drainoil
drainoil Reader
8/3/13 9:13 a.m.

Is there one single person who has a record of predicting future economic highs and lows? If not how about a group of people that seem to have a pulse on how things are, and where they will be a year or longer from now.

You have Porter Stansberry and his group for example, and others out there. Cutting through all the bs, who is the most accurate in predicting our economic future?

Slippery
Slippery HalfDork
8/3/13 9:29 a.m.

Bernie Madoff?

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH UltimaDork
8/3/13 9:31 a.m.

Any cyberpunk author.

carguy123
carguy123 UltimaDork
8/3/13 9:42 a.m.

What future?

The_Jed
The_Jed SuperDork
8/3/13 9:51 a.m.

Well, it's a well known fact, Sonny Jim, that there's a secret society of the five wealthiest people in the world, known as the Pentavirate, who run everything in the world, including the newspapers, and meet tri-annually at a secret country mansion in Colorado, known as The Meadows.

Basil Exposition
Basil Exposition HalfDork
8/3/13 10:20 a.m.

The way it works is that there will be an economist or a few that will correctly predict the future at any given time. It may or may not be the one(s) that were right in the past.

Your job is to pick the ones that will be right the next time.

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
8/3/13 10:57 a.m.

That's like asking if there is one biologist who understands exactly all of the intricacies of how life forms inter-relate, or one rocket scientist who can tell you the schematics for every rocket ever built...

...or one man who can tell you everything there is to know about all women!

Cutting through all the bs...no. There is not one single person who has a record of predicting future economic highs and lows.

The economic world does not live by unilateral anything. It lives by the subtleties of the interactions of countless inputs, including people's whims.

HappyAndy
HappyAndy SuperDork
8/3/13 12:26 p.m.
SVreX wrote: That's like asking if there is... ...or one man who can tell you everything there is to know about all women!

QFT!!!! I NOMINATE SXreX FOR A NOBEL PRIZE (in the much needed catagory) IN TRUTHFUL STATEMENTS!

DILYSI Dave
DILYSI Dave MegaDork
8/3/13 1:12 p.m.

And paradoxically, if he could, he'd still be wrong as the actions guided by that knowledge would set forth a different course.

aircooled
aircooled PowerDork
8/3/13 4:42 p.m.

You also have to ask yourself (and this true with a lot of things like this), if this someone really can predict these things, why in the heck would he tell you, he would just use his knowledge to make money for himself.

"Jack Hoff has made millions in the stock market, and now he wants to share his secrets with you...."

Oh... yeah, he just has SOOO much money now, he just can't stand to make more... hey wait, why is he charging for this then?....

In any "gold rush", the real money was not in mining the gold, it's in selling things to all the fools who think they cam strike it rich mining for gold.

fritzsch
fritzsch HalfDork
8/3/13 5:10 p.m.

The only thing certain is nothing is certain.

Beer Baron
Beer Baron UltimaDork
8/3/13 6:37 p.m.
fritzsch wrote: The only thing certain is nothing is certain.

This too shall pass.

drainoil
drainoil Reader
8/3/13 7:59 p.m.

Ok that being said, who could be considered the most accurate in this subject??? There has to be someone?

drainoil
drainoil Reader
8/3/13 8:01 p.m.

For the record, I'm predicting another bubble burst/ pseudo collapse in the housing market within 2 years. That's all I'm capable of predicting now in case anyone gives a rip lol.

fritzsch
fritzsch HalfDork
8/3/13 8:06 p.m.

Any particular reason you predict that?

Sultan
Sultan HalfDork
8/3/13 8:14 p.m.

I predict that the government will borrow enough money to spend us into a huge boom within the next few minutes. It is a well know FACT that any organization caring a debt load that can't pay off will always prosper. Just look at Detroit two months ago.

aircooled
aircooled PowerDork
8/3/13 8:17 p.m.

Because the ridiculous derivatives that were at the heart of the last bubble are being created again (no one bothered to regulate them) and the banks that hold your savings are still allowed to do speculative investments (as risky as they want). Those in power at the banks came out of the last one just fine so that's no deterrent. It's not exactly like last time, but many of the elements are still there.

Banking regulators you say... well... who watches the watchmen....

z31maniac
z31maniac PowerDork
8/3/13 8:37 p.m.

The Bloodlines of the Illuminati?

drainoil
drainoil Reader
8/3/13 8:46 p.m.
fritzsch wrote: Any particular reason you predict that?

Not hard to figure it out when you have this kind of rapid growth in such a short period of time:

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/06/25/Guess-which-city-saw-a-22percent-increase-in-home-prices.aspx#page1

You will have many of the same people that bought into their first mcmansion and 2 brand new cars in the garage, and lost it all, soon attempt and in more cases than not, get back into the same scenario after the 4 or 7 year penalty before they get a new mortgage and/or new car loan. The cycle repeats itself-more debt than they can handle.

Most GRM'ers wont get into this debacle but the segment of the general population that will, including segments of Wall Street and corporate America, will drag many down with them just like in 2008.

And the ever growing segment that does not work a legit job for a living and collects welfare, relief, whatever you want to call it, continues to suck at the public nipple until there will be nothing to give.

z31maniac
z31maniac PowerDork
8/3/13 10:02 p.m.
z31maniac wrote: The Bloodlines of the Illuminati?

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