I wonder... can we have a civilized COVID discussion as things (hopefully) wind down?

jmabarone said:

tuna55 said:

 

Again, why would one just assume that the data is lying at the first glance?

I have a good friend in the ICU as a nurse. She can attest to the general trends based on her own personal observations. She's held a tablet up for many dying patients so they could talk to their family one last time.

It's already been said in this thread..."authorities" flip flop on positions or get caught misleading the public and thus lose their credibility.  Going back to the "no mask, yes mask, no mask, now double mask" discussions, IF leaders had said outright to not purchase masks because healthcare workers needed them, then I am 100% on board.  But instead, they said "oh, masks don't work, so don't buy them"..."oh wait, yeah they do"...why would I trust anything they say in the future?  

There are documented cases of hospital officials stating that they need to juice the numbers of COVID patients so everyone will be concerned and get vaccinated.  Fool me once, shame on you...  

You cannot blame the public for doubting public health officials and politicians when they have been caught misleading the public or violating their own directives.  

The very first death WITH Covid at the hospital in the next county was a man with stage 4 lung cancer who happened to get it while in the hospital.  He was there literally 12 hours, contracted it, and died 6 hours later.  Now did Covid do that (being the straw that broke the camel's back) or was it just incredibly poor timing?  A close friend lost his mother (who lived in Alaska) in late January of 2020 due to aggressive breast cancer.  When they were finalizing the death certificate, he was asked if they could list Covid as the cause of death, even though she had not been tested for it before she passed and she had no exposure or symptoms.  

Now I have 3 good examples of questionable reporting on Covid from hospital officials...why should I trust everything they say?  

Like I said earlier...probably not.  

I want to add to this again. First those are only two examples I think. Second, do you really believe it's possible for ever coroner in every county in ever state in the country, along with every coroner in every hospital in every other country to be lying all by about the same amount in the same way at the same time? Did they discuss it in the coroners secret meetings? Of course there will be noise in the data, and some data will be wrong, but this is individually collected data by an incredibly large list of people, and they (that is, the data) are all saying the same thing.

In reply to tuna55 :

You might want to look at what makes people susceptible to conspiracy theories. Education seems to play a large role. 

Related! Has everybody in this thread already gotten their Omicron booster and the Flu shot sidecar?

CrustyRedXpress said:

In reply to tuna55 :

You might want to look at what makes people susceptible to conspiracy theories. Education seems to play a large role. 

Related! Has everybody in this thread already gotten their Omicron booster and the Flu shot sidecar?

I need to understand that better, you are right. Conspiracy theories are interesting in that people will torture themselves to explain away incredibly obvious problems to prove their pet theory, despite the truth being obvious and provable. An experiment like the "Birds aren't real" thing is proof that conspiracies can pop up anywhere. I don't understand it. I think it's a combination of insecurity (Because 9/11 is scary and unknowable, so I have invented this other theory where there is a specific group of "them" who are evil and powerful and we have to fight against "them") and pride (Oh, you don't know about that? Let me tell you the real truth "they" don't want you to know! (This is the Tucker Carlson method))

I don't know why people don't pull their heads up and say "Wait, I have eaten chicken. I have eaten duck. I saw an egg hatch in my window. I have birds at my birdfeeder, obviously birds are real."

Russian Warship, Go Berkeley Yourself said:

What is that thing that AngryCorvair is so fond of saying lately?

"My car won't be ready for the Challenge this year"?? 

I have this strip hanging on my wall at work, and IMO it pretty much sums up our collective response to the entire run of the pandemic.   I'm not trying to flounder this thread, and I commend Tuna for the attempt at rational conversation about what we've all been enduring for the past few years.   We're all entitled to our opinions, but until we can agree on the facts of what has occurred, well we don't have a chance in hades of mitigating whatever plague may befall us next.   (The strip first ran November 29, 1995 btw)

tuna55 said:

 

I want to add to this again. First those are only two examples I think. Second, do you really believe it's possible for ever coroner in every county in ever state in the country, along with every coroner in every hospital in every other country to be lying all by about the same amount in the same way at the same time? Did they discuss it in the coroners secret meetings? Of course there will be noise in the data, and some data will be wrong, but this is individually collected data by an incredibly large list of people, and they (that is, the data) are all saying the same thing.

To be fair, I was classifying my 2 personal examples along with the hospital board (in NC) that wanted to "scare everyone into getting vaccinated".  

A conspiracy just needs 2 people .  Now seriously, I'm not suggesting a grand conspiracy by hospital officals, coroners, the illuminati, etc., but when you have examples (noise, as you say) in the data that throw up red flags, it is reasonable to question them.  When people did question it, they would be piled on for "not trusting the science".  

tuna55 said:

 

I don't know why people don't pull their heads up and say "Wait, I have eaten chicken. I have eaten duck. I saw an egg hatch in my window. I have birds at my birdfeeder, obviously birds are real."

That's what they want you to think!

Tuna. You and I are engineers and we genersllly have been taught to find the data and draw conclusions from it.   We've also been taught that data can change and to understand the reasons for change.  
 

Generally people don't like it when what they've been told for some time changes.  They create doubt and mistrust.  But to you and I it's just another data point.  
 

Emotions should fall to data. But that's not how it works. And everyone is distracted by "woke math".  What the hell is woke math?  How can math have a slant to it?  

Which facts do we need to agree on?

The vaccine does not stop infection or spread.

The vaccine does greatly reduce the chance of severe diseases or death.

Comorbidities are a major factor impacting outcome in terms of severe disease or death.

Cloth mask are not effective at preventing spread of the disease.

Properly fitted N95 mask are effective at spreading the disease.

I am guessing that these "facts" will align with some peoples beliefs and be seen as conspiracy theory by others. 

By now there should be sufficient data to scientifically determine which ones of these are facts and which ones remain unknown.  If the data doesn't exist or hasn't been collected 2 + years later and analyzed, then that is also a miss in our response and does not bode well for future events.

fusion66 said:

 

Which facts do we need to agree on?

 

The vaccine does not stop infection or spread.

 

 

 

 

Ehh. The more vaccine in the wild the mess spread. No vaccine actually stops or prevents spread.  A mass of people who are less sucepyible to the disease eventually slows and stops spread. 

jmabarone said:

tuna55 said:

 

I want to add to this again. First those are only two examples I think. Second, do you really believe it's possible for ever coroner in every county in ever state in the country, along with every coroner in every hospital in every other country to be lying all by about the same amount in the same way at the same time? Did they discuss it in the coroners secret meetings? Of course there will be noise in the data, and some data will be wrong, but this is individually collected data by an incredibly large list of people, and they (that is, the data) are all saying the same thing.

To be fair, I was classifying my 2 personal examples along with the hospital board (in NC) that wanted to "scare everyone into getting vaccinated".  

A conspiracy just needs 2 people .  Now seriously, I'm not suggesting a grand conspiracy by hospital officals, coroners, the illuminati, etc., but when you have examples (noise, as you say) in the data that throw up red flags, it is reasonable to question them.  When people did question it, they would be piled on for "not trusting the science".  

 

That's all pretty fair, but again the question has arisen. Sure, there are some examples of bad behavior as you stated. Nobody is denying that here. But if you agree that there is no grand conspiracy (Which, I might add, is lunacy), then why not simply move on, knowing that the data has noise?

Just for the record, this may simply be a misunderstanding of data. There is always noise and bias in data, even simple measurements.

Fueled by Caffeine said:

Tuna. You and I are engineers and we genersllly have been taught to find the data and draw conclusions from it.   We've also been taught that data can change and to understand the reasons for change.  
 

Generally people don't like it when what they've been told for some time changes.  They create doubt and mistrust.  But to you and I it's just another data point.  
 

Emotions should fall to data. But that's not how it works. And everyone is distracted by "woke math".  What the hell is woke math?  How can math have a slant to it?  

This is a good point and I thank you for it

Fueled by Caffeine said:

fusion66 said:

 

Which facts do we need to agree on?

 

The vaccine does not stop infection or spread.

 

 

 

 

Ehh. The more vaccine in the wild the mess spread. No vaccine actually stops or prevents spread.  A mass of people who are less sucepyible to the disease eventually slows and stops spread. 

A vaccine absolutely does reduce spread because the viral load in the body is reduced for whoever is infected, and they have it for far far far less time.

tuna55 said:

Fueled by Caffeine said:

fusion66 said:

 

Which facts do we need to agree on?

 

The vaccine does not stop infection or spread.

 

 

 

 

Ehh. The more vaccine in the wild the mess spread. No vaccine actually stops or prevents spread.  A mass of people who are less sucepyible to the disease eventually slows and stops spread. 

A vaccine absolutely does reduce spread because the viral load in the body is reduced for whoever is infected, and they have it for far far far less time.

On thing I also think is at work here in this particular fact is the word "reduced". When we say reduced, we think of shaving a few tenths off a lap. When we say the viral load is reduced, we're talking about five or six powers of ten. It's still nonzero, sure, but the reduction seems muted by the language.

I think that is the point where this conversation crosses over towards political.  I don't think it is wise to go there.  Unfortunately, I think that is the way most of these discussions (not on here, in general life) will go.  People who have have questioned data or talking points get told to shut up and then they just withdraw from the conversation.  Pretty soon, you just have an echo chamber with no dissenting opinion.  

jmabarone said:

I think that is the point where this conversation crosses over towards political.  I don't think it is wise to go there.  Unfortunately, I think that is the way most of these discussions (not on here, in general life) will go.  People who have have questioned data or talking points get told to shut up and then they just withdraw from the conversation.  Pretty soon, you just have an echo chamber with no dissenting opinion.  

I'm not sure this is necessary. I am not dismissing, I am seeking to understand. I do not believe we are destined to go political here.

Scotty Con Queso said:

Russian Warship, Go Berkeley Yourself said:

What is that thing that AngryCorvair is so fond of saying lately?

"My car won't be ready for the Challenge this year"?? 

OMG i just snarfed Vernors all over my monitor.  you, Mr. Queso, have won this thread.

In reply to Fueled by Caffeine :

Is there evidence now suggesting that with a certain level of participation the current Covid vaccines could provide herd immunity? I just tried a search on this and it seems herd immunity mostly stopped being discussed in late 2021. 

fusion66 said:

In reply to Fueled by Caffeine :

Is there evidence now suggesting that with a certain level of participation the current Covid vaccines could provide herd immunity? I just tried a search on this and it seems herd immunity mostly stopped being discussed in late 2021. 

For the record, we have never, in the history on human civilization, achieved herd immunity without a vaccine. It isn't like a choice we are avoiding.

Heard immunity I believe is effectively impossible at this point because those that get it, or are vaccinated, can be re-infected at some point (think rolling waves of infection, bouncing back and forth across the country).   Even if everyone in the US got it (or vaccinated) at the same time and it effectively disappeared in the US, it only takes one infected traveler (see China currently for that situation) to start the wave over again once the immunity period wanes.

It would kind of be like (actually very much like I believe), trying to reach herd immunity to the cold.

Question:  Has there ever been a vaccine that didn't provide long term protection from re-infection? 

In reply to aircooled :

Thank you for that perspective. That is what I am trying to understand. I suspect that this is correct but I haven't heard much talk about herd immunity lately.

tuna55 said:

Fueled by Caffeine said:

Tuna. You and I are engineers and we genersllly have been taught to find the data and draw conclusions from it.   We've also been taught that data can change and to understand the reasons for change.  
 

Generally people don't like it when what they've been told for some time changes.  They create doubt and mistrust.  But to you and I it's just another data point.  
 

Emotions should fall to data. But that's not how it works. And everyone is distracted by "woke math".  What the hell is woke math?  How can math have a slant to it?  

This is a good point and I thank you for it

More on this. Definitely this makes a good engineer. Do something, measure the results, do something else, measure the results, etc.

Don't people do this normally? I do this thing, it didn't work, let me try this other thing... Perhaps that's what I mean by "being an adult", which means swallowing your pride and accepting things as they come, instead of refuting obvious proof and sticking to your initial statements. Like how my kid refuses to admit putting their shoes on their floor in the face of all evidence.

tuna55 said:

Fueled by Caffeine said:

Tuna. You and I are engineers and we genersllly have been taught to find the data and draw conclusions from it.   We've also been taught that data can change and to understand the reasons for change.  
 

Generally people don't like it when what they've been told for some time changes.  They create doubt and mistrust.  But to you and I it's just another data point.  
 

Emotions should fall to data. But that's not how it works. And everyone is distracted by "woke math".  What the hell is woke math?  How can math have a slant to it?  

This is a good point and I thank you for it

A most excellent point here. Two very different things can be true once the context changes. Except some forget that context and start the outrage cycle. Reminds me of those math problems people put on facebook and ask for the right answer (when there can't be one, due to no context and really poor ways of writing it to make the order of operations vague)

In reply to AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter) :

Glad I could brighten your day. And with that, I'll exit this thread. Y'all be good.