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STM317
STM317 UberDork
2/8/22 6:06 a.m.
Advan046 said:

I don't see any value to a large electric NGDV fleet for the purposes of the USPS. For Amazon and others maybe they are good for marketing value. For actual use in other than fixed short routes they are more costly from a life cycle cost and environmental standpoint. 

Source? The "cradle to grave" studies that I've seen for passenger vehicles indicate EVs are on par with ICE's that get 40+mpg. The difference should be greater as fuel economy gets worse. And they're really only accounting for GHG's here, while mostly ignoring tailpipe emissions (which the EVs obviously don't have).

This infographic is a few years old now, but still has a ton of good details about how LLVs are typically used, and what switching to EVs might return (keeping in mind that $/kwh for batteries was in the $375 range when this was made and has now dropped to just over $100/kwh).

usps llv

z31maniac
z31maniac MegaDork
2/8/22 11:07 a.m.

I wonder if the numbers for EV look even better now, considering a lot of that info is 9+ years old. 

Advan046
Advan046 UltraDork
2/8/22 9:40 p.m.

In reply to STM317 :

I don't disagree with you statement in general that EVs are better overall. But the issues I tried to convey in the section you quoted was that the USPS is not being given the funding it needs to do an EV fleet properly. Secondly, based on my own agencies analysis of going EV. 

Pause, I support the idea of maximizing the EV fleet as it at least gets us headed towards a better energy infrastructure. So I am not anti EV. I just see everyone missing the point that the USPS is not getting funded to be cool like that. Heck I think the leadership in my agency have a hard time with the cost estimates.

Resume. Within my agency we have many uses that just can't go EV because a lot of our particular fleet must be able to tow equipment. We just haven't seen an EV truck/van that is capable of doing the distance with our loads without multiple hour stops along the way. At the facility closest to me they have 3 dually diesels, and maybe 15 heavy duty trucks all being fully used to haul equipment or good sized boats regularly, as in some groups have to delay work because we need more trucks. So we have maybe 40-50% of our fleet already excluded from EV transition, FOR NOW. So for the other half of the fleet, the internal real property investment to switch to an EV fleet has been repeatedly evaluated at my own agency. My agency has presented those costs to our Department and so far there isn't support in Congress and I suspect the public for that type of price tag, we will see with this administration. We assessed several scenarios including maximum offsite recharging, Public Private partnerships to have the local electrical utility build and manage it on our property, and maximum onsite recharging. They each have large costs and public domain/environmental/social challenges. For my agency the need for a government employee to go investigate an earthquake/flood/forest fire where there is no longer power is a real need so unlike the public that can just not go there as they know they can't charge their car some people in my agency have the specific job to go there and take fuel with them or are linked up with DOD assets to ensure they can refuel. We would need to replicate that continuation of government built upon petroleum access so that may mean rather awesome sized solar charged battery backup systems, wind power, or Diesel generators sized to not just sustain a building but charge all the cars. I don't think my local post office has enough real property to just cover it with solar panels and being in the city we won't be likely to just stand up a wind turbine. So the only choice is working with the utility to increase our power and that would only happen with paying the costs to ensure that all of the surrounding public don't see significant increases in their electrical bill because USPS demand is so high from 5pm until 9am. That is even if the local utility can even handle the variance.

So from an environmental standpoint we felt, back in 2014 for sure when I was involved, that going out to cover federal lands with emergency power generation systems would not just sail through NEPA review. The costs would be highly variable, it was not a nice clear cut number as your graphic shows at $40,000 per vehicle but some greater number than that. 

I have a feeling that if, lets say, the Niagara power generation grid blacked out again as it did in 2003, not everyone would be just fine with not getting any mail for the duration of the blackout because the post office can't charge any of their vehicles. But maybe we will have mini fission reactors for each USPS building by then. cheeky

Finally I wish the head of the USPS would just have a press conference and say. We at the USPS want to maximize our electric vehicle fleet which we project would be between $700,000,000 and $800,000,000 over 8 years. Lets go! Then in the magical dream world the public outcry would spur a special vote to give the USPS a solid $10,000,000,000 to lead the Federal government into an electric power based infrastructure. Then nobody would care about the NGDV anymore. 

STM317
STM317 UberDork
2/9/22 5:19 a.m.

In reply to Advan046 :

I get that EVs aren't the right tool for lots of jobs, and that not all agencies can justify converting to EVs. But it seems like they'd be really good for the things that LLVs seem to do, while also having societal benefits. The fact that other package delivery companies are flocking to EV vans from anybody that can make them seems to imply that the duty cycle isn't inappropriate for the tech, and there are (at least potentially) benefits outside of just marketing.

If it comes down to costs, then it's pretty easy for the USPS to just say that, and they'd look like the good guys for trying to maximize their budget and avoid wasting taxpayer dollars. Asking for larger budgets seems like a well beaten path for government agencies. As a taxpayer, I'd fully understand if they came out and said "Hey, this sounds great on the surface, but we need more money." or "The numbers don't really work out over a 30 year lifespan. Let me show you why..." But they're not being transparent or open about any of it and it's making them look bad when there are multiple ways that they could've actually looked good.

ProDarwin
ProDarwin MegaDork
2/9/22 9:03 a.m.

What I don't get is hybrids offer the ability to regen and huge efficiency gains in this type of work, and zero infrastructure changes needed.  Why isn't that option considered more?  It doesn't seem like pure ICE should be on the table at all.

STM317
STM317 UberDork
2/9/22 9:36 a.m.

In reply to ProDarwin :

Agreed. The most logical explanation to me is that it comes down to money. The requirements that I've read (from 2015 when this all started) say that the engine must be "alt fuel" (which includes hybrids, and full electrics but can also be just e85 flex fuel). The powertrain must have a conventional automatic trans, and the whole thing should have AWD/4WD as an option. They require RHD, aluminum or composite body, and pretty strict visibility requirements which eliminates any normal type of vehicle body. I have seen a couple of pieces claim that the target price was to be $35k/NGVD which isn't a ton to work with.

So, the cheapest way to meet the requirements is to rebody something that already fits most of the powertrain criteria. I don't think anybody currently offers any kind of hybrid that would be suitable for this kind of work while meeting the requirements. The NGDV has already been confirmed to have Ford powertrain components. Ford makes a flex fuel Transit that can be upgraded to AWD and is made in RHD configs overseas. It seems like the "Easy Button" for an off the shelf base platform.

Ford does offer the Transit Custom with a PHEV package in other markets that could be an interesting foundation. It has plenty of payload, and great efficiency, but I'm not seeing anything about AWD being an option, and all of Ford's similar hybrids use a special CVT instead of traditional auto trans. Ford also uses air cooled batteries in most of their hybrids which may increase long term cost of ownership.

The F150 hybrid might be interesting too, but they went more for power than fuel efficiency with it, a RHD conversion would be more difficult than the Transit options, and it's likely pretty expensive by comparison.

ProDarwin
ProDarwin MegaDork
2/9/22 9:45 a.m.

Ah, I didn't dive enough into the requirements.  Why is there a need for a "conventional automatic trans"?  That rules out the Prius-style system (often licensed by Ford) which we all know is brutally efficient and reliable.

 

 

STM317
STM317 UberDork
2/9/22 9:54 a.m.

In reply to ProDarwin :

I'm not sure if that requirement makes sense in 2022, but here's what it says from 2015:

ProDarwin
ProDarwin MegaDork
2/9/22 10:03 a.m.

A prius-style hybrid trans can meet that requirement I would argue.

pinchvalve (Forum Supporter)
pinchvalve (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
2/9/22 10:32 a.m.

I for one am upset that Dodge didn't get into the competition. They put their supercharged V8 into everything, why not a Ram Promaster? Come on America, this is why we are becoming a second-rate country...no 700hp mail trucks!!  

Advan046
Advan046 UltraDork
2/10/22 9:53 a.m.
ProDarwin said:

A prius-style hybrid trans can meet that requirement I would argue.

Yup, the bidder would just have to show that the functional aspects requested in their RFP/B can meet the specification. So if the Prius style transmission has an automatically engaging physical PAWL like feature, heaviest duty cooling, and requires no manual shifting to engage any feature. It would probably meet the contract.

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH MegaDork
2/23/22 2:45 p.m.

Looks like they're going ahead with the original plan of running a 90% ICE-only fleet of these turdmobiles:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/23/politics/postal-service-vehicles/index.html

An ICE-only variant really shouldn't have been on the table for a delivery vehicle in this era.

Advan046
Advan046 UltraDork
2/23/22 7:01 p.m.
GameboyRMH said:

Looks like they're going ahead with the original plan of running a 90% ICE-only fleet of these turdmobiles:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/23/politics/postal-service-vehicles/index.html

An ICE-only variant really shouldn't have been on the table for a delivery vehicle in this era.

How many NON-ICE delivery vehicles are actually on the road today in the USA? I keep running into marketing speak by Amazon/FEDEX/UPS with no actual batteries on the ground numbers just conceptual business plans stating they will have 100,000 electric vans from BlahBlahBlah. Interestingly Amazon's whole total global fleet is probably below 100,000 delivery vans so are they really adding that volume anytime soon? Having worked in the auto industry I recall many announced fleet sales that disappeared by year 2 or never even started.

ICE is still the only way I see the USPS can acquire new vehicles for use over the next decade OR until they get an earmark bill (perish the thought!) to fund their more environmental expansion. 

dps214
dps214 Dork
2/23/22 7:44 p.m.

In reply to Advan046 :

Seems like this is unfortunate timing for this changeover. Five years ago sticking with ICE would have seemed totally reasonable; five years from now switching to EVs would be probably be a no-brainer. But right now we're at a point where ICE is clearly on its way out and committing to it seems short sighted, but on the other hand EVs haven't really been proven out in the full scale nationwide fleet setting yet so going all in on that carries a bunch of risk. So neither direction really makes a ton of sense at this moment in time.

ProDarwin
ProDarwin MegaDork
2/23/22 8:09 p.m.
Advan046 said:
GameboyRMH said:

Looks like they're going ahead with the original plan of running a 90% ICE-only fleet of these turdmobiles:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/23/politics/postal-service-vehicles/index.html

An ICE-only variant really shouldn't have been on the table for a delivery vehicle in this era.

How many NON-ICE delivery vehicles are actually on the road today in the USA? I keep running into marketing speak by Amazon/FEDEX/UPS with no actual batteries on the ground numbers just conceptual business plans stating they will have 100,000 electric vans from BlahBlahBlah. Interestingly Amazon's whole total global fleet is probably below 100,000 delivery vans so are they really adding that volume anytime soon? Having worked in the auto industry I recall many announced fleet sales that disappeared by year 2 or never even started.

ICE is still the only way I see the USPS can acquire new vehicles for use over the next decade OR until they get an earmark bill (perish the thought!) to fund their more environmental expansion. 

There is a still a lot of room for improvement between ICE-only and NON-ICE.

There are a fair amount of hybrid commercial/industrial vehicles out there, but I'm not sure how many are used for deliveries.  I know I have seen Hybrid UPS trucks.  At this point I think almost every city bus I see is hybrid.

STM317
STM317 UberDork
2/24/22 7:53 a.m.

Even if all ICE had to be the route taken (I'm not convinced that a hybrid wouldn't work), using an alternative fuel like Natural Gas or propane would still be an improvement over gasoline from an emissions standpoint. Tons of fleets have been choosing those cleaner fuels for decades now.

 

 

volvoclearinghouse
volvoclearinghouse PowerDork
2/24/22 8:05 a.m.

Agreed here that hybrid was the way to go with these. 20 years ago UPS was working on hybrid delivery trucks; for the type of duty these things see it makes terrific sense. Not to mention the reduced costs from not having to do as many brake jobs on these things. 

Transit buses and Cadillac escalade a have hybrid power trains...I'm sure that could be adapted here. And I know a favorable life cycle cost analysis could be made. 

Major fail. 

Advan046
Advan046 UberDork
9/12/24 1:43 p.m.

Update! Finally saw one driving around couldn't take a photo but they are way bigger than I thought!

MadScientistMatt
MadScientistMatt UltimaDork
9/12/24 2:54 p.m.

The local postal fleet where I live seems to have been swapped for Mercedes Metris vans. 

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