Tesla Truck or not all disruption is good.

In reply to SVreX : I said new not high tech.  Muscles and work ethic can provide a decent middle class income with training on the job or not a lot of training.  

I don’t know the future but I suspect it will be wildly different than today. Just as my grandparents went from horses to cars, trains to planes, death at 50 to life to 90 etc  they got telegraphs and radios then TVs video recorders  cable TV movies on demand, satellites  now the internet

There aren’t a bunch of unemployed telegraph workers sitting around wIting for  job in an industry that doesn’t exist anymore.  

Sure it’s scary, the unknown  always is unless you look at it as a fresh opportunity.  

In reply to iadr :I believe your whole spin on things is wrong.  America became a great power because of immagrents seeing opportunities we didn’t know existed.  

Germany is now considered the worlds leader because they’ve found the value of people.  

Sure there is a backlash,  there always is a few who cannot see wealth when it’s right in front of themselves.  

The woman in China who looked at our( AMERICA’s ) waste and saw riches is now extremely wealthy, one of the richest in China.  

People are an assest,  form of wealth. Would you really throw money away because it’s wrinkled and dirty? 

In reply to akamcfly : Or maybe Tesla uses its power to buy GM’s ability to produce ( or visa versa)  remember at one point this year the market felt the value of Tesla was greater than the Value of GM.  

The future will trump the past, it always has!  

In reply to frenchyd :

I appreciate your optimism.  Your argument, however, sounds a little like Nero fiddling while Rome burned.

The biggest economic hurricane in history is barreling down on us.  Your suggestion is, "Don't worry about it.  The future always works itself out".  My suggestion is that it would be wise to prepare for the storm.

Don't hear me wrong- I don't consider it scary, and I do think there will be tremendous opportunity.  But the opportunity will present itself to the people who prepare for it and invest in what it is going to take to succeed.  It will not present itself freely to everyone who sits around on their butt waiting for the wonderful successful future to arrive.

I am much less afraid of the changes coming than I am of the attitude of complacency being adopted by so many (which you appear to be advocating).

There WILL be huge opportunity- for SOME individuals.  The masses may not reap the same opportunities or successes.

The beauty of the Industrial Age was that the great industrialists made their fortunes by putting vast quantities of people to work earning good wages.  The coming Automated Age isn't promising the same thing- it is promising the reverse.  Massive reductions in the workforce.

I plan on taking advantage of it as long as possible and investing in ideas that will embrace the changes.  But I think it is short-lived.  Even if my family and I are well positioned for the first few waves of change, I expect that to change within my children's lifetimes.  Eventually, the only players that can play the automated tech game at a very large scale will be very large companies with the resources to continue to play.

In the short term, the opportunities will be for small companies to innovate and exercise creativity in the new economy.  But good ideas (and good small companies) will be bought by bigger companies, who will eventually dominate.  

That's why Tesla will succeed.  They will innovate and create, until someone bigger runs over them, then they will move on to the next venture.  Elon Musk doesn't have to succeed at building cars if his ultimate goal is to colonize Mars (it is).  All he has to do is develop the technology and wait to be bought out at a ridiculous price, then use the money to fund what the really cares about.

In reply to SVreX : Well said! While I might argue a few details the basic premise is absolutely on the money. 

In todays society those who master technology will earn far better than those who cling to previous ways of life. 

With the globe nearing 8 billion people anyone who can provide a desired product or service will be a major success ( example Bill Gates)   While the rest of us will plod along 

Are we just assuming that somebody is going to come up with new battery tech that doesn't require raw materials in relatively short supply? Lithium and cobalt are the primary elements used in current batteries. There's a very finite amount of each. In fact, all of the cobalt that we know about on the planet pretty much comes from just one place right now (the Republic of Congo, or whatever it's known as these days).

The demand for batteries increases daily. Phones, computers, hybrid vehicles, EVs, lawn mowers, etc. All of these companies need these limited resources, which means prices will climb as supply dwindles. Those price increases will be passed to consumers. If no major shift in battery tech occurs, then stuff like this may not be as widespread as some think simply because it could be priced out of the game.

Also, while automation may be a threat to some people's jobs, I find it interesting that Tesla chose to include not one but two seats in their truck. 

The one thing about the coming future nobody seems to pay much attention to, even here. 3D printers. To take Roddenberry's Star Trek, it is a beautiful example of a semi-utopian future where people work at what they want to do. Why? It seems simple when you step back, who needs to make ANYTHING when you go to a device in your home and have it instantly made? At what point do our crude 3D printers morph into Star Trek's Replicators? Certainly that will put a  LOT of people out of work globally. Hopefully by then we will have stopped breeding like rabbits and figured out how to get along with our neighbors, but somehow I get the feeling that is not going to happen.

Going back to the short comings of the Tesla Trucks. At what point does somebody produce a "tesla trailer" to go with it that has a range extending batter built into it and solar recharging on the roof? Add that to a more aerodynamic shape and you have a fine recipe for OTR trucking via electricity. Honestly though, where things like the Tesla Truck are going to effect will be short haul. Back when I drove for a living, 90% of my loads were local in a 50 mile radius from home. the 35 gallon fuel tank in my little GMC W7 would last a couple of days at 11 mpg. My very occasional long distance runs to places like DC and Boston would easily be handled by the Tesla's 500 mile range and 400 mile extension after a half hour break. I never drove there and back anyway, it was always drive there, do a gig, and come back a day or two later.

mad_machine said:

At what point does somebody produce a "tesla trailer" to go with it that has a range extending batter built into it and solar recharging on the roof? Add that to a more aerodynamic shape and you have a fine recipe for OTR trucking via electricity.

Extra batteries add weight, and the more weight that is dedicated to moving the truck, the less weight can be hauled. That affects the bottom line for trucking companies, and the bottom line is the top priority for them. We don't know how the weight of this Tesla battery/power train compares to a common ICE power train/fuel tanks right now, but that number will play a huge role in how this truck is adopted. 

In reply to STM317 :

A diesel engine, transmission, differentials ect that are being removed are also very heavy, and the batteries can be placed low in the chassis improving the truck's stability.  I haven't had a chance to read much yet so I have lots of questions but this could be an interesting step forward. 

Wally does make a good point. the Big Truck engines are HUGE and very heavy. Add in the very heavy transmission and the diff and you are probably close to the weight of the battery pack. This also allows parts of the truck to be lighter as the weight is down low and there is no torque load through the frame if the motors are in the hubs or near them. If you have ever seen a big semi at full power trying to accelerate, they twist a lot from all the torque

In reply to Wally :

Absolutely. That's why I referred to them as power trains, and not just engines. But Tesla (unsurprisingly) hasn't provided any weight data, or even any claims that their system is lighter than a current ICE system. TeslA is very good at marketing, and they rarely miss an opportunity to talk about an advantage of their products, so the fact that they didn't mention weight once leaves me a bit skeptical. They talked a lot about acceleration vs ICE trucks though (which nobody within the industry is overly concerned with) because that grabs headlines and keeps the Hype train rolling. Batteries, multiple motors, and presumably a bunch of cooling for it all will add the weight up. Nobody can fully do the math to see if these will make financial sense without knowing the weight of the stuff that moves it down the road, or the upfront cost.

and with the fact that batteries and motors keep getting lighter, what is specced today, might either be a lot lighter in 2020 or more powerful. At this point all you can do is guestimate

In reply to mad_machine : 

That's a possibility. It's also a possibility that Tesla's numbers are more like targets that they hope to achieve by the time production rolls around, rather than what the truck is currently capable of. They've used similar approaches with previous product announcements.

Its also worth mentioning that ICE power trains are getting lighter and more efficient all the time too, just like their electric counterparts. The idea of "lightweight ing" through design is fully underway. The emissions equipment in a 2017 semi can be 40% lighter than the emissions equipment in a 2016 semi, and it meets tighter restrictions. Materials are becoming far more important than before. Engine blocks are know "sculpted" so that only the critical material is there. Brackets that were once cast iron are now aluminum, or they don't exist at all thanks to improved design. Things like oil pans and valve covers that had been stamped steel are being replaced by lighter plastic. Transmissions and axles are going through similar shifts in design and production, and they're all being developed together to work more efficiently as one cohesive unit, rather than separate components assembled by chance. Don't assume that the ICE truck power train of today will be the same by the time this Tesla gets going.

I have a lot of questions about Tesla’s claims, but their cars have come close to meeting most of the things Musk said they would.  Putting the drive motors in the wheels and using them for braking cuts out a lot of weight and eliminates a good chunk of maintenance and breakdowns.  I’m curious to see how much of it he can deliver on.  Getting Wal-Mart and JB Hunt to test them will see how well they work in the real world.  They test lots of new tech and crap generally gets weeded out fairly quick.

volvoclearinghouse said:

So, the most common job in the majority of US states is simply moving E36 M3 from one place to another?  That seems...inefficient.  

A large percentage of the economy is just moving E36 M3 from one place to another, or selling E36 M3 to someone else.

Keith Tanner said:

Remember, the automated vehicles only have be safer than humans to be a net benefit. And when you find a weird edge case, every truck will get updated with the new scenarios so the learning curve will be dramatic. Automated trucks make a lot of sense for long hauls, as a limited access highway is a much easier environment than a city. Give them a dedicated lane to go into convoy mode and they'll be safer, more efficient and faster than today. You can still use people to take care of the last mile if that makes you worried.

We have those already, they're called "trains".

mad_machine said:

Wally does make a good point. the Big Truck engines are HUGE and very heavy. Add in the very heavy transmission and the diff and you are probably close to the weight of the battery pack. This also allows parts of the truck to be lighter as the weight is down low and there is no torque load through the frame if the motors are in the hubs or near them. If you have ever seen a big semi at full power trying to accelerate, they twist a lot from all the torque

Cummins estimates almost 19,000lbs of battery would be needed for a 600 mile range. The Tesla won't need quite that much since it has a shorter range, but we're still probably talking about a minimum of 13-15,000lbs of hardware to move the truck. It's not clear if that estimate includes motors and cooling or not, but if it's batteries alone then the weight is going to be massive. Plus a frame sturdy enough to carry that weight a million miles while handling the instant torque of those big electric motors.

For reference, a modern, diesel truck with sleeper cab typically weighs 17,000 - 21,000 lbs rolling down the road. If that Cummins estimate is close, and it does not include things like motors and cooling equipment, the battery alone for this Tesla could weigh nearly as much as a complete, rolling diesel truck.

Whoever was talking about the in flight refueling was only partly right. If you automate something with a big enough battery to drive itself up to the truck, charge it, and drive home why wouldn't you just have that push/pull the truck instead? The 500 mile range in the Tesla will be plenty, and will probably continue to need drivers if they build a semi that hauls it's own giant battery and does the pushing or pulling of multiple rigs trained together while on the major corridors.

Charge your Tesla, drive to the interstate or rail depot, get towed to near your destination, get off the interstate or rail, and deliver your goods.

With the work hour requirements creeping in on truckers anyway we're one good automated load transfer system away from just having truckers going to/from depots and automating the entire otr system.

From what I've read so far the tech is impressive and could go a long way towards helping the shortage of competent OTR drivers.  Most young people no find they don't care for the fairly solitary life of a trucker once they find out it's much less adventure and romance than they thought and more waiting behind a toilet paper factory for a load.  once they fulfill whatever obligation they have with their carrier they tend to move on to greener pastures.  This leaves the guys who truly love what their doing and the wheelholders that have no where else to go.  The first group can find a home with specialized loads that don't lend themselves to easy automation while the second can be well suited to babysitting a self driver.  The Teslas are said to be Platooning ready which allows one truck to wirelessly control two others.  This allows them to save fuel since they run close together essentially drafting since the first truck applies the brakes on all three and eliminates the need to have drivers in the second two since they will always be attended by the first operator.  The drivers that would be lost by the tedious hours away from home could be retained and used locally to shunt trailers to and from staging areas in the highway and used in the first/last mile pick up and deliveries since autonomous tech is still far too cautious to be practical in an urban setting.   

As for Tesla's Electric drive tech I'm very curious but everything I read has been light on answers as far as actual performance.  Electric drive works very well, we've been running hybrid buses for about 15 years now, but every straight electric we tested has been troublesome on the battery side.  I can't imagine what it would cost to provide the kind of range he claims when we can't run a lighter slower vehicle with lots of regen nearly as long.  

In reply to Wally : I can imagine what the world was like when the Wright bros first started with their airplanes. In fact what about Henry Ford and that horseless carriage thing!  Gasoline?  Can’t be much of that stuff around!  

In reply to frenchyd :

Interesting points all around. The only thing I have to add is there are over 3 million open jobs in skilled trades that can’t be outsourced or automated. As truckers are presented with the prospect of becoming liabilities instead of assets, I hope they will seek the 1-2 years of training to enter other, rewarding, necessary careers.  Hardworking, adaptive individuals will always have paying work.

That said, John Ratzenberger needs to be the voice of all automated trucks.

In reply to Crxpilot :

If ever an industry was automated it’s the airline industry.  Take-off, flight, and landing is done by the computer.  The pilot enters the destination and taxi’s out to the runway( all tasks within the scope of computers)  but there is a pilot and co-pilot in every commercial airplane.  Decades after they are redundant.  

Same with trains and ships.  

Why would the trucking, busing, industry be any different?  

STM317 said:

. Plus a frame sturdy enough to carry that weight a million miles while handling the instant torque of those big electric motors.

 

I don't see the frame needing to take all that torque. With the motors in the hubs, all the torque is kept to the axle area, whereas a diesel rig has torque running all the way down the from frame from bumper to bumper. Also, electric motors in the hubs do not need transmissions, thus the need to floor it, shift a thousand RPMs later, floor it, shift, floor it, shift, etcetcetc all through the ten speed transmission and two speed differential are gone. Electric motors may have a lot of torque, but you can apply power smoothly (or the computer can do it for you) and simply "steam" away in a dignified manner. This is also probably the secret to Tesla's claim of a 20 second sprint to 60, no need to shift all the way up to that speed, just give it throttle and go.

The secret is electric motors make maximum torque at zero RPM.