Thinking about Canceling my Tesla reservation

Back when it was announced, I plunked down a reservation deposit on a Tesla Model 3. I was excited about the possibilities but lately I'm rethinking my decision. Worries are:

Poor reliability record for Tesla and poor availability of parts. Scaling up is going to be difficult to say the least and I dread having it serviced because ...

My state hates Tesla. Michigan doesn't allow their showrooms OR their service facilities. Closest body shop and mechanic is like 200+ miles away.

Also I don't think the recent election is going to be kind to Tesla. The mpg requirements will likely be softened, the tax breaks are going to go away, and I think their solar business model will be troublesome. I'm genuinely worried they will go under within the next 5-10 years, leaving me with an expensive but attractive brick.

If I want a longer range EV, I might buy the new Chevy while the tax breaks are still good. Or maybe the Pacifica Hybrid. I just think I'm too risk-averse to hold out for the Model 3.

Tesla wants to do all the production work himself. He is sleeping in a conference room next to the production line willing them to produce more cars. I don't have a ton of faith in them ramping up and doing it at quality. Niche car maker, ok maybe. Mass market, no thanks.

I would buy electric just for the jammy parking spots here in BC. You get free plug ins everywhere and right beside the main entrance, unlike those disabled folk who have to wheel fifty feet.

Regardless of any political speculation I can't see buying any new transportation type car without a nearby factory authorized service center. Unless they're going to literally pay you to take a day off whenever it needs warranty or recall work done.

In reply to BrokenYugo:

In all honesty that's the thing that makes me most concerned. I see a couple Model S owners here but haven't spoken with them about their experience. I doubt the first model 3s off the line will be especially reliable even given ideal circumstances.

I'd wait a little while to see just what the new election brings. There might be another surprise in store that could be not so bad for Tesla.

I had not heard that Michigan has no Tesla dealer. Seems like someone could make a killing opening a Tesla dealership in the Toledo area like the very fist exit off US23 just 37 miles due south of Ann Arbor.

bearmtnmartin wrote: I would buy electric just for the jammy parking spots here in BC. You get free plug ins everywhere and right beside the main entrance, unlike those disabled folk who have to wheel fifty feet.

Just plug in your block heater and go in the store.

Wife unit and I were at a shop yesterday which had 4 electric vehicle charging spots. Judging by the debris and garbage strewn about in them, they have not been used in quite a while.

Is there a compelling reason to yank your reservation now rather than sit on it and see how things pan out?

The Bolt does really seem great, I love Teslas, but if I wanted an EV and wasn't looking for luxury I'd stop by a Chevy dealership and enjoy that they beat Honda to the punch in making an EV Fit in production numbers greater then a few thousand a year.

Wonder if you could sell your reservation to someone else?

I'd like to have the money back. No reason to keep it in Tesla for another year or two if my mind is made up.

Can't sell it AFAIK. Non-transferable.

I do already have a Leaf.

How the berk can a state not allow a service facility?

JohnRW1621 wrote: I had not heard that Michigan has no Tesla dealer. Seems like someone could make a killing opening a Tesla dealership in the Toledo area like the very fist exit off US23 just 37 miles due south of Ann Arbor.

Tesla owns all their dealerships and Ohio has thrown a wrench into them opening any more I believe. The car dealer lobby hates Tesla.

At the risk of floundering this thread: it's amazing how the small government people forget their principles when a campaign donor is calling.

Tesla is close to where I live. I have had interesting interactions with the people who work there since before the roadster hit the market. Their drive trains are pretty good. It is all the other things that make up a car that I have doubts about.

Tesla hired a bunch experienced people in the Detroit area and set up a Michigan office to do the R&D on the on non-drive-train work. When Elon Musk thought the work was sufficiently complete, he fired them all and closed the office. He was offered a fair bit in incentives by the state of Michigan to stay. I am not surprised by official hostility to Tesla.

Since then Tesla has been hiring many new college grads who are young, smart, and happy to drink Musk Kool-aid. The Model X was the first product the wiz kids. From what I read, it sounds like a lot of rookie mistakes may have been made.

I know you can cancel the reservation up to delivery date and get a full refund. I thought they were also transferable. (I almost got a reservation too)

I agree with most of your concerns.

Having said that, I also think there will remain a great deal more interest in this car than the production numbers will ever be able to meet. Seems to me the resale potential in a quick flip should easily offer a healthy profit on your $1K investment.

How early did you get your reservation in? They will be delivering from West coast to East, on a first come first serve basis. (I'm not sure what that means if you were very early, and on the East coast) My bet says the early reservations are likely to get filled, and the late ones are riskier. If you are in the first 100K, I think your odds are pretty good.

Tesla's recent aquisition of Grohmann Engineering should step up their game regarding production. Looks likely that delivery will begin in early 2018, so you are now close to a year (assuming you got your reservation in early).

I bailed because I was going to be near 400K, and too close to the East coast. If I had an early reservation, I'd roll the dice and hang with it.

Musk dreams ridiculously huge. However, betting against him has not been profitable for very many people.

In reply to bastomatic:

you've got a PM

GameboyRMH wrote: I'd wait a little while to see just what the new election brings. There might be another surprise in store that could be not so bad for Tesla.

Update: Recent developments tell me there will be no surprise in store. Things will be bad for Tesla.

In reply to GameboyRMH:

I agree, this will probably mean a loss of incentives for Tesla.

Selling cars is not Elon Musk's ultimate goal. I'd still bet on him.

A friend of mine is an automotive journalist who specialized in electric vehicles. He's had a bunch of them and knows WAY too much about all the options on the market. He just put down his deposit on a loaded Bolt and is borderline giddy.

What I don't get is that Telsa represents the newest and hippest of American manufacturing, Powerwall and Solar Roofs allow people to get off grid (which lots of limited government types enjoy) and SpaceX is wowing the rest of the world with how awesome America is.

Those all seem like things that Trump should support, not plot against.

Unfortunately, Telsa and Musk are seen as overly educated science elite, and since they aren't providing jobs in Coal Country, they aren't popular with many in blue collar America.

If I was Musk, I'd be figuring out how to bring a Tesla Factory to Rural West Virginia, pronto.

In reply to pheller:

I agree.

"Newest and hippest" should not be in the same sentence as "manufacturing". I think the bottom line for analysts is that Musk has not yet proven his manufacturing prowess.

One of the beautiful things about American manufacturing that everyone seems to overlook is that it has historically been an enormous driver for good paying jobs for under-educated "unwashed masses". THAT'S it's importance to the economy.

The problem with Tesla (and other "hip" high tech companies) is that they threaten the opposite. They bring jobs for limited numbers of highly educated people, and large scale automation. This is NOT an economic driver for the the average American household (though it may be a driver for the GDP).

High tech companies look good on paper (regarding dollars and profit), but do not look good to people who don't have a great education and need a good paying job (majority of voters).

I like your idea of a Tesla plant in WV.

Also Tesla does benefit from various environmental incentive schemes as well as extremely stringent automotive emissions standards, and Trump's just put a global warming conspiracy theorist in the role of leading the EPA transition team, so those two structures are probably going to disappear.

I would not buy anything Elon is selling.

In reply to tuna55:

I would.