My, My, My…My Corona

I work in a hospital in a town where we already have one "diagnosed" case.  I could have it already for all I know. 
 

<shrug>

With daily non-stops from DTW to PVG (Shanghai Pudong), I'm surprised we haven't been a hotspot right here in the Detroit metro area.

and yes, it's pronounced POOH-dong.

As part of my job I travel to hospitals all over the country.  We are currently under a travel restriction,  but recently I've already been to El Paso,  San Jose,  and Vegas.  So far no corona though.

I'm really not scared.   At 41 years young, I have a healthy immune system that I apply a daily alcohol treatment to kill virus/bacteria

I had to get tested for work. I do not have it. Guess rolling around under nasty cars at the junkyard (and my own yard) makes me less worse for wear. 

Daughter is keeping me appraised of the situation in Korea. They have a phone app that relates to the bug and drive-through testing, free of charge.

Sin-in law works for So-Car  ( car share company) and I have no idea how they are dealing with all this.

Meh. I ate a box of tagalongs for dinner. 

Don't know if it'll help keep away the coronavirus, but it was damn tasty!

(Seriously,  my immune system sucks,  i have compromised lungs, and im about as healthy as a deep fried twinkie. Im berkeleyed.)

Yeah, Michael, you would be in the "High Risk" category.  From what I've been reading from official sources, the actual death rate is probably well under 1%, however, the death rate in the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions is significantly higher.  Like possibly up to 14% for people in their 80's.

In reply to Dr. Hess :

1 I also do community-based mental health services. Primarily in economically depressed areas. Between that and my General Baseline health status I would say that I am the prime candidate and will be shocked if I don't catch it.

My allergies and a chest cold my son brought home from school have me congested and coughing up mucus but there's no nearby corona cases and I tested negative. I deliver parts and I'm pretty sure tomorrow atleast one person will think I have it 

My office is very near the Arlington Heights hospital where 4 of the Illinois cases have been quarantined. There's no reason to believe it's coming to our office, but everyone is on edge. Like, don't sneeze in the office.

HR told us to stop shaking hands, buy extra food and water, and bring our laptops home every night in case the office gets closed. I don't really know what the likelihood of that happening is. There is a doctor's office on a lower floor but I'm pretty sure it's an OB-GYN.

I saw a report last week suspecting fecal-oral transmission. 

Hoping I can upgrade my cruise stateroom for cheap...

In reply to Dr. Hess :

Gosh, I hope not.  Two weeks ago, Kid 3s girlfriend gave him a stomach bug. He in turn gave it to me. Kid 4 got a nasty cold and passed that to me which turned out to be a bad bronchitis. Kid 3 got sent home from work and had Flu A. Toyman joined our several days of feeling crappy but no official diagnosis. Kid 4 rounded it out with a days upset stomach.

NO MORE ILLNESS IN MY HOUSE.

Walked out of my local grocery store yesterday into a strong breeze when I felt a mist of moisture on my face.  

THE berkeleyING CHILD IN THE CART IN FRONT OF ME IS SPITTING STRAIGHT UP IN THE AIR!!!!

I just got 3 year old spit in my eyes!!  If I don't get something I'll be shocked.

 A salesman coworker who just returned from a conference hacked a suspicious dry cough right at me while speaking to him this morning. I almost lashed out. I held my breath, backed slowly away, and then coated all my exposed surfaces with rubbing alcohol. 

I mean, come on dude, we work for a disinfectant company. We ALL know the protocols. Cover yo damn mouf!

Not sick here!

I work for a South Korean company. We had a, if not scare, concern here at work last week.   Two weeks prior we had several people from South Korea over, one guy in the building spent the whole week with them, in meetings, in a car visiting customers etc.  They went back and are still symptom free (update, they were tested before and after travel and are confirmed free).  Two weeks later the guy here comes down with severe symptoms that match Covid-19.  I don't know the full chain of events, but contrary to the news reports he self quarantined and the CDC got him tested and the results back within one day.  He's clear.  That's awesome, he's just got really bad flue (watch that wipe out the office now!!)  Otherwise we would have all been sent home for two weeks to self quarantine and work from home. 

That could be fun as our Microsoft free VPN is seriously E36 M3.  It will stop working randomly for no apparent reason.  Occasionally for everyone, occasionally for one or two people.  No idea how it would cope with 75 people all trying to work at once.  Yes I know it shouldn't matter how many people are on once authentication has happened, but it's so iffy we have concerns. There are also different servers and one that carries a lot of the confidential company stuff is in Korea and it's painfully slow for no apparent reason at the best of times.  The IT here is a joke for a $4B company.

A funny aside, the company owners son was supposed to come to the GM supplier of the year presentation. You can't enter GM unless you sign that you haven't been to Korea in the last two weeks.  So he came to the US two weeks early........ He's was sitting it out in Hawaii.  LOL.  Even better, they completely canceled the meeting.  We are now all joking that anyone who visits any outside company must self quarantine in Hawaii for two weeks on the company dime before returning to work.

In reply to Adrian_Thompson :

Good story.  

New gig?  That was quick.  

In reply to John Welsh :

Longer than you think.  Was let go from Ford 3/31/19, got this job as of 7/22/19.  Having fun being back involved in Engineering again.  Hopefully there will be something I can point to in the public eye by the end of the year.

I have the sharona virus. It's when someone puts the "my sharona" song into your head and you can't shake it. 

In reply to DirtyBird222 :

I get that every time I see a Verona on the road.  Or am at the deli ordering balogna.

It's such a tasty snack, I always eat too much and throw up.

I just ran a prediction model on the 50/50 for when the first GRM’er reports that they’ve been diagnosed with Corona virus and I got April 20^th.

Admittedly, I’d have to set the 95% confidence interval at today and never as there are an inordinate number of estimates / assumptions that need to be made in the calculation.

You guys can help me with one of them…

How many people would let us know if they got sick?

I’m around number 306 on the leaderboard. We’ve got people that are less active then me that would still report in but we’ve also got people that were once highly active and are now gone.

I set our population size at 400. Does that sound about right or should I change it?

BTW, the U.S. growth rate has been pretty stable from February 16^th to today. The mean is 1.23 with a standard deviation of 0.34. This means that the number of new confirmed cases is increasing 23% per day (i.e. 10 today, 12.3 tomorrow, and 15.13 on the following day for example).

In reply to RX Reven' :

I've counted about 200 "regular" posters. People I see posting daily, multiple times per day. About another 100 I see every week, and maybe 150 that post only a few times a month. 

Rough estimate relying on my admittedly shaky memory, but 400-500 monthly users sounds pretty good.