History in the Making: Russian Invasion

gearheadmb said:

Chrissmith said:

They may take Ukraine, but imagine trying to keep hold of Ukraine. the underground resistance will be huge.

This was my thought also. My guess is the Ukrainian government may fall fairly quickly, but Russia could get bogged down for a long time fighting a Ukrainian insurgency. How that turns out depends on how determined the Ukrainian people, how hard the sanctions hit russia, and how much the Russian people support the war effort. 

well, if they're anything like these 13 it's gonna be a while.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-soldiers-snake-island-russia-warship-b2023039.html

Just a thought regarding morale and support.  Even totalitarian governments need some level of consent of the governed (thought a lot lower than other forms of government).  I wonder how disciplined the Russian soldiers will be in getting battlefield reports back to their families and friends.  If atrocities get found out about or just if casualties are higher than state news is willing to report, it could have a major effect on support back home.  With seemingly everyone having a smart phone nowadays, there are a lot more ways for information to flow.

bobzilla said:

if the Ukranian army had a couple dozen A-10's and Apaches to accompany the Mig-29's providing air cover for the russians. Maybe it's just me wishing they could have had their Fulda Gap moment.

Indeed. A fleet of Apaches and A10s would be very helpful right now.

I've stayed out of this thread so far but something I've noticed that is weird and disturbing is how little resistance/fighting appears to be actually happening.  If the Ukrainians were really fighting there would be thousands of casualties on both sides.  Instead it's a couple of hundred (possibly less).  Ukrain has a standing military of 360,000 troops, WTF are they actually doing?  The kids in Red Dawn were a more effective fighting force. 

It's feeling like a replay of the Afghan military melting away before the Taliban.

You can tell he russian army has forgotten the threat of the A10, or they know it's not an issue here. There's a few videos of T80's rolling singe file down a highway. In my head I see that column and hear the brrrrrrrrt and knowing that if the US was involved those would either all be dead, or not travelling in a single file column making the easies gun run in history for an A10 driver.

In reply to KyAllroad :

We are witnessing the first all out war between two modern nations using modern tactics.  I suspect both sides are averse to an extreme number of casualties on their own side, and their tactics are based on that.  Could change rapidly the more desperate Ukraine becomes, though.

KyAllroad said:

I've stayed out of this thread so far but something I've noticed that is weird and disturbing is how little resistance/fighting appears to be actually happening.  If the Ukrainians were really fighting there would be thousands of casualties on both sides.  Instead it's a couple of hundred (possibly less).  Ukrain has a standing military of 360,000 troops, WTF are they actually doing?  The kids in Red Dawn were a more effective fighting force. 

It's feeling like a replay of the Afghan military melting away before the Taliban.

Real life isnt an 80s b-roll movie.  
 

I expect the reporting will get more accurate over time, getting the truth out of an active warzone can be complicated (and conflicting).

From reports i'm seeing on BBC, this hasn't been a walk in the park for Russian forces.  the Ukraine defence ministry says 1000 Russian soldiers killed.  The UK Armed Forces Minister told members of parliment that 450 Russian soldiers and 194 Ukrainians, including 57 civilians have been killed.  If Putin doesn't get this wrapped up quickly, this could be a quagmire of epic proportions.  BBC now reports that Ukrainian military vehicles are entering Kyiv to defend the city.  They aren't going down without a fight.  

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60517447

Not at all surprising (from the BBC):

Kremlin: Russia ready for talks with Ukraine on 'neutrality'

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says that Russia is ready for talks with Ukraine in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, official Russian news agency RIA Novosti reports.

But he said this would have to be about Ukraine declaring a "neutral status" - which would include "demilitarisation". Russia has all along wanted Ukraine to rule out ever joining Nato.

Ukraine's president has called for talks with Vladimir Putin but there is no indication that he will agree to talks on this basis.

Minsk is significant because it's where agreements were signed to try and bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine's east that broke out in 2014.

By invading Ukraine, Russia's leader is seen as having torn up those agreements.

Earlier Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said no talks could be held until the Ukrainian military lays down its arms.

In reply to Flynlow (FS) :

I was a medic in Desert Storm.  If there were serious fighting going on there would be thousands of casualties.  We'd be seeing a HUGE flow of wounded back from the front line.  Instead we're seeing tanks cruising down the highway apparently free of fear.  It isn't that hard to slow down invaders, the Ukrainians just don't seem to be doing much so far.

(and yes I know the difference between a movie and real life, I was using it as a point to show how pathetic the defense has been so far.)

There's been a lot of "People of Russia, how do you feel about the situation in Ukraine?" threads on Reddit, and a lot of the responses are "We don't even get what this is about or why we're there." Maybe not the most reliable source of info, but it's all just very strange

KyAllroad said:

I've stayed out of this thread so far but something I've noticed that is weird and disturbing is how little resistance/fighting appears to be actually happening.  If the Ukrainians were really fighting there would be thousands of casualties on both sides.  Instead it's a couple of hundred (possibly less).  Ukrain has a standing military of 360,000 troops, WTF are they actually doing?  The kids in Red Dawn were a more effective fighting force. 

It's feeling like a replay of the Afghan military melting away before the Taliban.

360k soldiers was the goal by 2025. Actual numbers are much closer to 200k

Im sure at least a few of those are from the Eastern Ukranian regions that have decent amount of Pro-Russian sentiments. Russia seems to have initially focused on Ukranian military positions and support (both physical infrastructure and cyber/coms). Blowing up a runway or bridge doesn't have high casualties, and Ukranians downing a couple of aircraft here and there really doesn't either.

Im guessing the Ukranians concentrated troops in defensive positions around select priority targets knowing they can't really compete head to head with Russia's might.

The casualties are likely to mount in the coming days as things transition from targeted air missions to heavy artillery and finally close quarter skirmishes (with untrained civilians in the mix) to wrest control of cities.

Keep in mind that the initial entry points that were fortified were not used by the russians from what I've seen, so the Ukrainian forces weren't where they needed to be. Tha was my understanding from what we could find yesterday.

If you were a Ukrainian citizen of a certain age, you grew up in the Soviet Union.  You may even have a certain "Meh" attitude, figuring that being part of Russia is better than having your country torn to bits and landing in an early grave.  It's entirely possible that being a Russian isn't the horrible experience we've been told it is.

Putin is a douche.  He's the playground bully, and will do what he wants, and the cost of standing up to him is a wedgie of the worst sort.  

Edit:  Also, I'm pretty sure resistance movements take a while to form.  Individual acts of defiance are common, and futile probably, but proper damage takes time and organisation.

Anonymous declares 'cyber war' against Putin's government

Ok.  

In reply to Streetwiseguy :

I wonder if it would be the same sentiment if the NATO, US, and the rest of Europe were less "meh" (will check back in a month) and bit more firm on regulating Russia. At the same time your home is being destroyed and likely not being built back up might change the mind set of the Ukrainians. Higher numbers in casualties and months or years of battle I would think would change both sides. As someone had mentioned maybe in a month from now Russia comes to the table and negotiates and the rest of the world forgets about it (Paraphrasing a quote from Hotel Rwanda).

In reply to trigun7469 :

Well...  Without trying to be too much of a douche, I'm going to go ahead and ask what your opinion would be of some world governing body trying to regulate and reign in the United States?  

Any particular reason the Russians would react differently?

In reply to Streetwiseguy :

Slightly different situation.  The US isn't rolling tanks across the Rio Grande to occupy Mexico.

Ukrainians overthrew the former puppet govt, I think they're pretty well set on not being Russian. They're also not ethnically Russian, having their own history and language, and that kind of thing doesn't do well under Russian rule. As for casualties, I would guess that the Ukrainians know they can't win a stand up fight at the without air superiority that they don't have. The Russians were also moving fast, relying on speed and shock to carry the day. As things bog down and Ukrainian forces condense into their strongholds, I would expect the fighting to intensify. 

On the subject of re-arming, I don't know why we couldn't send more armaments from the West as long as Ukraine can keep a supply line open. Even if they can't, it wouldn't be the first time we've armed partisan forces against Russia. 

On the subject of peace, lmao. Russia wants the demilitarization of Ukraine, of course, and probably would not accept any offer without a change in government. They also want the nebulous "denazification" of Ukraine. I see that as the catch-all for the rest of Putin's wishlist. In sum, it's all or nothing for Ukraine and we're all gonna watch the beat down from the sidelines.

NickD said:

There's been a lot of "People of Russia, how do you feel about the situation in Ukraine?" threads on Reddit, and a lot of the responses are "We don't even get what this is about or why we're there." Maybe not the most reliable source of info, but it's all just very strange

I'm not sure anyone knows what this is about. I haven't heard any good explanation of what the point is. 

In reply to KyAllroad :

This discussion won't go to a good place, so I won't take it farther.

In reply to Error404 :

dont forget he also wants all US and NATO forces out of former soviet bloc countries. 

Noddaz said:

Anonymous declares 'cyber war' against Putin's government

Ok.  

This is interesting. If they were really good at hacking, could they now disconnect the military communications? Could they wreck the navigation systems of the missiles, radar, aircraft etc? That would be neat.

Hungary has opened its borders to Ukraine and 3rd-country citizens fleeing Ukraine.  The line at the border is said to be "kilometers long".  As I understand, it's simply a "transit" opening and individuals will be escorted to the nearest airport (Debrecen?) to exit.

We're 7-hours away, and probably not able to do much but efforts have started locally to gather and deliver aid.  Several Facebook pages have started in Hungarian and immediately gathered hundreds of followers to assist Ukrainians.  One is offering to temporarily house pets that refugees can't take with them to camps (we've offered to take up to 3 animals, people have offered their farms to take in horses, etc), and others are working on gathering supplies (water, food, money, etc).  As it is now, aid and offers to help are coming in faster than the local organizers can keep track of and places where it's needed are coming in faster.

A former manager of mine, and 100% the person responsible for my promotion to this position of my dreams, is married to a Ukrainian who still has family in the homeland.  The last report I received from them was her family was still in contact but are in "shock" at what is happening/unfolding.  They have our contact info and have been informed that we posses a 4wd Toyota and a complete lack of regard for our own personal safety.   I haven't yet heard from Slefain, but did send an e-mail.  We do hope his Uncle is ok, and our offer still stands.

Otherwise life here would be 100% normal if you didn't turn on the news.  Work is a bit busier than it has been these last three weeks...  Kids are in school...   There aren't any long lines at the gas stations or grocery stores, no one's hoarding, and shelves are full.  Mostly, I've just been doing work at our new house to burn off some of this pent up energy I get from watching these sorts of things.  So far it's been working.  In fact, the only thing that strikes me as odd about how this entire situation is unfolding is the complete silence that's coming from leadership.  This isn't my first rodeo by any means, but this is the first time I've been involved with silent leadership.  More to follow there, I'm sure.

Mrs. Hungary and I have been in continuous discussions since this thread started (this has been and continues to be our best source of well-rounded information, so thank you guys) and continue to update our three plans as necessary.  Simply put, they're:

1) ah, E36 M3...
2) oh berkeley.
3) berkeley! berkeley! berkeley!

We're at #1 at the moment.  It simply involves having a plan, keeping the cars at half tank, and keeping a few extra dry goods in the house.  For contrast, #3 is reserved for the threat of an airstrike or an attack on the base.  But (as it has already been discussed) that's looking very unlikely unless Putin decides overnight that he wants to take a jab at NATO's C-17 airlift capability (so, we should have plenty of warning?).

Up and to this morning, we were 100% hoping we were just being over-anxious, over-thinking, and were over-preparing.  We no longer have any doubts that we very much weren't.

This sucks and watching families shelter in subway stations has me absolutely wrecked.

Reports of Ukraine hitting a Russian airbase in Russia including geolocated photos of burning buildings and SU-30 wreckage. They are absolutely fighting back.