In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :
And if that wasn't enough, I'm seeing reports that the russians have resorted to using donkeys for transportation/supply.
no matter how ridiculous and comical it may seem, you should never underestimate the enemy...
and if considering how muddy it is now and the roads are practically impassable, and donkeys can get through... and it doesn't seem ridiculous anymore...
I found the original publication from the news channel.
In reply to VikkiDp :
Oh, I'm very aware of the utility of animals when compared to the drawbacks of vehicles. I'm only laughing because of how "pumped up" putin wants his military to appear.
I mean, using tampons in lieu of tourniquets and saying "look how resourceful us russians are! We don't need any fancy tourniquets like the west" is one thing. But when your vehicle situation is known to be struggling due to combat losses and donkeys start to show up, one begins to think: Maybe the vehicle shortages are a BIT more catastrophic than what you previously let on...
We're talking about the supposed "second largest army in the world".
(and I feel terrible that these animals are being used, as Ukraine now needs to view them as legitimate targets).
In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :
I was just reading about the donkeys! Resourceful, Russians are. Saving fuel for attack instead of something silly like re-supply.
VikkiDp said:In reply to aircooled :
If nothing else, it seems like reasonable way to provide some offset for the US money being sent there.
I agree, it's reasonable. But most of those territories are under russians control or very close to the front line
I don't think they're gonna give someone a chance to get something
Perfect, motivates the US to make sure Ukraine has control over those areas in a peaceful way to allow for resource extraction!
The way I'm reading the sudden talk about rare earths and other resources is that it is part of a broad-based effort to establish that US interests will be 1) explicitly stated, and 2) central factors in policy decisions. By expressing clearly that the US is willing to continue to provide the necessary support for Ukraine to maintain its sovereignty going forward, the Trump administration is both ensuring that Ukraine is publicly on-board with this idea (Trump would never accept a secret deal with Ukraine, as he needs to maintain his "America First" narrative for his domestic audience), and that Russia now knows that the US has clear reasons to keep Ukraine in the fight going forward. This, in turn, will likely be intended to push Russia towards greater flexibility in terms of acceptable peace conditions.
As I've noted here before, I think the key to all of this is that Ukraine stays out of NATO; I do not see Russia accepting anything, even a temporary cease-fire, as long as that possibility remains on the table. If Ukraine pledges constitutional neutrality, and NATO pledges not to consider it for membership, Putin will have gained enough to declare victory and stop, his domestic position having been shored up. Of course, for it to be sustainable, Ukraine will require enormous amounts of money and defensive weaponry to ensure their position; even with considerable quantities of rare earths under Russian control now, the remaining deposits will pay for a lot of reconstruction and military aid, and that in turn will help the US offset Chinese rare earth sanctions (coming into play as the tariffs are implemented) and keep US weapons manufacturers busy, perhaps even enough to expand production capacity. For their part, the Chinese will be in Putin's ear telling him to keep going no matter what, as the last thing they want is for the US to undercut one of the most effective trade levers available to Beijing.
I think Putin made the mistake of taking Trump's campaign position on Ukraine too literally and too narrowly, but he (Putin) also understands transactional politics very well, probably better than most Western politicians. Recognizing that there is a now a vital US interest in play, and that Ukraine is willing to work in that interest, Putin will look to get as much as he can as quickly as he can, knowing that Trump is likely to clamp down much harder if he feels Russia is obstructing the path to peace.
Excellent analysis, as always. I hadn't considered it that way, but it makes a ton of sense. Here's hoping it works out.
bbbbRASS said:VikkiDp said:In reply to aircooled :
If nothing else, it seems like reasonable way to provide some offset for the US money being sent there.
I agree, it's reasonable. But most of those territories are under russians control or very close to the front line
Perfect, motivates the US to make sure Ukraine has control over those areas in a peaceful way to allow for resource extraction!
That was my first hopeful thought too... And in a better world with less morally (and financially) corrupt leaders, where allegiance can't just be bought by the highest bidder, I might have more readily held on to that hope.
02Pilot said:The way I'm reading the sudden talk about rare earths and other resources is that it is part of a broad-based effort to establish that US interests will be 1) explicitly stated, and 2) central factors in policy decisions. By expressing clearly that the US is willing to continue to provide the necessary support for Ukraine to maintain its sovereignty going forward, the Trump administration is both ensuring that Ukraine is publicly on-board with this idea (Trump would never accept a secret deal with Ukraine, as he needs to maintain his "America First" narrative for his domestic audience), and that Russia now knows that the US has clear reasons to keep Ukraine in the fight going forward. This, in turn, will likely be intended to push Russia towards greater flexibility in terms of acceptable peace conditions.
From a more cynical perspective, it advertises the price to beat to secure control of those territories in a 'US backed' peace agreement.
Drones discovered over Patriot air defense base in Germany
This is reported by the Süddeutsche Zeitung .
Some news:
- A summary of the above (seems to be behind a paywall):
German authorities reportedly failed to down suspected Russian reconnaissance drones flying near a German military facility in January 2025 where Ukrainian forces have undergone training. German outlet Süddeutsche Zeitung reported on February 8, citing a classified internal German report, that the German Ministry of Defense (MoD) is investigating possible espionage connected to six drone sightings near the Schwesing Airbase, where Ukrainian forces have trained to operate Patriot air defense systems, from January 9 to 29, 2025.[9] Süddeutsche Zeitung reported that German forces attempted to jam or down the drones, including with HP-47 jammers, RADIS drone detection systems, and Wingman counter-drone systems, but that German forces failed to down the drones or locate the operators in all six instances. Süddeutsche Zeitung reported that German authorities described the drones as "specialized objects" with modifications and are likely not commercially available. Süddeutsche Zeitung noted that authorities suspect that the operators launched the drones from ships in the North or Baltic seas and that the operators could be connected to Russia. A Bundeswehr spokesperson reportedly told Süddeutsche Zeitung that the German military has observed an increase in drones flying over German military facilities in an unspecified timeframe.
- Estonia has fully disconnected it's power grid from Russia
- There was a phone call reported to be between the US president and Putin. No specifics, but I suspect Putin was fully willing to accept Ukraine's unconditional surrender.
Russia continues to expand its military capabilities, indicating that the Kremlin has no immediate interest in negotiations or a lasting peace with Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, citing Ukrainian intelligence, reported on February 8 that Russian forces are forming new military divisions, building additional defense-industrial base (DIB) facilities, planning to increase military personnel by over 100,000 soldiers, and deepening military cooperations with North Korea.
- The Russians seemed to be pushing in the last few months in anticipation of some sort of very quick "keep what you get" deal that the US might push. That appears to have been a bit optimistic on their part. The Russians may be slowing down a bit recently (just running out of... everything I suspect), but the Ukrainians are now stepping up a bit. They have counter-attacked Russian positions south of Sudzha (Kursk area) and may have cut some off. This was apparently a fully mechanized attacked (tanks, APCs etc), which did result in looses, but also shows that the Ukranian's seem to be able to do actually attacks, when then really want to (can?).
The Ukrainians also counter attacked in the area of the (what appears to be primary) Russian offensive to try to capture Pokrovsk, which is a rather important road/ rail junction. The attack was to the south west in the map below, and likely shows the current weakness of the Russian assault.
Ukrainian counteroffensives aim to slow Russia and gain leverage for future negotiations
Ukrainian forces have intensified counterattacks along the entire front line, aiming to slow down Russian advances and buy time ahead of possible negotiations, French Le Figaro news agency reported on Feb. 9.
The Ukrainian troops attempt to regain initiative in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, as well as near Toretsk and Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast...
Also this (unrelated). This is a frame from a video of a US ship firing a GIGANTIC FREAKING LASER!!! Or, some sort of very high energy weapon. Any Navy guys want to identify the type, looks like a Frigate, or something pretty small. Based on what appear to be stacks, it appears to not be nuclear powerd (which would seem to be almost needed for such a thing). Clearly aimed low, but seems a bit much for an anti-cruise missile weapon. From the video, you can tell, it's just a massive amount of energy being released!
Remember people, wear your eye protection! (so your eyeballs will be the only thing that is not dust...!!!)
In reply to aircooled :
That's a Burke-class destroyer. Here is the article about that test.
In reply to aircooled :
The Warzone has a bit more in-depth article about the history and publicly known capabilities of that system.
Just wanted to get ahead of something that some might have run across: There is a certain person (who has made some asinine statements in the past and tends to parrot Russian talking points) who has made the strong statement:
"I know for a fact that up to 50% of weapons sent to Ukraine were sold to Mexican cartels"
The trail of stupidity of this statement is long. It appears to be based on a report that the DOD has not properly reported serial numbers of up to 50% of weapons sent to Ukraine (I think it's an older report, so I suspect the situation has change a bit). This appears to be mostly the result of reporting mistakes (and delays) on the US side, and in reality does not indicate the weapons where not used as intended (the Ukrainians really need these BTW, far more that drug money from Mexico!).
How he gets to "selling them to Mexican cartels", I have no idea, but if someone in Ukraine wanted to sell arms to someone, Mexican cartels would be one of the most difficult ones to do it to!!!
....I did see those cartel guys cruising around in a HIMARS the other day though.... (sarcasm, the cartels have little use for the majority of weapons sent to Ukraine!!!)
Love to see those "facts" Mr Sh&t For Brains (sorry)... hey, the guy makes money selling this stuff, so I guess he's not that stupid.
Here is Ryan McBeth's YouTube on this if you want more info / insight: https://youtu.be/glZjNpiXbe8?si=_yTheYkwUxn2BI5X
A US teacher (and former diplomat) held in Russia was unexpectedly released with little fanfare. This raises questions as to just what is afoot behind the scenes. The US National Security Advisor said it was a "show of good faith from the Russians and a sign we are moving in the right direction to end the brutal and terrible war in Ukraine". Is Russia trying to make nice with the US in advance of talks that have yet to be announced? Did the US exchange someone, or was this a goodwill release? What does Russia hope to gain here?
Nonetheless, the fact that a US special envoy was involved demonstrates a very different approach to what was seen in the previous administration. I would not be surprised to see movement fairly soon, though what form that will take is a very open question.
Noises are also coming out of Lavrov's face hole:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated that Russia is prepared for negotiations regarding Ukraine, emphasizing the need for its 'legitimate interests' to be safeguarded. However, he asserted that these interests should not come at the expense of others. Lavrov highlighted that only a complete and irreversible elimination of the root causes of the Ukrainian conflict can lead to a resolution. His comments reflect Russia's position on the ongoing tensions in the region and its willingness to engage in discussions under specific conditions.
In reply to aircooled :
That is a very strange site. It's openly AI-generated, and the sources it cites are all Russian, as far as I can tell. I would take it with several grains of salt.
In reply to 02Pilot :
Yeah, the other site I found it was Pravda. Not sure Russia would be motivated to create something like this though.
In reply to aircooled :
I don't think it's Russian-based, just that the AI sourcing is skewed, knowingly or not. And I don't trust AI not to just outright make stuff up (it's happened before).
aircooled said:Just wanted to get ahead of something that some might have run across: There is a certain person (who has made some asinine statements in the past and tends to parrot Russian talking points) who has made the strong statement:
"I know for a fact that up to 50% of weapons sent to Ukraine were sold to Mexican cartels"
The trail of stupidity of this statement is long. It appears to be based on a report that the DOD has not properly reported serial numbers of up to 50% of weapons sent to Ukraine (I think it's an older report, so I suspect the situation has change a bit). This appears to be mostly the result of reporting mistakes (and delays) on the US side, and in reality does not indicate the weapons where not used as intended (the Ukrainians really need these BTW, far more that drug money from Mexico!).
How he gets to "selling them to Mexican cartels", I have no idea, but if someone in Ukraine wanted to sell arms to someone, Mexican cartels would be one of the most difficult ones to do it to!!!
....I did see those cartel guys cruising around in a HIMARS the other day though.... (sarcasm, the cartels have little use for the majority of weapons sent to Ukraine!!!)
Love to see those "facts" Mr Sh&t For Brains (sorry)... hey, the guy makes money selling this stuff, so I guess he's not that stupid.
Here is Ryan McBeth's YouTube on this if you want more info / insight: https://youtu.be/glZjNpiXbe8?si=_yTheYkwUxn2BI5X
Tucker Carlson has replaced Alex Jones as the first person who comes to mind when I think of heavily laden asswipes. And in this day and time, that's saying something.
More info on the Fogel release. It's a trade, with the Russians getting back an unnamed US detainee today. Apparently this was brokered via the Saudis (I would not be surprised to see this diplomatic triangle continue, as the Saudis have remained relatively neutral regarding Ukraine), and clearly designed as a proof-of-concept to lay the groundwork for US-Russian talks.
What I find most interesting about this is that the US got their man back first. This is not the usual mechanism for these exchanges, which usually take place simultaneously on a neutral site. I suspect this was a Trump administration request (demand?); I suspect the Russians only complied when it was agreed there would be no public announcement until it was done.
Interesting observation on Flightradar24 this morning: an RC-135W Rivet Joint made a few passes over the Black Sea, accompanied by two Typhoons. Maybe it's my timing, but I haven't seen any surveillance activity that far out on the Black Sea for a while.
In reply to DarkMonohue :
The reason you haven't seen that sort of activity is because the operators didn't want you to see it. During the run-up and early on, these flights were in the open, but as things got more contested in the Black Sea, they went dark, as there was no reason to broadcast. Now, with negotiations set to start, and a concomitant reduction in security issues for these flights (no one is going to harrass then and potentially torpedo the talks), this is clearly signalling all parties that the West is keeping an eye on things while talks occur.
In reply to 02Pilot :
That's about what I figured. Being broadcast as this flight was seemed more like a decision to turn on the "OPEN" sign than a change in activity.
More steps toward some sort of negotiations:
US President Donald Trump held bilateral phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on February 12. Trump stated on February 12 that he discussed the war in Ukraine with Putin and that he and Putin agreed that their administrations will "immediately" begin negotiations.[1] Trump added that he planned to "inform [Zelensky] of the conversation" after his call with Putin. The official Kremlin readout of the call claimed that Putin emphasized the need to "eliminate the root causes" of the war and that Putin "agreed with" Trump that "a long-term settlement could be achieved through peaceful negotiations."[2] Russian officials have explicitly defined the "root causes" of the war as NATO's alleged violation of commitments not to advance eastward in areas near Russia's border, which indicates that the Kremlin remains committed to imposing its will and security interests on the United States and Europe and is not interested in compromising on this demand.[3] Trump confirmed his phone call with Zelensky and stated that they discussed the war and the upcoming February 14 meeting between Zelensky and US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference.[4] Zelensky stated that he and Trump discussed opportunities to achieve peace, readiness to work together, and Ukraine's technological capabilities — including drones.[5] Zelensky stated that Trump shared the details of his conversation with Putin and that he and Trump agreed to plan future bilateral meetings.
Looks like Ukraine will be keeping Sudzha then?....
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev explicitly rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's proposal to trade occupied Ukrainian territory for territory held by Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast during future peace negotiations.
And of course:
Russian forces conducted a missile and drone strike mainly targeting Kyiv City and Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on the night of February 11 and 12.
The Russian stock market jumped a bit on the negotiations news. The "internet" of course has thoughts on this (just think of something stupid that conforms with your narrative...).
The "market" in any country is a good measure of an unbiased assessment. They don't care about politics or personal believes, they just care about money (and the potential to make or lose it). They clearly see the recent moves as potentially beneficial to the Russian economy which says to things to me:
1- They see actually potential to some sort of conclusion to the fighting, (divorced from what the Russian propaganda might be saying).
2- The was is clearly such a drag on the Russian economy that even the hint of it ending, with no details on what economic (trade etc) deals might be involved it causes an immediate bump. (This of course is generally wildly obvious).
There of course are hints that the Ukrainians are being excluded from negotiations, but I think its reasonable to say the negotiations are currently very preliminary, and determining if the Russian are even remotely interested in having a somewhat reasonable discusion at all, are a needed first step. What specifically these negotiations will actually be about, and how much Ukraine is "at the table" may have not yet been determined (?)
The fact that everyone (Ukraine and the EU so far, and the Turks probably want to be there, but the use of the Saudis as the intermediary this time seems a deliberate attempt to exclude them) wants in on the talks is not surprising, but the simple math is that Russia and the US are the two necessary voices to a practical settlement. Now, excluding Ukraine would be a mistake, because Ukraine may not be able to make peace on their own, but they can sure torpedo an agreement they don't like. The EU can't do much of anything: they can't meaningfully support Ukraine on their own, they can't (and won't) make a deal with the Russians, and they have very limited influence over the US right now.
I think the US will likely give Ukraine a seat, but it already seems clear that the US is not going to tolerate delaying actions from either side. It's probably best to think about the US as a third-party facilitator here, albeit one with an interest in ending the conflict quickly. Oddly enough, this has happened before, when TR took it upon himself to mediate an end to the Russo-Japanese War (1904-5), which resulted in the Treaty of Portsmouth (yes, New Hampshire). The Japanese were winning the war, but at great cost and increasing danger of overextending themselves, while the Russians were losing, but threatened to continue fighting if they did not receive what they felt was due consideration (sound familiar?). In the end, Japan got much of what it wanted territorially (primary influence in Korea and Manchuria), but the government collapsed when the terms of the treaty suggested it had given up too much. In Russia, the loss fueled the 1905 Revolution, which resulted in the establishment of constitutional monarchy and the first parliament, but violence continued for some time until it was suppressed vigorously, including hundreds of executions almost every year until the beginning of the First World War.
For his efforts, TR was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1906.
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