What does this say about the hobby...?

I must say, this is probably the best thread on the CM forum for a long, long time. It cuts to the heart of the status of our sport/hobby. I don't know if NOHOME intended it to be a defining topic, but that it is. This has gone beyond a simple rant about used parts and evolved into something much deeper. I believe the days of $30K TR3's and $15K MGB's are drawing to a close despite what the auction editors are saying. The geezers that want them are getting to old to pay those prices and younger enthusiasts just don't want them. Does that present a serious dilemma for the enthusiast publications?

Gary, I think it's inevitable. At one point, a Model A Ford was a common classic. Now demand hovers near zero.

40s Fords and Chevys. Other than the hotrodders, who are just as happy getting fiberglass repro tubs, nobody's lusting after them.

People are impressed by cars when they're kids. They live another 50-60 years. That's about how long classics are popular, too -- about 50-60 years. After that, they're museum pieces, not drivers, and museums don't need that many of them.

20 years ago, I was the youngest guy in my British car club by 20 years. For the cars of the 50s and 60s, it's becoming a very gray hobby.

And the stuff from the 50s and 60s is going to get a double-whammy. Not only is it naturally going to draw down, the drawdown will be much sharper, because demand has always been artificially inflated by the sheer size of the baby boomer generation.

Exactly! That's why this topic is so interesting, and important. Most CM readers are either already geezers or are approaching that status. I'll wager there aren't many 20 or 30 something year old subscribers. Let's keep this topic going because it affects where the hobby is going ... and the future of CM.

I found what looked to be a nice MGB in need of some parts this past weekend for 1400 bucks. This forum helped me decide that it needed a TON of work. I still like the idea b/c hey it's got a cool spirit to it and apparently I might fit unlike the miata...

What's interesting to note is my dad's 1983 911sc. He bought it in 1996 and joined the PCA at that time. For the first few years he was just another owner. Then around 2003 it started getting more attention at events. This past year he went to two events where his car was the oldest there... Also it was getting more attention than the 2014 turbo right in front of it. So the 1983 vehicle has finally reached that classic status.
Two years ago we went to 24 hour at RA. In the paddock only 3 more 911sc vehicles showed up. tons of boxsters but yeah...

As a guy in my 30's my interest in things automotive splits into a couple of distinct categories. I bench race and test drive the latest modern performance cars, I actively shop affordable modern performance & track cars, I daydream about vintage exotic cars and I would love to have an affordable classic car to tool around on the weekends.

I love driving a couple of Ferrari's and other modern exotic hardware, but don't see how I could ever afford to own one myself. Sports & race cars from the 50's and 60's fascinate me, but again, the vintage cars I lust after are priced well out of my reach. So I mostly just drive and shop decade-old performance cars -- but I would love to find an inexpensive but well looked-after Sprite or Triumph or Alfa to bomb around in.

Tim Baxter wrote: And the stuff from the 50s and 60s is going to get a double-whammy. Not only is it naturally going to draw down, the drawdown will be much sharper, because demand has always been artificially inflated by the sheer size of the baby boomer generation.

I think this is spot-on. I'm 44 and I'm not interested in anything older than the mid-60s, and even those cars are more of a curiosity for me than something I really aspire to own. My heart is in the 80s, and to a lesser extent, the 70s and 90s.

Tim Baxter wrote: And the stuff from the 50s and 60s is going to get a double-whammy. Not only is it naturally going to draw down, the drawdown will be much sharper, because demand has always been artificially inflated by the sheer size of the baby boomer generation.

I'm not entirely sure on that one. There was such a sharp line between the '60s cars and the malaise era cars that there seems to be a good deal of spillover into Generation X and later growing up drooling over '60s era muscle cars. I think this is going to result in a slower drawdown, since it won't just be boomers who want these cars.

I'm 36. My Dodge Dart and Chevy C10 are both older than I am.

In reply to MadScientistMatt:

Yeah but your a hardcore car guy if I'm not mistaken. It's not car guy's like you who drive the prices higher.

It's guys like my ex father-in-law, who decided to buy a 68 Mustang for what I think is an insane amount because he wanted one as a kid. Never owned any interesting cars in his life before that.

But, with his house paid, his girls out of the house, and a lot of disposable income, he doesn't care if he pays a couple of grands more for the car he wants. He even added a C5 to his stable when he realized that the Mustang drives like crap.

He won't sell his Mustang, because what he really is after are the nice memories it brings.

Gary wrote: Exactly! That's why this topic is so interesting, and important. Most CM readers are either already geezers or are approaching that status. I'll wager there aren't many 20 or 30 something year old subscribers. Let's keep this topic going because it affects where the hobby is going ... and the future of CM.

I am in that category but I imagine that I am in the 1%. People around my age who are interested in classic cars and have the means similar to me do not buy triumphs or TR3's or really anything like that. With the work that they require we buy more expensive cars that have a larger resale value or historical connotation. IE it costs me the same amount of maintenance and time to buy a 308 or a 330gt over a bugeye. I will get my money out when in 5 years or so I want something different. Yes the price differential is there on purchase and maintenance. But again most guys my age who are doing this have the resources.

I am the youngest over the average age in the local model A club by 40+ years. They know that I chop them up and build hot rods out of them but they still are welcoming because I like banger motors and can rebuild a friction shock which is a rare thing to see at 33.

Gary wrote: I believe the days of $30K TR3's and $15K MGB's are drawing to a close despite what the auction editors are saying. The geezers that want them are getting to old to pay those prices and younger enthusiasts just don't want them.

Yup us youngin's definitely don't want them so please be sure to spread the word that they're only worth $2,000 - tops. Oh and be sure to have any owners willing to accept this harsh reality drop me a line ASAP. I'll gladly take the worthless hunks of metal off of their hands.

In all seriousness though the other part of the problem are the number of total piles of E36 M3 out there that uneducated or delusional owners think "only need a little minor work". It blows my mind when I see cars with no floors and rockers on Craigslist and the seller has the audacity to state "don't bother me with lowball offers" - sorry your disassembled and rusted through Spridget is worth a few hundred tops and not $3,000 like you're asking.

It really is an interesting dilemma. What I've found kind of funny though are the number of young (under ~35) guys I've met either through vintage racing or just from buying/selling parts. Back in 2008/09 when the economy was in the crapper I also noticed quite a few younger guys with classics at the Pittsburgh Vintage Grand Prix. I'm guessing a lot of people who were either retired to close to retiring found their 401ks and other investments way down, panicked, and sold their toys (presumably cheap).

The interest is there but I think like the rest of the car hobby its a matter of finding the right captive audience. Plus a lot of the older stuff is quirky and strange and unless you like to tinker its probably more appealing and with less of a learning curve to get an early 90s Miata. At least you don't have to learn why the carbs need oil or why the hot cable of the battery is hooked to the chassis. When something does go wrong it shares more in common with modern stuff and NapAdvanceBoys carries parts for it.

Oh, by the way (uhh ... "BTW" to you youngin's out there) I'm an official geezer, and a geezer of means so to speak, but I'd never pay $30K for a TR3 or $15K for an MGB.

I was thinking a bit about this today. For years I drove old British and Italian cars, but now, not so much. I simply don't have the time for the maintenance anymore, and would rather drive than wrench. Not to say I don't like them, but my interests have shifted. I do however want another 240Z, and yes, I will pay a premium to buy a nice one.

Anyway, I followed a nice MGA today on the way to work, and sure enough, the guy driving appeared to be at least 70. It seems that most of the British stuff I see these days always have retirement age drivers. I'm not young at 51, but even when I was 30ish, there were plenty of us in Triumphs and Alfas, etc. I drove cars older than me without issue.

One of the reasons I believe is that cars now are sooooo different. Older cars are now "from a different era" where they were once older, cooler versions of what you could buy new. It's getting time for them to slide into "curiosity" category and out of the "cool classic" category I'm afraid.

As for parts, a few years ago I threw out a bunch of X1/9 parts because I couldn't even give them away. The same is true for a pile of '85 MR2 parts leftover from my race car build. I had a complete, extremely nice interior that I couldn't find a home for. I eventually had it hauled off since it was taking up a large amount of my garage space. It killed me to do it though.

Gary wrote: Exactly! That's why this topic is so interesting, and important. Most CM readers are either already geezers or are approaching that status. I'll wager there aren't many 20 or 30 something year old subscribers. Let's keep this topic going because it affects where the hobby is going ... and the future of CM.

Median age of CM readers is 56. FYI. It's 43 for GRM readers.

In reply to Keith Tanner:

Do you have the average age statistics? I'm curious, and I think it's a more usefull info than the median.

Those are the statistics that Motorsports Marketing puts in the media package. I do not have raw data.

I'm 63 and I'm actually one of the younger guys in our British car club. We do have a few younger members in their 30's or 40's, but not many.

I'm one of those younger guys you talk about at 39. :) I have a 1966 barracuda and I work a lot of the vintage races around the area. I have a great respect for the classics and love looking at and reading about them. I'm a CM subscriber because of that.

I'll be honest though, I wouldn't go buy a classic car and really had to think hard about refreshing the one I got for free.

When I look at the price and driving experience of a 246 Dino and compare it to my MR2 turbo...It's not really of interest to me. Now a 993 porsche.....we are now talking. I bought my MR2 based on nostalgia. It was the first car I ever went over 100 MPH in.

There is another problem here that isn't brought up too. There is a level of creature comforts that people have gotten use to. The idea of no AC in a car in Texas is not anything I'm interested in. So to drive it 4 seasons, I have to spend $1800. So to get a really good driver and GT car, you are going to typically have to add a bunch of stuff.

When I look at the cars I want to own....It's the 90s cars. I could see a 92 GSR integra parked next to an FD RX7 along with my MR2 restored and a 993 C2s...Now we are talking a dream garage :)

Tim Baxter wrote: Gary, I think it's inevitable. At one point, a Model A Ford was a common classic. Now demand hovers near zero. 40s Fords and Chevys. Other than the hotrodders, who are just as happy getting fiberglass repro tubs, nobody's lusting after them. People are impressed by cars when they're kids. They live another 50-60 years. That's about how long classics are popular, too -- about 50-60 years. After that, they're museum pieces, not drivers, and museums don't need that many of them. 20 years ago, I was the youngest guy in my British car club by 20 years. For the cars of the 50s and 60s, it's becoming a very gray hobby. And the stuff from the 50s and 60s is going to get a double-whammy. Not only is it naturally going to draw down, the drawdown will be much sharper, because demand has always been artificially inflated by the sheer size of the baby boomer generation.

While this appears to be the trend, the automobile hobby is still only about 100 years old and still evolving. Hobbyists do remember seeing the cars that interest them in daily use, but the value of those automobiles built and driven before they were born will develop a new type of collector with a deep appreciation for these truly remarkable earliest vehicles.

There was a provocative article in Hemmings that made the claim that "For every Investor that enters the classic car hobby, an enthusiast walks out the back door".

I just so happen to agree with this. So keeping this on topic, I am going to agree with something that has already been mentioned in this thread...Investment cars do not need parts since they tend to be restored cars that will never see the road and hence never wear out components.

I am a younger guy (32) who loves the older stuff, but is waiting on the so-called "cliff" of boomers either realizing they can't afford their toys or having to sell them off due to age. Unfortunately, I don't really see it happening on the 50s-70s cars. It may begin to happen at some point, but it seems like the more that reach retirement age, the less affordable these cars become. Been trying to find a nice C10 as a weekend toy for awhile and man should I have jumped on that a few years ago.

I will also say that there is an "unknown" aspect to those cars for us younger guys that makes some hesitant. When we get a check engine light we are used to being able to get a code and know what to fix (and it being available at the local parts store). That is slightly different than tuning a carb or upgrading from drums to discs.

CobraSpdRH wrote: I will also say that there is an "unknown" aspect to those cars for us younger guys that makes some hesitant. When we get a check engine light we are used to being able to get a code and know what to fix (and it being available at the local parts store). That is slightly different than tuning a carb or upgrading from drums to discs.

I love the irony of this statement! Us old guys are the exact opposite, when the "Check Wallet Light" in the dash comes on, we are both pissed off and lost as to where to apply a fix.

In out toolbox we have timing lights,feeler gauges, voltmeters and carb balancing tools. Code readers? Not so much!

I tend to agree with the over-all tone of this thread. What's been pointed out is largely true.

On a side spur, I've been looking around all over for a small car from the early 80's to build up into something more than it was intended for. Of course, I want it cheep, but even mid-price is impossible to find.

There is going to be a massive gap due to the "Clunker" legislation/initiative that was put in place earlier. I know that most will say,"Good riddance!" when discussing those cars from the late seventies to late eighties, but some of them would have made excellent bases for a nice build and they're all gone now. Find a Chevette or early Escort these days. A nice early Corolla or Honda. These were neat little bodies that would take a cool engine transplant right about now.

As I say, a side spur, but something that will come into play eventually.

In reply to TeamEvil:

Chevettes and early Escorts (hell... pretty much ALL Escorts...) were already on the "endangered species" list long before the "cash for clunkers" program was introduced. Never mind the fact none of those cars actually qualified for C4C as their MPG ratings are too high. C4C has been common scapegoat in these discussions, but the actual numbers (cars junked through the program compared to the normal yearly attrition) don't support this. It was a political ploy and little else, although in some ways it did work - a friend of mine junked his old Explorer for a new Volvo.

The overall "greying" of the hobby has been a topic of discussion for years. In many ways, this is one reason I like taking my Mini to car shows - kids invariably love it while they pretty much ignore everything else there. So I am quick to open the door and have them sit in it so their parents can take pictures. Gotta try to plant that seed as early as you can. Will it work? Who knows... but the smiles on their faces when they're sitting behind the wheel makes it worth trying. FWIW, they tend to like old Model A's and T's as well - because they look like "cartoon cars" with their wacky proportions and big headlights.

I am 35 and I think there will be a decline in demand for certain classic cars as the generational shift progresses. British car shows seem to skew especially old, and I think mass market cars like MG and Triumph will lose a lot of value. The higher end marques like Jaguar will always fair better because the brand still exists and carries a level of prestige that will prop up demand to some extent. I think even those prices will soften though. Exotics like Ferrari will probably remain somewhat disconnected from reality, at least for older models in limited supply. The values really do exceed what the cars are worth "as a car". I think newer models are riding on that perceived exclusivity, but this seems bubbly. I was recently seriously considering going on the hunt for a 308 until the prices jumped overnight and I lost interest.

I rambled on a bit there, but my point is I think tastes will shift and prices will not continue to rise for all classics, the price trends will probably look more like a bell curve for a typical model of car.

For me, I'd rather spend my money on a C4 Corvette ZR-1 than an MG TD. They are roughly the same money and I know which I would enjoy more. Don't get me wrong, I think the MG is neat and like looking at them and occasionally reading about them. They just do not represent a good value to me at current prices and I expect them to start falling. They may be already. I've seen a lot of T-series pop up on the local Craigslist over the last year and they don't seem to sell all that quickly. This is purely anecdotal, but I think many old sports cars are priced optimistically and never sell They just get stashed in the back of a shed when the owner can't get what he thinks it is worth... if anyone tries to sell them at all. The garages of America are absolutely stuffed with old cars.

I think the MG's and such are trapped in a bad convergence. A big aspect of their historic appeal is that of a small cheap sports car. But now, there is a car that was manufactured in large numbers, that is almost as small, more sporty, far more modern and is dropping into the same price range: The Miata.

Not a lot of reason for a youngin' to take interest in a (let's admit it, less then sophisticated very low HP) MG when you can get much more car for the same effort in a Miata.

Super nice (original or well restored) cars will likely always have some value, but those that don't make the cut will likely quickly start disappearing.

The Corvair scene is very old in general. One of the primary appeals to the car historically has been super cheap to purchase. Blow a motor? Just buy another car. That really is not the case anymore (the original cars are disappearing quickly). The Corvairs are only recently starting to make the transition from the "drive em" category, to the "sit and stare" category.

I do suspect that some of the older smaller cars (MG's having great potential for this as well as the Corvair with it's 4 wheel independent suspension) could potentially become very attractive targets for electric car conversions. Of course, once the motors / batteries become light enough and small enough, that could fade also.