this aligns with reports I am seeing and aligns with the videos of people surrendering.
this aligns with reports I am seeing and aligns with the videos of people surrendering.
bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) said:In reply to STM317 :
That makes no sense. Taking Ukraine puts him right in the crosshairs of NATO, with a much longer border to defend and no buffer country. This was never about NATO.
My amateur working theory is that he doesn't want Ukraine for himself. He wants to install a friendly government there, like he had in the recent past. It's the same as what he's got in Belarus. He won't have to defend it directly, and it keeps NATO further from Russia. When the friendly government in Ukraine was overthrown and replaced with a democracy, NATO potentially got much closer to Russia. He's trying to prevent that expansion by having a series of buffer nations with puppet governments. Hence the concern from other bordering nations that aren't currently in NATO like Finland.
Im open to hearing other reasoning of course if you've got an alternate theory.
Fueled by Caffeine said:this aligns with reports I am seeing and aligns with the videos of people surrendering.
Most of Russia's military are conscripts. They do have some more "professional" units though. Along those lines, I heard someone talk about seeing the interrogation of the commander of the Reconnaissance platoon that surrendered early on. His basic comment was:
"We came across some solders that looked like us. They started firing at us. We thought it was a friendly fire episode, so we surrendered"
This talks to the level of preparedness and dedication of some of the Russian units. I suspect many of these are in the eastern area. I would suspect those would be the first to break, if they do. It's highly likely most of the elite units are headed to Kiev, the airborne units certainly are. They are going to need them if they go into the city (rather than just shell it flat)
As of 2021, all male citizens aged 18–27 are subject to conscription for 1 year of active duty military service in armed forces, but the precise number of conscripts for each of the recruitment campaigns, which are usually held twice annually, is prescribed by particular Presidential Decree.[12] Russian law provides some grounds for temporary postponement of and permanent exemption from military draft.
In reply to STM317 :
I think the other viewpoint is that it's not about Ukraine joining NATO as much as it's about having a stable, successful, western-style democracy on his door step. Even if they aren't in NATO, it weakens Putin's position with his own people because the Russians can see how much better the Ukrainians have it, despite having started from roughly the same place when they wall fell down.
I thought Thomas Friedman wrote on this but I can't find it now.
In reply to CrustyRedXpress :
Yeah. I agree. If it was really about NATO, they would have objected more when the subject first came up. Or when the round of eastern European nations joined in 2008 (I think that is the right year?)
Heck 2014 pretty much settled the issue of NATO because there was no way NATO member nations would admit a nation already in the middle of a conflict as Ukraine was.
STM317 said:bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) said:In reply to STM317 :
That makes no sense. Taking Ukraine puts him right in the crosshairs of NATO, with a much longer border to defend and no buffer country. This was never about NATO.
My amateur working theory is that he doesn't want Ukraine for himself. He wants to install a friendly government there, like he had in the recent past. It's the same as what he's got in Belarus. He won't have to defend it directly, and it keeps NATO further from Russia. When the friendly government in Ukraine was overthrown and replaced with a democracy, NATO potentially got much closer to Russia. He's trying to prevent that expansion by having a series of buffer nations with puppet governments. Hence the concern from other bordering nations that aren't currently in NATO like Finland.
Im open to hearing other reasoning of course if you've got an alternate theory.
I think that you'right. But also, Ukraine is the country with the largest number of Slavs outside of Russia, so there is a lot of ethnic crossover. Putin wasn't at all happy about the disolution of the Soviet empire, but Ukraine is the cut that hurts the most. The thing is that if he get's away with it, will he be content to stop there?
In reply to 06HHR (Forum Supporter) :
Hence why I stated "if this is true"
I'm going to agree on that point.
Russia doesn't want an ethnic Russian country right outside its borders without Russian oligarchs running it. Ukraine's largest minority and largest demographic of migrants are Russians.
Now, The Donbas kinda jacked that up a bit. Ukraine didn't like the idea that all these Russians were wanting to split off part of the country. This would be comparable to Miami wanting to become it's Cuban-speaking nation and Cuba supporting it. Donetsk and Luhanzk don't want to be a part of Russia (because many of them know firsthand how that went) but they wouldn't mind self-determination. They certainly don't like being stiffed by Kyiv.
Moscow was left two options:
1) Invade the Donbas, claiming to be peacekeepers. This may have gone alright. I actually thought this would be their move. The UN and NATO were fully aware that Kyiv's isolation of far east Ukraine was negatively impacting that region. Downside for Russia would've been all the negative press for a tiny bit of land. It also wouldn't do anything to keep Ukraine from prospering and drawing migrants across the border.
2) Invade all of Ukraine. Lots of risk, lots of reward. At first I thought "this is a bad move because Ukraine isn't going to rollover, the economic impacts to Russia are huge, and if they lose, Ukraine will almost certainly join NATO." What did Russia have to gain from controlling Ukraine? Then I realized RUSSIA DOESNT CARE about the economy of an puppet state in Ukraine. It WANTS TO level Ukraine.
Russia needs buffer states that are completely desolate. Why? So Russian can't waltz across borders and say "hey, it's pretty good over here." They want Russians to see Russia as a gleaming beacon in Eastern Europe. If all the former Soviet states embrace the EU, NATO and the west, it'll put tons of pressure on Moscow to just go with the flow and considering the Russian economy is peanuts compare to Germany, (5th vs 9th) Russia would start looking like the relatively undeveloped country it is.
In reply to pheller :
I've been to Miami. Seemed like it was part of Cuba...
Ok, prolly wrong place for humor.
I'll let myself out...
In reply to 03Panther :
Dude you're right. I've been to Quebec. Seemed like France. Maybe the French should invade?
this Is a post in jest.
In reply to Fueled by Caffeine :
Territorial sovereignty is a big thing for China since it considers Taiwan it's territory.
Also China is going to only act for China so whatever puts them in the best position is what they will do.
Fueled by Caffeine said:
Is xi starting to play ball?
I have my own personal theories on china, and one of them is they're extremely over leveraged and couldn't necessarily afford a war. The other includes thoughts like, if china does want to do something, they don't have a lot of allies, and Russia would likely be one of them- and if Russia ends up eating crow over this, it's going to hurt china a great deal in the long term. They're probably of the mind that diplomacy is the answer, instead of showing your cards way too early.
Mndsm said:Fueled by Caffeine said:
Is xi starting to play ball?
I have my own personal theories on china, and one of them is they're extremely over leveraged and couldn't necessarily afford a war. The other includes thoughts like, if china does want to do something, they don't have a lot of allies, and Russia would likely be one of them- and if Russia ends up eating crow over this, it's going to hurt china a great deal in the long term. They're probably of the mind that diplomacy is the answer, instead of showing your cards way too early.
I don't claim to be a China expert but there's a lot of work here. There have actually been quite a few criticisms of China from inside which have stood, and it seems Xi is more interested in Chinese purity than in Chinese prosperity, I don't think that will sit well with the people, and I do think in the short term it will weaken them. He can't not know this, and I believe the next 10 years will be very interesting to watch. I could not hope to predict.
In reply to Mndsm :
This seems like a great take.
To add to it, they could be wanting to watch and learn, and seeing how bad this is looking on the international scale, wanting to save some face ahead of any presumed loyalties.
Fueled by Caffeine said:Is xi starting to play ball?
Well, they certainly seem to be getting a sense of humor...
Taiwan...
...oh, I am sorry, that isn't a country is it? Just a breakaway area, that needs to be reunited (that sounds strangely familiar...), and what have you been doing with your military, to that island, recently?
Here is a thought:
Russia supplies a LOT of natural gas to Europe. That pipeline crosses through Ukraine. I think Russia is supposed to be paying Ukraine for that (I suspect that has stopped). Europe is kind of leaving Ukraine out in the cold (so to speak).
What do you figure that chances are that Ukraine will destroy that pipeline at some point?
Leaving Europe out in the cold, literally.
(looks like some do bypass Ukraine also)
In reply to mtn :
Or, and this could be the REALLY long game- it could be a multi-level sacrifice scandal. From what everyone is saying, most of the Russian forces actually fighting are conscripts and guys that just wanna sit at home and be cool, not do a bunch of invading. Russia has to know that they particular brand of soldier isn't great for siege. HOWEVER- we already know the Russian media is controlling what everyone sees on their side of the fence. Putin has gone on record as accusing Ukrainians as being neo Nazis and all sorts of other degenerates, which let's face it no one likes. If that's all they see, that's what the Russian population is going to believe. Nothing like a little war to save freedom to make you look like the good guy....and if a few thousand Russians get fed to the dogs in the name of the greater good, more power to Russia, right? And what if...WHAT IF....china's playing an extended version of that. Let's sacrifice our Russian friends, let them get mashed, and stir up Chinese patriotism. "We have to protect china. It is our home"... that sort of sentiment. It could provide a seismic shift for china to assert further control and bolster what I believe to be a slowly collapsing regime. China looks super strong, but I'm willing to bet that tree is hollow.
Plus, let's be real. War makes money move. We got out of the great depression via ww2. There's tons of panic locally over inflation and lack of goods, I can't imagine how someone on Russia's level is doing.
In reply to aircooled :
I know it's been brought up before in some other thread that got locked, but crippling your own resources can be an effective way to dissuade the opposition.
aircooled said:Here is a thought:
Russia supplies a LOT of natural gas to Europe. That pipeline crosses through Ukraine. I think Russia is supposed to be paying Ukraine for that (I suspect that has stopped). Europe is kind of leaving Ukraine out in the cold (so to speak).
What do you figure that chances are that Ukraine will destroy that pipeline at some point?
Leaving Europe out in the cold, literally.
Nord Stream 1 is already active and bypasses Ukraine.
Crippling your own resources is a good way to hamper your recovery too.
To a certain extent Ukraine needs that flow of gas more than Russia does. Russia could probably leverage it to lay siege to Ukraine, but would piss off downstream customers as well. Luckily Ukraine only has 4 natural gas power plants.
y'know, it just occurred to me that this situation is precisely what the Green Berets in Europe were training for since the early 60's. The only significant difference would be the need to speak Russian instead of German. Somehow I don't think the US Army Special Forces are wanting for Russian-speaking troops. I have to believe the other NATO members also have special forces units dedicated to training and conducting guerrilla warfare. I'd bet a six pack of beer there are a sizeable contigent of NATO troops currently on the ground in Ukraine...
In reply to stroker :
There is video and audio of American and British voices in a fire fight.
Mndsm said:In reply to aircooled :
I know it's been brought up before in some other thread that got locked, but crippling your own resources can be an effective way to dissuade the opposition.
Indeed, it was part of Russia's strategy in WW2. Early on, when they knew they couldn't stop the Germans, they burned everything behind them as they retreated, so as not to leave anything useful.
stroker said:I'd bet a six pack of beer there are a sizeable contigent of NATO troops currently on the ground in Ukraine...
You think there are active duty UK, Polish, US, French, German etc. forces conducting FOID missions in Ukraine in the middle of an active muli axis invasion of the country by the Russians? Not only that, but a sizable contingent?
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