonder if they'll even WANT to fork over the cash for more infrastructure from Siberia when they still have coal mines underwater right now as-is.
We will absolutely see some... adventurism from them however. They are ruthlessly pragmatic now.
In reply to Duke :
Yep, I was in Qutar in 2019 and I initially pronounced it phonetically to rhyme with guitar but once I got there I realized that it was actually pronounced "Cutter".
So, Cutter it is.
Historical template for the Ukrainian response to Russian demands:
NOHOME said:Supposedly Putin's propaganda victory article that got leaked by the author. Not sure what to make of this since it seems to have been composed for an audience with much a higher reading/comprehension level than I would expect from the general public.
An article by the propaganda publication RIA Novosti, which was to be published after the occupation of Ukraine, is preserved in the Web Archive. The Kremlin’s propaganda publication RIA-Novosti accidentally published an article that was to be published after the rapid occupation of Ukraine. It was quickly removed, but the Internet Archive web service managed to save it. https://mil.in.ua/en/news/brave-new-world-of-putin-an-article-by-the-propaganda-publication-ria-novosti-which-was-to-be-published-after-the-occupation-of-ukraine/
Geez... you could substitute "Germany" and "Austria" for "Russia" and "Ukraine", and it would sound like a prepared statement the Nazis might have released in 1938 about "Uniting all German speaking peoples".
84FSP said:NickD said:Mndsm said:Boost_Crazy said:Is it just me or does this feel a bit like an 80's B movie script? We've got a champion boxer turned mayor, an actor turned President, criminals, and the former Miss Ukraine fighting side by side to beat back the Russians. We even have lines appropriate for the movie. "I don't need a ride, I need more ammo." "Russian warship- go berkeley your self."
It's playing out like a cheap knockoff, but somehow better version of red dawn. Only Patrick swayze is already dead.
You also had everyone's favorite podcast host spreading tales of Steven Seagal fighting for the Russians. Not true, but shockingly not that far out of line. Seagal is friends with Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president, has Russian citizenship, and has a history of making really stupid decisions.
I can totally see Segal and Putin riding bear back across the Ukraine to save Mother Russia - one dome chrome - one chrome dome covered in a bad rug. A couple of gold plated AK's on their backs and terrorizing the opposing forces. Have to come up with a snarky movie title? "Vlad and the lad do Ukraine"?
Putin and Segal riding bear back is a more humorous image than bare back. I could define see both of those tough guys trying it.
edit: *definitely
No need for a map update today, it's pretty static. If you are paying attention to the news at all, the big news is the very large buildup northwest of Kiev. Obviously the Russians are setting up for a big push into Kiev. The Ukrainians seem to be doing a very good job so far of keeping them in the outskirts.
On a slightly more disturbing note, it looks like the Russians are trying to knock out communications in Kiev (attacking the TV tower), and likely why there have not been a lot of updates from there. If no on sees the crime, is it still a crime?
An interesting note about the drone attacks: One of the attacks that was shown, was on the forces accumulating outside Kiev, and it specifically targets the anti-aircraft tank in the column. I find this interesting because, clearly the AA tank could not see the drone, so it was no threat to it, so why target it? Perhaps there is something a bit more visible they want to get close to this buildup to make a special delivery?
Obviously, this would be an ideal time for an airstrike on the buildup. Clearly the S-400's are quite as dominant as they are supposed to be. Do they have something that can do that?
The Russians do not seem to be making any serious progress in the south or east, so it seems like Kiev is the critical point now, and the Russians seem to certainly be making it a priority. When will they be ready to attack? Who knows. Should be pretty soon though.
How will they attack? Are they going to just march in? Are they going to surround and siege? Will they just level the city with artillery? If they do significantly bombard the city, to the point of turning it into ruins (probably a later stage desperation move I would guess) they could very much end up with their very own Stalingrad, only this time, they are the NAZIs.
Hackers have overwhelmed and shut down the Belarusian rail network. Currently all track vehicles and tanks coming from Russian have to be taken on railways due to fuel logistics. Former Belarus railway worker, who runs a Telegram channel popular with railway workers in the country, reported that train systems in Minsk and Orsha had been “paralyzed.” In addition, on Belarusian internet forums, some people described disruption to trains in Minsk. Basically, they are just spamming the phone lines and fax lines with phone calls and crashing the system. There are also Belarusian protestors who are throwing black paint over the signal lights, putting derailers on the rails and either derailing trains or forcing crews to operate at greatly reduced speed to spot the derailers before they hit them, parking cars on the train tracks and there's rumor of at least one bridge being set on fire.
I, uhhh, have the phone numbers if anyone wants to make a few phone calls and send some love from the US.
In reply to NickD :
It would be amaing if that fat berkeleyer in Belarus fell. That would certainly mess up Putin's plans.
93EXCivic said:In reply to NickD :
It would be amaingly if that fat berkeleyer in Belarus fell. That would certainly mess up Putin's plans.
Just quoting so it's said and read over and over
I mean, they look like they should be starring in a goofy buddy roadtrip comedy, don't they?
wae said:
I mean, they look like they should be starring in a goofy buddy roadtrip comedy, don't they?
In a world where WWIII seems on the horizon, two men set their sights on the rest of the world... until :: record scratch sound ::
"Vlad, have you seen my pants!?"
"No Alex! Why aren't they by the bed?"
"Vlad, ALL of our clothes are gone!"
"We can't take over the world NAKED!"
Someone write the script
OHSCrifle said:84FSP said:NickD said:Mndsm said:Boost_Crazy said:Is it just me or does this feel a bit like an 80's B movie script? We've got a champion boxer turned mayor, an actor turned President, criminals, and the former Miss Ukraine fighting side by side to beat back the Russians. We even have lines appropriate for the movie. "I don't need a ride, I need more ammo." "Russian warship- go berkeley your self."
It's playing out like a cheap knockoff, but somehow better version of red dawn. Only Patrick swayze is already dead.
You also had everyone's favorite podcast host spreading tales of Steven Seagal fighting for the Russians. Not true, but shockingly not that far out of line. Seagal is friends with Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president, has Russian citizenship, and has a history of making really stupid decisions.
I can totally see Segal and Putin riding bear back across the Ukraine to save Mother Russia - one dome chrome - one chrome dome covered in a bad rug. A couple of gold plated AK's on their backs and terrorizing the opposing forces. Have to come up with a snarky movie title? "Vlad and the lad do Ukraine"?
Putin and Segal riding bear back is a more humorous image than bare back. I could define see both of those tough guys trying it.
Hey, if the Russians fielded Seagal, we'd be in trouble. Seagal can't lose or even get hit, it's in his contract. Dead serious, Seagal has it in his contract that he can't get hit or lose any of his fights in his movies. The only instance I know of him losing is in a E36 M3ty 2017 movie called China Salesman, where Mike Tyson whoops his ass. But if you pay attention, there are never any wide shots where you see Tyson and Seagal at the same time, and the director said that Seagal was such a baby about the whole thing that Mike Tyson and Steven Seagal were never actually even on set at the same time. It was Tyson fighting a double and Seagal fighting a double and they used angles to cover it up.
OHSCrifle said:Putin and Segal riding bear back is a more humorous image than bare back. I could define see both of those tough guys trying it.
Which the bear back or bare back?
wae said:
I mean, they look like they should be starring in a goofy buddy roadtrip comedy, don't they?
Intelligence so far reports the following:
- The 40 mile long convoy doesn't appear to be doing much. Some suspect that the more seasoned forces are coming from the south, and the conscripts in the north are there to aid in surrounding Kyiv, which Moscow believed would be easier.
- Ukrainian (Turkish) drones are being used to eliminate S2A threats, then being followed up with air strikes. It's quite possible that the 40 mile convoy will be completely annihilated before reinforcements join from the south. Continued reports of this convoy being a major source of abandonment by Russian forces.
- Russian forces are going to door to collecting cell phones, computers, any way of communicating. This is being reported from Northeast of Kyiv, and Southeast of Kyiv (close to Mariupol).
- Despite 400 some missile attacks, the Ukrainian missile defense system is still operational. Where that system is, and what exactly its protecting is obviously being kept secret.
- US intelligence isn't quite sure what's going on with Belarus. Equipment, missile strikes and air support is definitely moving across that border, but it doesn't appear much else. Is it possible Belarus is worried about swift intervention?
pheller said:Intelligence so far reports the following:
- The 40 mile long convoy doesn't appear to be doing much. Some suspect that the more seasoned forces are coming from the south, and the conscripts in the north are there to aid in surrounding Kyiv, which Moscow believed would be easier.
- Ukrainian (Turkish) drones are being used to eliminate S2A threats, then being followed up with air strikes. It's quite possible that the 40 mile convoy will be completely annihilated before reinforcements join from the south. Continued reports of this convoy being a major source of abandonment by Russian forces.
- Russian forces are going to door to collecting cell phones, computers, any way of communicating. This is being reported from Northeast of Kyiv, and Southeast of Kyiv (close to Mariupol).
- Despite 400 some missile attacks, the Ukrainian missile defense system is still operational. Where that system is, and what exactly its protecting is obviously being kept secret.
I love that they have such a ripe target as a huge line of Russian weaponry just sitting there stalled in a line. I hope they can take advantage of that, despite not having A10s. I think those Turkish drones are pretty mighty in that scenario.
In reply to NickD :
Best part of "Executive Decision" was when Segal died near the start. Made it a much more enjoyable movie.
In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :
Don't forget how the Sino-Soviet split started. Khrushchev began the process of de-Stalinization with his "secret speech" to the 20th Party Congress, rolling back many of Stalin's more doctrinaire and brutal reforms. Mao, ever the one to sense an opportunity - in this case in the developing world, where Marxist-Leninist radicalism was all the rage - called out Khrushchev for going soft on the imperialist capitalist running dogs and claimed himself and China the new home of The One True Communism. Khrushchev was caught between a rock and a hard place: he knew how badly Stalinism had damaged the Soviet Union but couldn't let on publicly, while up-and-coming revolutionaries in the Third World could only imagine the Glorious Workers' Paradise promised in Das Kapital, and thus found Mao's chest-thumping revolutionary fervor more appealing than Khrushchev's moderate second-stage reformism.
The point being, the Sino-Soviet split began with China exploiting Soviet weakness, exacerbating the difficult position the Soviets found themselves in after Stalin. The Russians have opened themselves up to a roughly similar set of circumstances, and the Chinese will in all likelihood take advantage - again.
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