Some updates:
As noted, Putler made a visit to North Korea (he apparently brought a few pairs of knee pads.... sorry). As can be see below, clearly some sort of bee investigation broke out with obvious allergies (lots of bloating and swelling going on, and everyone else seems so skinny...).
This is previous shipments. I suspect they have negotiated similar, or more amounts. This of course could represent quite a nice payday for NK and should clearly raise the standard of living for the population..... ha, ha.... obviously, it will mean Kim Jong can finally afford that silk toilet paper he has been craving...
North Korea could have transferred approximately 1.6 million artillery shells to Russia over six months, informs The Washington Post.
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/north-korea-may-have-sent-1-6m-shells-to-1719145593.html
Ukraine continues to hit refineries (I am sure Russia has hit more of the Ukrainian power grid)
The Ukrainian General Staff reported successful strikes on four Russian oil refineries—Afip, Ilya, Krasnodar, and Astrakhan—along with a radar station and electronic intelligence centers in the Bryansk region and occupied Crimea.
The West is committing more long range air defense (of note, the missiles for these are VERY expensive generally):
Ukraine will end up with more than the 7 long-range SAM systems that Zelensky had requested. Awesome work of the Free World coalition:
- 3 Patriot systems 🇩🇪+🇱🇺
- 2 Patriot systems 🇺🇸
- 1 Patriot system 🇷🇴
- 2 SAMP/T systems 🇮🇹+🇫🇷
Of note:
Current US policy regarding Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons allows Ukraine to strike anywhere within Russian-occupied Ukraine, which presumably includes using long-range ATACMS to strike the portion of the Kerch Strait Bridge within Ukraine's internationally recognized land and maritime borders.
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated that Western military assistance is arriving in Ukraine, but that it will likely not arrive at a scale that will significantly impact the frontline situation until at least mid to late July 2024.
The current understanding is that Ukraine will have around 20 fully trained F16 pilots by the end of the year. So, it appears, F16 are unlike to be in play until the end of the year.
In a large attacks on Russian facilities in Crimea, one of the ATACMS was blown off course by Russia air defense and landed very close to a resort beach. You can see the clusters hitting off shore. You can clearly see one exploding on the beach, lower left. I am sure you can fill in the blanks on what Russia is saying here.
India is making the best of the situation, cheap oil and weapons!!! (of note here is India is very much not in good relations with China):
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will undertake a quick day-long trip to Moscow on July 8, which is expected to underline the engagement between India and Russia, the historical partners who are also seeking new partnerships in the fast-changing world order.
https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/india/the-tribune-exclusive-eyeing-stronger-ties-pm-modi-to-visit-moscow-on-july-8-633761
General state appears to be the same: Russia making very small advances in various areas.... Ukraine seemingly waiting for the resupply and stepping up long range attacks and strikes on air defense.
No sign of the Russian summer offensive at this point. There is evidence Russia has heavily reduced its forces on the Finnish boarder, obviously to fill in for looses in Ukraine.
Current estimate (Ukrainian source, and stated as an estimate) of Russian looses to this point (I think the paren numbers are for the week):
25.06.2024
Tanks — 8035 (+4)
Armored fighting vehicle — 15431 (+18)
Artillery systems — 14281 (+35)
MLRS — 1108
Anti-aircraft warfare — 863
Planes — 359
Helicopters — 326
UAV — 11413 (+31)
Cruise missiles — 2324 (+1)
Ships (boats) — 28
Submarines — 1
Cars and cisterns — 19362 (+58)
Special equipment — 2403 (+6)
Military personnel — aprx. 536840 people (+1180)
aircooled said:... I am sure you can fill in the blanks on what Russia is saying here.
Russia promised retaliatory measures on the United States Monday when it summoned U.S. Ambassador Lynne Tracy to the Foreign Ministry and blamed the U.S. for a strike on Russian-occupied Crimea.
Russia claims the attack was carried out with U.S.-supplied missiles.
"Retaliatory measures will certainly follow," the Russian Foreign Ministry said. It did not provide further information.
Russia said U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, was used in the strike that killed at least four people and wounded 150.
John Bass, the State Department's acting undersecretary for political affairs, told VOA he was not aware of the strike's death toll, but he said there has been a marked contrast in the way Ukraine and Russia execute their attacks.
He said Ukraine seeks to minimize civilian casualties, while Russia's strikes have been brutal from the beginning.
Last week, the U.S. gave Ukraine permission to use U.S.-supplied longer-range missiles inside Russia but only for self-defense. Western countries have been reluctant to let Ukraine use their weapons in Russia because they do not want to provoke Russia and escalate the conflict.
Thank you all for the updates
Noddaz
PowerDork
6/27/24 7:14 a.m.
Russia is taking about 1,000 casualities per day (combination of killed and wounded) but is recruiting about 25k per month to feed the meat grinder.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/us/politics/russia-casualties-ukraine-war.html?unlocked_article_code=1.200.8EyB.RFaDGVz0wfCB&smid=url-share
I don't think they have a strategy beyond waiting for western democracies to elect less sympathetic leaders.
CrustyRedXpress said:
I don't think they have a strategy beyond waiting for western democracies to elect less sympathetic leaders.
Yep. Shades of 1979. One has to assume that the outcome of our presidential race may have a large effect on this conflict. (Leaving things vague enough not to trip the GRM political wire).
02Pilot
PowerDork
6/28/24 2:08 p.m.
In reply to CrustyRedXpress :
Changes in leadership on one side or the other, particularly among the supporters, is often the catalyst for a shift in policy, usually toward a settlement. The Korean conflict only became soluble once Stalin died. Vietnam could not be ended as long as LBJ was in office. Algeria was only settled after De Gaulle returned to office. Waiting out an administration is often a necessary precondition for ending a prolonged proxy conflict, as the existing leaders have invested so much in their side's victory that they are loathe to be seen as "selling out" their erstwhile ally, given the likely political costs of doing so. Once they're out, the new guy has no baggage and a free hand, and can do things the old guy whould have been crucified for.
It is being claimed the Russian S-500 system has been taken out, I'm seeing conflicting reports of whether it is the only one the Russians had, or if it is 1 of 2, possibly the second one is not operational yet. I think it had been in use for only two weeks.
In reply to eastsideTim :
I just heard that. Unfortunately, the video I was watching followed that announcement with a report that Dnipro had also suffered an attack on an apartment building.
One killed, six injured in Russian missile attack on Ukraine's Dnipro
Reports from other sources give higher numbers of injured.
In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :
You can be pretty sure they're waiting on France with high hopes. This strategy may be a viable one, sadly.
Edit: And you can be sure they're doing more than just waiting on these elections too.
JFW75
New Reader
6/30/24 7:47 a.m.
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) said:
Also, yesterday I saw something that I thought lended to our previous conversations regarding a potential "isolated russia":
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/baltic-nations-might-bring-forward-cut-off-russian-power-grid-2023-05-12/
Wouldn't doubt that the Baltics pull the plug on Russian power grid ASAP. Seeing lots of linemen working here in Latvia. Seems to be a big priority.
Some more updates:
"Ukraine is moving troops, weapons, and military equipment to the Belarusian borders" - belarus officials
The Belarusian Defense Ministry is reporting an increase in tension on the border with Ukraine, because "American infantry fighting vehicles, multiple launch rocket systems, heavy long-range artillery, and other equipment are deployed in the Zhytomyr region."
I am going to guess that has something to do with the fact that the initial attacks came from that area, and Russia seems to be shuffling in and out of Belarus
The EU has extended sanctions on Belarus, aligning them with those imposed on Russia to prevent circumvention of existing restrictions, according to the Council of the European Union.
"Shaheds" are now flying at an altitude of 1-1.5 km, compared to their previous altitude of 100-200 meters, according to a fighter from the mobile fire group. This change in altitude requires different equipment to shoot them down.
The Ukrainians are still using this creative approach apparently (guy in the back seat with a machine gun, WWI style). Note the number of drone kills marked under the pilot! :
On June 25, Ukrainian soldiers returned home after being released from Russian captivity. This is their physical state.
As a result of war in Ukraine, 551 children were killed and more than 1,400 were injured, according to the Office of the Prosecutor General.
Most of the injuries occurred in the frontline regions, including Donetsk (550), Kharkiv (399), Kherson (154), and Dnipropetrovsk (152).
I am going to sneak some info in here from "that other place", since it is such a toxic subject:
A while back, when an Israeli strike reportedly (by Hamas of course) killed hundreds in the refuge camp (an actual UN camp, not those basically permanent cities that continue to be called refuge camps). The pic below show where the low power explosive hit (not a large bomb). The large secondary explosion (locations shown below) where a distance away. Not entirely clear how that was set off, but the Israeli's have audio recordings of Hamas operatives talking about how their ammo dump blew up (note in picture below, that ammo dump was clearly, right next to the UN camp).
Israel currently completely controls the Philadelphia corridor, which is the boarder / road that runs between southern Gaza and Egypt. Why is this important? Israel has reportedly found many many tunnels running under the wall the Egyptians build there. Obviously those tunnels would be used to move men and equipment from (and to) Egypt. You might ask, if Egypt wants nothing to do with Gaza Palestinians (they did build a large fortified wall to keep Palestinians out!), how could they not know about these many tunnels? It would seem like they likely do (at least at a local level) and are profiting off (bribes etc) the situation. Remember, they don't like Palestinians (despite it originally being their territory), but they still hate the Israelis....
Also of note is that Israel is moving forces to the boarder of Lebanon and seem very likely to attack there. This is because Hezbollah continues to attack norther Israel from Lebanon. Would this mean Israel would be at war with Lebanon? Not really. Lebanon lets Hezbollah operate in it's southern region (with seemingly no control there) so Israel would not really be attacking Lebanon (they have effectively given up that territory). It should be noted that southern Lebanon is far more rural than most of Gaza, so it will be a different type of fighting for the most part, which advantages Israel. Of course Hezbollah is generally better equipped than Hamas, because of a more direct pipeline to their suppliers... Iran.
Some casualty info, more from the Russian side:
Russian opposition outlet Meduza states at least 64,500 Russian men died in the war until end of 2023 as per Russian mortality statistics. In 2023, on average 110 were reported dead per day (statistically more than usually, so caused by the war).
Since this is not including 2024, and these are only the men who were officially reported dead while many bodies have not been recovered yet, the actual number is probably much higher. This year is especially deadly, let's say 200 dead per day, which would add another 36,000 up to today. Then we are at 100k reported dead, and if we speculate that half of the bodies are still missing, you would be at 200k dead. In that case, the casualty numbers published by AFU with 540k dead+wounded+captured would be a good fit.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces Center for Strategic Communications (StratCom) reported on June 28 that Ukrainian forces have damaged or destroyed more than 30 Russian military aircraft in the first six months of 2024.
Some guessing that NK may be sending troops (they have a LOT) to Ukraine. It's possible they will mostly be engineers / workers etc:
North Korea will send military construction and engineering forces to participate in "restoration works" in the occupied Donetsk region starting in July this year, according to South Korean TV Chosun.
Noddaz
PowerDork
7/8/24 10:40 a.m.
So France and the UK have had their elections and Russia's "wait for western democracies to elect less sympathetic leaders" strategy isn't looking good so far.
In reply to GameboyRMH :
I am not sure what the France (been reasonable aggressively helpful recently) results might mean. It seems like similar? A change in leadership, but not sure what affect that will have.
Anyone have a read on the French?
aircooled said:
Anyone have a read on the French?
Boy, talk about a question that's been asked a million times....
The Russians had another missile spasm... Vicky is going to be busy unfortunately:
Ukrainian forces downed 30 of the 38 Russian missiles launched during a large-scale attack against multiple cities on the morning of July 8, the Air Force said.
In total, Russian forces launched one Kinzhal ballistic missile, four Iskander-M ballistic missiles, one 3M22 Zirkon hypersonic cruise missile, 13 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 14 Kalibr cruise missiles, two Kh-22 cruise missiles, and three Kh-59/69 guided aerial missiles, according to the statement.
▪️Kyiv: 15 killed and 38 injured.
▪️Krivyi Rih: 10 killed and 47 injured, 9 in serious condition.
▪️Dnipro: 1 killed and 12 injured.
▪️Pokrovsk: 3 killed.
Kyiv go hit pretty hard,
with a significant hit... on a children's hospital. This missile that hit it can be seen fully intact as it hit (so its guidance was likely still active), so it was potentially aimed there. The hospital is heavily damaged:
As a result of the Russian attack, the Okhmadyt Children's Hospital was rendered almost 80% inoperative. All communications are destroyed, leaving the facility without electricity and water, according to Oleksandr Lysytsia, head of the bone marrow transplantation department, who spoke to the Ukrainian BBC.
There are 20 critically ill patients and more than 30 less critically ill patients in its department, all of whom are children. They are currently being relocated.
The exact number of dead and injured remains unknown as the rubble of the destroyed building is still being sorted.
aircooled said:
In reply to GameboyRMH :
I am not sure what the France (been reasonable aggressively helpful recently) results might mean. It seems like similar? A change in leadership, but not sure what affect that will have.
Anyone have a read on the French?
Briefly, there are two relevant factors: the French system of government, and the politics involved in decision-making.
Under the French system, unlike most European systems, the president of the Republic has real executive power. Macron has made clear that he intends to stay in office, and as such it is not likely that his position - and thus the French public position - on support for Ukraine will change much. The changes in parliament will primarily impact long-term funding and similar questions.
The political question is far more complicated. In short, no party won a majority, and the two leading groups were coalitions, the leftist New Popular Front and Macron's centrist Ensemble, with the right-wing National Rally coming in third, but also the largest single party, with 143 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly (289 needed for a majority). Ensemble (168 seats currently) is badly weakened, having lost a lot since Macron's election, and the NPF (182 seats) was hastily formed to prevent an RN win, but is hopelessly fractured by internal policy divisions between the far left and moderate wings and unlikely to be able to settle on a candidate for PM without coming apart, or at least losing some supporters. For these reasons, Macron has not invited any party to form a new government, but has asked the current PM to stay in office, in spite of his already submitting his resignation. The net result is likely to be a period of closed-door discussions between Macron and non-RN leaders to try to figure out how to select a PM that can actually command a majority of votes. I do not expect we will see much of what's going on behind the curtain, but if Macron can pull a functioning government out of this mess - a mess of his own creation - I will be surprised.
In short, Macron has for years been trying to position France as Europe's leading power (after Brexit and Merkel's retirement opened up the field). This debacle will not help his case, which in turn raises the question of just who will present a credible voice for the EU (the EU's own leadership is powerless without support in the capitals, and everyone knows it). As far as Ukraine, it will fall down the list of French priorities until the domestic turmoil is resolved, though military support is likely to continue in the short term with little change.
Thank you 02pilot. Our own personal Wikipedia!
