Of all the big 3, Ford would be the only one I wouldn't be worried about.
Of all the big 3, Ford would be the only one I wouldn't be worried about.
frenchyd said:NOHOME said:In reply to llysgennad :
Because other than the trucks, I can't really tell you what Ford does that makes a profit. Truckismo is an image that Ford cultivates at least in NA. Ford seems to have successfully convinced the NA public that everybody NEEDS a truck where I personally think that the last thing most people need is a truck. This led me to the thought that if something came long that made if difficult for people to buy and operate a truck Ford of all companies would be in a vulnerable position.
Interesting side-note that comes out of this thread is the general feeling that the NA economy if firing strong on all cylinders and that there should be no headwinds to truck sales in general. Since perception tends to be reality, it is comforting to see.
Trucks and SUV's and Mustangs. Oh and police cars, state cars,
Most people don't need trucks? Haul boats, campers, used by tradesmen, like carpenters plumbers, electricians, moving stuff around. Like appliances, furniture, stuff on the farm, race cars, sled dog teams. Snow mobles . Camping, fishing, hunting, Ranching, real estate agents assistants, ( put up the for sale signs)
Most people aren't in the trades.
Most people don't have a boat and/or camper.
Most people don't own ranches or farms.
Most people don't own race cars.
I've never seen a real estate FOR SALE sign, that required the bed of a truck.
You don't need a truck to go camping. We took our 3 dogs and 6 person tent and everything we need for a 3 day weekend in a Mazda 3. For decades, Americans have confused "wants" with "needs."
How often do you move furniture or appliances? You can rent a truck for a day for that, or a UHaul. And if you're buying new, they will deliver it for free. Heck, you drive to Home Depot, get your stuff, load up one of their trucks, take it home, drop it off and then drive home in your vehicle.
There are use cases for them, no doubt. But like was mentioned earlier, trucks have become a status symbol the way a BMW/Merc/Audi used to be. And there is nothing wrong with how someone else spends their money. Personally, I just think it's silly to buy a big truck because you might need 6 times a year.
In reply to ShinnyGroove (Forum Supporter) :
I generally wouldnt disagree with someone saying the media is making something larger than it is, but this isnt just the cable news talking about economic trouble. The Fed has been talking about the need to raise rates since late last year and now they decided to actually do it. I think the best we can hope for is a mild "correction." Im not a financial advisor but Im not optimistic about the short term.
Opti said:In reply to ShinnyGroove (Forum Supporter) :
I generally wouldnt disagree with someone saying the media is making something larger than it is, but this isnt just the cable news talking about economic trouble. The Fed has been talking about the need to raise rates since late last year and now they decided to actually do it. I think the best we can hope for is a mild "correction." Im not a financial advisor but Im not optimistic about the short term.
Rising interest rates are inevitable and everyone already knows it. It has already been priced into institutional financial forecasts and models. There's no evidence at all that higher interest rates, within reason, will be harmful to either consumers or corporations. Meanwhile unemployment is dropping like a rock, real take-home income is on the rise for the first time in 40 years, and demand for products and services is at an all time high.
ShinnyGroove (Forum Supporter) said:... except for inflation of course- which is easily explained by the fact that we've had historically low interest rates and an oversupply of cash for nearly 20 years now. ...
Oh yeah- Ford is gonna be just fine.
You do realize that you just described 20 years of using a credit card to pay off a credit card right?
NOHOME said:ShinnyGroove (Forum Supporter) said:... except for inflation of course- which is easily explained by the fact that we've had historically low interest rates and an oversupply of cash for nearly 20 years now. ...
Oh yeah- Ford is gonna be just fine.
You do realize that you just described 20 years of using a credit card to pay off a credit card right?
Government finance is not same as personal finance, and that's not at all how things work with fiat currency.
In reply to ShinnyGroove (Forum Supporter) :
I agree they are inevitable because they have been too low for too long, but that doesnt mean that raising them doesnt hurt for a while until things normalize. More expensive debt absolutely hurts individuals and businesses. We still havent reached pre pandemic job levels, inflations at a 40 year high, real wage rates fell almost 2% last year and real disposable income has been trending downward for about the last year.
The whole point of raising the rates is to slow economic growth.
In reply to z31maniac :
I would hate to be in a Mazda 3 with 3 dogs. Especially for an extended period of time. Hell, as much as a good car my wife's Honda Accord is, I rather drive my Expedition. Especially, if my 2 boys are with me.
Anyway, I'd sure love a new truck though lol.
yupididit said:In reply to z31maniac :
I would hate to be in a Mazda 3 with 3 dogs. Especially for an extended period of time. Hell, as much as a good car my wife's Honda Accord is, I rather drive my Expedition. Especially, if my 2 boys are with me.
Anyway, I'd sure love a new truck though lol.
We don't have to drive 4 hours, there are at least a dozen campgrounds within an hour of our house. So 3 dogs in the back seat isn't really a big deal.
I'd love to buy a new Nissan Frontier crew cab Pro-4x (loved the 2011 I had), but it's hard to justify. It would be nice to take advantage of the equity in the Mazda 3. But if I were going to do that I'd like to see what kind of deal I could get if I buy a new Z and a new Frontier at the same time. 
Opti said:In reply to ShinnyGroove (Forum Supporter) :
The whole point of raising the rates is to slow economic growth.
The point of raising rates is to tighten the money supply. This only causes a recession if the reduced money supply leads to a drop in economic productivity- under current conditions there is no reason to believe this would be the case. There are trillions of dollars sitting on the sideline in banks and funds right now because there's not enough growth opportunity to deploy them, it's exactly the opposite problem you describe. This money would ordinarily be invested in growth through the fixed income market (bonds), but it's not moving because of the low low returns.
ShinnyGroove (Forum Supporter) said:NOHOME said:ShinnyGroove (Forum Supporter) said:... except for inflation of course- which is easily explained by the fact that we've had historically low interest rates and an oversupply of cash for nearly 20 years now. ...
Oh yeah- Ford is gonna be just fine.
You do realize that you just described 20 years of using a credit card to pay off a credit card right?
Government finance is not same as personal finance, and that's not at all how things work with fiat currency.
Historically ( since the revolutionary war) America has always paid off its debt with inflation.
Inflation is only really bad if you keep your cash in jars under the bed or your local bank.
Social security adjusts for inflation, retirement can offset fixed interest loans used to defeat inflation, Stocks typically reflect inflation driven growth. And assists owned inflate with inflation.
Yes some people who stick their head in the sand and lose. But that happens with anybody who fails to properly understand what is going on and how to deal with it.
z31maniac said:frenchyd said:NOHOME said:In reply to llysgennad :
Because other than the trucks, I can't really tell you what Ford does that makes a profit. Truckismo is an image that Ford cultivates at least in NA. Ford seems to have successfully convinced the NA public that everybody NEEDS a truck where I personally think that the last thing most people need is a truck. This led me to the thought that if something came long that made if difficult for people to buy and operate a truck Ford of all companies would be in a vulnerable position.
Interesting side-note that comes out of this thread is the general feeling that the NA economy if firing strong on all cylinders and that there should be no headwinds to truck sales in general. Since perception tends to be reality, it is comforting to see.
Trucks and SUV's and Mustangs. Oh and police cars, state cars,
Most people don't need trucks? Haul boats, campers, used by tradesmen, like carpenters plumbers, electricians, moving stuff around. Like appliances, furniture, stuff on the farm, race cars, sled dog teams. Snow mobles . Camping, fishing, hunting, Ranching, real estate agents assistants, ( put up the for sale signs)
Most people aren't in the trades.
Most people don't have a boat and/or camper.
Most people don't own ranches or farms.
Most people don't own race cars.
I've never seen a real estate FOR SALE sign, that required the bed of a truck.You don't need a truck to go camping. We took our 3 dogs and 6 person tent and everything we need for a 3 day weekend in a Mazda 3. For decades, Americans have confused "wants" with "needs."
How often do you move furniture or appliances? You can rent a truck for a day for that, or a UHaul. And if you're buying new, they will deliver it for free. Heck, you drive to Home Depot, get your stuff, load up one of their trucks, take it home, drop it off and then drive home in your vehicle.There are use cases for them, no doubt. But like was mentioned earlier, trucks have become a status symbol the way a BMW/Merc/Audi used to be. And there is nothing wrong with how someone else spends their money. Personally, I just think it's silly to buy a big truck because you might need 6 times a year.
It's clear you can't think out side your own life. I live in Minnesota, we Advertize 10,000 lakes but typical of Minnesota we actually have 15,000.
Every lake has many boats. Thousands and 10's of thousand boats probably more than a million. ( I own 2) we also have one of the Great Lakes. Plus 3 major rivers heading North, East, and South.
Wisconsin doesn't have as many lakes or major rivers. But it has two Great Lakes. Then there is Michigan etc etc.
Coastal states may not have as many Lakes but they do have oceans.
Then the Major rivers provide boating opportunities. Plus any lakes.
All of those boats need to be towed around somehow. What do you think? 50 million boats? More?
Yes you can contract it out. We do for one of our boats. It's $1500 a season in once and out once. The cruiser would be much more. But luckily I have a truck. I also used my truck to build my home. Haul my race car, landscape my yard.
All those people you said aren't contractors or tradesmen? Why don't you do the math and figure out how many there are.
Then add the farmers and hobbiest. Craftsmen and handymen. Ranchers hunters and campers using a pickup to haul their camper, tow the trailer, or carry their equipment. Yeh sure some use Suburbans and other SUV's which are just trucks with seats instead of a bed.
Oh and just how do you think they put up those big wooden for sale signs? Every real estate office has one guy who goes out, digs the hole saving the sod for replacement when the house is sold and the sign comes down.
We can agree that some people spend more than is necessary on their truck, but then some spend more than is necessary on their car, or boat or whatever.
No not everyone who owns a truck really needs a truck. But they do come in handy. Park one in your driveway for a while and see what family or friends you make who want to borrow yours.
Incidently. I don't see you defending your choice of owning a car. You can call Uber or Lyft to go rent the truck. Maybe if you're lucky you can go grocery shopping on the bus.
In reply to ShinnyGroove (Forum Supporter) :
You mentioned sidelined money, which we generally see an uptick of when economic outlook is poor, and we just broke the record for the amount of sidelined money, about 5 trillion (was under 4 during the 09 recession). Most of the sidelined money is held by corporations, corporations tend to hold cash when economic outlook is poor.
If this money wasnt invested in the bull market we had the last two years, its unlikly to come off the sidelines when the Fed raises rates and the market tumbles.
z31maniac said:yupididit said:In reply to z31maniac :
I would hate to be in a Mazda 3 with 3 dogs. Especially for an extended period of time. Hell, as much as a good car my wife's Honda Accord is, I rather drive my Expedition. Especially, if my 2 boys are with me.
Anyway, I'd sure love a new truck though lol.
We don't have to drive 4 hours, there are at least a dozen campgrounds within an hour of our house. So 3 dogs in the back seat isn't really a big deal.
I'd love to buy a new Nissan Frontier crew cab Pro-4x (loved the 2011 I had), but it's hard to justify. It would be nice to take advantage of the equity in the Mazda 3. But if I were going to do that I'd like to see what kind of deal I could get if I buy a new Z and a new Frontier at the same time.
Part of the reason to go camping is to see different parts of the country. Doing it with a big family and big dogs in a little car is my prescription for agony. "Mommy! Billy hit me , " "well you're in my space." Waaahhhh! I'm hungry" "Daddy I gotta go to the bathroom" "Ohh, the dog threw up". "Are we there yet" " What do you mean you forgot the opener"
Such joy!!
In reply to frenchyd :
I don't know why I even try.
https://b2b.discoverboating.com/toolkit/facts-and-figures.aspx
In reply to z31maniac :
In 2017 there were 12 million registered boats, out of the ~330 million people, I think youre accurate in saying most people dont have boats.
In reply to z31maniac :
You and the wife are DINK's right?
In reply to yupididit :
"You are correct sir!"
- Ed McMahon
In reply to Opti :
Yeah. Just like all the othr caveats in the post.
This thread has taken an amusing twist. Especially with the debate whether people need to buy a truck. They don't. Big deal- people are allowed to buy what they want. If they just bought what someone else thought they needed, we'd all be driving in Trabants.
If anything massive is going to come of all of what is going on, there will be a far more distributed supply chain. And that will be a big deal, especially here in the US where the chip makers had abandoned many years ago. I very much don't feel sorry for corporations who have suffered working with the Communist governments of China and Viet Nam when they left because of "regulations"- the reality is that they were chasing essentially free labor. It's no longer free, and the countries are even harder to work with. Sucks for the companies.
ShinnyGroove (Forum Supporter) said:NOHOME said:ShinnyGroove (Forum Supporter) said:... except for inflation of course- which is easily explained by the fact that we've had historically low interest rates and an oversupply of cash for nearly 20 years now. ...
Oh yeah- Ford is gonna be just fine.
You do realize that you just described 20 years of using a credit card to pay off a credit card right?
Government finance is not same as personal finance, and that's not at all how things work with fiat currency.
And yet, in the end it always does. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
frenchyd said:Etc. Shall I go on?
LOL
My sense is that Ford is fine and will continue to be so for the immediate future.
That said, since we are merrily drifting off topic, I have to say that I think it sucks that they've given up cars. I grew up in the malaise era, also known as "Boy, turns out the furriners make better cars than us" era. As a patriotic American that bugged me. I was embarrassed that the country I call home was making such E36 M3e. But then, slowly, steadily they upped their game. No the Focus, Fiesta, Volt, CTS-V, GTO et cetera weren't my cash-in-hand first choices, but they weren't cars that embarrassed me, or that I wouldn't want in my driveway. I was glad that they were out there.
Now I like trucks and SUVs as much as the next guy, but for a pure driving experience I still want a car. It's a damn shame that the Domestics have given up like they have.
In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :
Ironically, the Focus, Fiesta, CTS, and GTO were not really "American" cars, were they?
Opti said:In reply to z31maniac :
In 2017 there were 12 million registered boats, out of the ~330 million people, I think youre accurate in saying most people dont have boats.
Registered ?! How many unregistered? Wander through most boat yards and you'll see plenty of boats the registration has expired. Then go through the barns and storage sheds. Garages and boat houses. Now add museums and shops. Plus how many sitting out back someplace. Did anybody bother counting the US Navy's boats? ( and the reserve fleet) How about the coast Guard? Marine Corp?
But yes you are right. most people don't have boats and most people aren't in the trades or farmers, ranchers, or whatever else use trucks.
But add all those together and we're talking a whole lot of justification for a truck. Don't forget the suburban owners which are just trucks with seats instead of a bed. Same with SUV's which are selling very well. Just trucks with seats.
alfadriver said:This thread has taken an amusing twist. Especially with the debate whether people need to buy a truck. They don't. Big deal- people are allowed to buy what they want. If they just bought what someone else thought they needed, we'd all be driving in Trabants.
If anything massive is going to come of all of what is going on, there will be a far more distributed supply chain. And that will be a big deal, especially here in the US where the chip makers had abandoned many years ago. I very much don't feel sorry for corporations who have suffered working with the Communist governments of China and Viet Nam when they left because of "regulations"- the reality is that they were chasing essentially free labor. It's no longer free, and the countries are even harder to work with. Sucks for the companies.
Need to? Will you at least admit some people do need pickups. And the list of those that actually do need trucks is really pretty long and contains a very lot of people.
If you'll admit that I'll agree that some trucks are bought by people who really don't need a truck but just want one.
I'll also admit that some people shouldn't own a car too. Further that even some of us have too many cars.
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