Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) PowerDork
12/9/24 6:30 a.m.

 

Not sure if it's been touched on, but I didn't see it on the last three pages.  In addition to russian influence in Syria and the success of the Kurds, Georgia (country) is on day 9 of protests after the gov (seen as Kremlin inspired, IIRC) walked back talks with the EU:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/3/georgia-protests-whats-behind-them-and-whats-next

 

Citation for photo:  https://apnews.com/article/georgia-protest-opposition-police-violence-russia-tbilisi-6c7bf69d66c468c5833d97a60ba3461b

And a pro-russian candidate in Romania is now having their first-round election results annulled after it was found that russia had coordinated the campaign to boost the far-right candidate.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/6/romanias-top-court-annuls-results-of-presidential-elections-first-round

I'm beginning to think that having a former KGB agent as the leader of a global super-power may have had some outside ramifications... and perhaps that said leader may have funded and pushed slow burning propaganda campaigns that are now starting to show signs of smoke.

 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
12/9/24 1:26 p.m.

I think I mentioned it briefly here.  One of the issues is if I mention Georgia, most will think peaches (for the US state, in case you are not familiar).

The good news(!) is that Russia now has a spare brutal dictator they can put in place there to take care of those pesky citizens!

The Israelis are also taking advantage of the Syrian situation by blowing the hell out of any military equipment they can find because they are well aware, that although they may not take orders from Iran, they are still very much anti-Israel (and some have already stated such) and will very likely point it at Israel given the chance.

Some thoughts from ISW on how this is affecting the Russians.  One has to wonder how much "gold" Assad got out of there with:

The rapid collapse of the Assad regime in Syria – a regime that the Kremlin helped prop up since 2015 – is a strategic political defeat for Moscow and has thrown the Kremlin into a crisis as it seeks to retain its strategic military basing in Syria. Russia intervened on behalf of former Syrian President Bashar al Assad in 2015 in order to secure Assad's regime after mass protests began in 2011 as part of the larger Arab Spring movement, which triggered the Syrian Civil War and threatened to oust Assad.[1] Russian President Vladimir Putin has long viewed the "color revolutions" that ushered in new democratic governments in former Soviet states as a threat to his own regime's stability and security.[2] Putin has also more widely opposed democratic movements to oust Kremlin-allied authoritarian rulers worldwide as he views these movements as hindering his efforts to create his envisioned multipolar world where Russia and Russia's key authoritarian allies and partners play a major role.[3] Russia's inability or decision to not reinforce Assad's regime as the Syrian opposition offensive made rapid gains throughout the country will also hurt Russia's credibility as a reliable and effective security partner throughout the world, which will in turn negatively affect Putin's ability to garner support throughout the world for his desired multipolar world.

Kremlin newswire TASS reported on December 8 that a Kremlin source stated that Assad and his family fled to Moscow and that Russian authorities granted them asylum.[4] Putin has been able to ensure the survivability of Assad himself, but Putin intervened in the Syrian Civil War with the primary objective of bolstering Assad's regime and preventing his loss of power – an objective that the Kremlin has failed to achieve. Putin also intervened on behalf of Assad in 2015 to secure Russian military bases in Syria, support Russia's wider efforts to project power in the Mediterranean and Red Seas, increase its global footprint in the Middle East and Africa, and threaten NATO's southern flank. Russia is attempting to secure its bases in Syria as opposition forces come to power, but Russia's continued military presence in the country is not guaranteed, especially as Russia's actions in support of Assad over the past nine years have likely undermined Moscow's ability to form a lasting, positive relationship with ruling Syrian opposition groups.[5]

The Kremlin reportedly secured an agreement on December 8 with unspecified Syrian opposition leaders to ensure the security of Russian military bases in Syria, but the contours of this arrangement and its longevity remain unclear given the volatile and rapidly evolving political situation on the ground in Syria.

ISW has collected strong indicators that Russia has been setting conditions to evacuate its military assets from Syria and that Russian military basing is not secure. 

Even if Russia maintains some or all of its bases in Syria, it is a major geopolitical loss for Moscow, as Russia’s continued basing in Syria will be at the mercy of Syrian opposition groups that the Kremlin previously used to call terrorists.

The loss of Russian bases in Syria will have major implications for Russia’s global military footprint and ability to operate in Africa. 

CrustyRedXpress
CrustyRedXpress Dork
12/9/24 7:19 p.m.

Fingers crossed!

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
12/9/24 10:24 p.m.

Burn!  Remember, Putin LOVES the navy... he's a little sailor boy at heart.

The situation in the Donetsk area continues to slowly develop.  Porkrovsk is clearly a major objective.  Not sure why that rather obvious pocket to the south has not collapsed(!)

I was going to post that it was reported that the Russian recently boosted it's defense spending 25%.  It's now 6.3% of GDP.

 

The race to the bottom continues.  Who will break first?!  You HAVE to think this cannot go on that much longer, right?  Predicting the collapse of Russia has certainly been a loosing game so far.

 

Russia continues to face staggering costs required to maintain its war effort against Ukraine, with mounting economic strain, labor shortages, and systemic corruption threatening the sustainability of the Russian defense industrial base (DIB). US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reported on December 7 that Russia has spent over $200 billion on its war in Ukraine and suffered at least 700,000 casualties since February 2022, with recent losses averaging 1,000 soldiers per day.[13] The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation reported on December 9 that Russia's liquid assets in its National Welfare Fund dropped from $140 billion in February 2022 to $53.8 billion by December 1, 2024.[14] The Center noted that Russia increasingly relies on Chinese yuan reserves and gold sales to cover its budget deficit and is committing a third of its national budget for 2025-2027 to defense spending, indicating an unsustainable prioritization of the war at the expense of economic stability.[15] Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov claimed on December 9 that corruption crimes, including bribery, increased by nearly 30 percent in 2024 over 2023, with Russian authorities having disciplined over 30,000 Russian officials for corruption violations in 2024.[16] Russia's mounting economic pressures stemming from the war, paired with widespread corruption, labor shortages, and inefficiencies in Russia's DIB, will likely compound the cost of Russia's war and further undermine its ability to effectively sustain DIB operations while maintaining economic stability. ISW has previously observed reports of similar trends and statistics in the Russian economy, indicating that Russia's economic trajectory is unsustainable in the mid- to long-term and will increasingly strain its capacity to wage war against Ukraine.[17]

DarkMonohue
DarkMonohue SuperDork
12/9/24 11:36 p.m.
aircooled said:

Predicting the collapse of Russia has certainly been a loosing game so far.

And yet it's absolutely irresistible. Perun's latest analysis forecasts a serious shortage of several kinds of equipment in either 2025 or '26. We shall see.

 

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) PowerDork
12/10/24 1:20 a.m.
aircooled said:

 

The situation in the Donetsk area continues to slowly develop.  Porkrovsk is clearly a major objective.  Not sure why that rather obvious pocket to the south has not collapsed(!)

I have no idea why or how that pocket still exists.  Last I heard reported there was 1km between those pinchers.

However, and it is way too early to say "this is it!",  I'm noticing small amounts of tactical Ukrainian gains lately.  Nothing I'd write home about, but there are a couple gray pockets that have turned green and I'm watching with interest.  The lack of pincher movement might be related.

CrustyRedXpress
CrustyRedXpress Dork
12/10/24 12:38 p.m.
aircooled said:

The race to the bottom continues.  Who will break first?!  You HAVE to think this cannot go on that much longer, right?  Predicting the collapse of Russia has certainly been a loosing game so far.

Things continue until they don't, and to some extent we're all inductivist turkeys. 

Reading up on Russia's recent history of financial crisis is a good reminder that their borders change or currency implodes every decade or so.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_financial_crisis

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
12/11/24 2:40 p.m.

Marinka, Donestsk region.

This town is (was) just over the, previous to invasion, lines, just outside of Donetsk city.  So, not nearly as much fighting was done here as some other towns.

Kreb (Forum Supporter)
Kreb (Forum Supporter) PowerDork
12/11/24 3:11 p.m.

Regardless of the ultimate outcome of the war, lots of people who grew up in farmhouses in cute little towns are going to end up in temporary housing and anonymous apartment buildings.  

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
12/12/24 2:42 p.m.

An interesting info graphic on the Russians big push currently:

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH MegaDork
12/15/24 7:01 p.m.

Somewhat related, this travel youtuber almost became the next Brittney Griner...one of the crimes he was charged with was calling the "special military operation" an invasion in a video description, but it seems that the FSB also suspected that he could be a spy or a drug smuggler. Apparently something similar happened back in 2022. Pt1:
 


Pt2:

 

FJ40Jim
FJ40Jim Reader
12/15/24 7:35 p.m.

In reply to GameboyRMH :

FAFO, dumbass.

​​​​​​

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
12/16/24 12:40 p.m.

Some stuff:

Looks like the Russians are rapidly evacuating from Syria, so maybe no new agreement for a base (they did make a deal to keep the base from being attacked).

Russians still attacking power infrastructure.  I am sure it's horrible for the citizens, but I still don't think this will be a huge motivation to hand their country over to Russia.  Heck, there is apparently a program in Ukraine to create prothesis and training for people with amputations from combat to allow them to get back into the fight.  This is not the behavior of a people who are unwilling to fight for their country!

Looks like the North Koreans have joined the fight, and....  welcome to Ukraine boys....

The pocket mentioned previously has collapsed.  We can hope there were not a lot of Ukrainians still there:

.

Also of note is the Russian are trying a different angle in the Kursk area and are clearly trying to get back Sudzha.  They made some progress, but appear to have stopped.

Mr_Asa
Mr_Asa MegaDork
12/16/24 12:57 p.m.

Multiple reports of friendly fire from Best Koreans towards Russians.  Language barriers seem to be the common denominator 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
12/17/24 5:37 p.m.

- Two Russian tankers where destroyed... by weather near the Kerch straight.  One actually broke in half.  The Russians are not exactly safety first when it comes to these things, so not terribly surprising.  Based on their current holdings, the oil will only affect Russian land.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8dq6q0m862o

 

- The Russians really don't want anyone to know there are North Koreans fighting (they are apparently putting them in units with Asian ethnicity Russian soldiers), so when they get killed (which a bunch recently did), they hide their faces... with flamethrowers. This will be interesting to explain when (or if) they return the bodies.

https://www.rfa.org/english/korea/2024/12/17/north-korean-soldier-video-russia-12172024/

 

- A Russian general was blown up in Moscow.  Not sure why, or by who (the Ukrainians did just recently put a warrant on him of something).

- A Ukrainian commander was arrested.  He was torturing his own men to get money out of them.  He also made them do labor for him (build him a house).  He was not charged for the torture part for some reason.

- There is concern that Turkey may invade Syria.  While Russians continue to get out.

NOHOME
NOHOME MegaDork
12/17/24 5:44 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

I believe a third oil carrier sprung a leak today. My understanding is that these ships were meant to navigate in quiet river waters and not open water.

bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter)
bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) UberDork
12/18/24 9:23 a.m.

I wonder if the HTS might make a deal with Russia to keep a limited presence in the country in return for Assad being handed back over......

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) PowerDork
12/19/24 1:35 a.m.

Regarding that russian general:

There appear to be a few more "high value" people "offed" in possibly non-russian ways that I was unaware of...

 

Whether or not Kursk works out in the long term, it DOES look like Ukraine was able to make good use of the chaos that was just inside the russian border to inject some people with the right training and equipment 😎

 

 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
12/19/24 12:19 p.m.

The Russians claim to have captured the killer of the general:

The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) announced on December 18 that Russian authorities detained the suspect who planted the improvised explosive device (IED) that killed Russian Nuclear, Biological, Chemical Defense Forces (NBC) Head Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov and his aide, Major Ilya Polikarpov, in Moscow on December 17.[12] The FSB claimed that the alleged perpetrator is a 29-year-old citizen of Uzbekistan who claimed that Ukrainian special services recruited him to place an IED planted in an electric scooter near Kirillov's residence in exchange for money and permission to live in the European Union.[13] The Uzbek Embassy in Moscow stated on December 18 that it is in contact with Russian law enforcement to clarify information about the alleged suspect.[14] ISW cannot independently confirm if the suspect was involved in Kirillov's and his assistant's death. Russian milbloggers seized on the suspect's Central Asian origins to call for harsher migration laws and restrictions against migrants.[15] Russian milbloggers' hyperfocus on the alleged perpetrator's ethnic origins highlights the polarizing debate over the role and treatment of migrants and ethnic minorities in Russian society, suggesting that the Kremlin is increasingly struggling to foster civic Russian nationalism and portray Russia as inclusive and harmonious multicultural country.

 

Ukraine winning economic war against Russia – The Economist

...The National Bank of Ukraine projects GDP growth of 4% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025. The currency remains stable and the interest rate of 13.5% is the lowest in 30 months.

In contrast, in Russia, interest rates may soon rise to 23% to curb the rouble's decline. Banks are in a fragile state and GDP growth is projected to be just 0.5-1.5% in 2025....

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/ukraine-winning-economic-war-against-russia-the-economist/ar-AA1wa7aO

 

You have to wonder how they present this to the families of the dead and wounded.  Not that the great leader really cares, but I suspect it is something along the line of "they were fighting the great satan", which of course is, the US.

North Korean troops suffer 100 deaths, struggling in drone warfare, South Korea says

...At least 100 North Korean troops deployed to Russia have been killed with another 1,000 injured in combat against Ukrainian forces in intense fighting in the Kursk region, a South Korean lawmaker said on Thursday citing the country's spy agency.

The heavy losses are attributed to the lack of experience by North Korean troops in drone warfare and unfamiliarity with the open terrain where they are taking part in the battle, a member of parliament Lee Seong-kweun told reporters....

...More than 10,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to help Russia in the war, according to U.S. and South Korean officials. Pyongyang has also shipped more than 10,000 containers of artillery rounds, anti-tank rockets as well as mechanised howitzers and rocket launchers...

https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korea-says-its-alliance-with-russia-very-effective-no-mention-troop-losses-2024-12-18/

Driven5
Driven5 PowerDork
12/19/24 2:10 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

Sounds like the house work and abuse/extortion aren't actually the same people, so there may still be more to come on the latter. Also sounds like an unusual amount of nepotism in that (non-combat) brigade. One can only speculate how much of this all has to do with securing and maintaining those non-combat roles.

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-brigade-commander-arrested-over-alleged-power-abuse-after-journalists-investigation/

02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
12/20/24 1:41 p.m.

This just popped up on my radar, so I have not had a chance to read the full document yet, but just the preface suggests it will be very interesting. The document in question is a State Department telegram sent by Wayne Merry, head of the Political Internal Section at the US Embassy in Moscow, on 28 March 1994, entitled "Whose Russia Is It Anyway? Toward a Policy of Benign Respect”. It was highly controversial then - so much so that it was rejected for full distribution and had to go through the Dissent Channel to a far smaller audience, and was only finally declassified 30 years later due to a FOIA lawsuit - but seems to have been quite prescient when one looks at events in Russia over the past three decades.

stroker
stroker PowerDork
12/20/24 3:35 p.m.
02Pilot said:

This just popped up on my radar, so I have not had a chance to read the full document yet, but just the preface suggests it will be very interesting. The document in question is a State Department telegram sent by Wayne Merry, head of the Political Internal Section at the US Embassy in Moscow, on 28 March 1994, entitled "Whose Russia Is It Anyway? Toward a Policy of Benign Respect”. It was highly controversial then - so much so that it was rejected for full distribution and had to go through the Dissent Channel to a far smaller audience, and was only finally declassified 30 years later due to a FOIA lawsuit - but seems to have been quite prescient when one looks at events in Russia over the past three decades.

isn't it funny how obvious things are when they're viewed in the rear-view mirror...?

Floating Doc (Forum Supporter)
Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
12/20/24 7:40 p.m.
stroker said:
02Pilot said:

This just popped up on my radar, so I have not had a chance to read the full document yet, but just the preface suggests it will be very interesting. The document in question is a State Department telegram sent by Wayne Merry, head of the Political Internal Section at the US Embassy in Moscow, on 28 March 1994, entitled "Whose Russia Is It Anyway? Toward a Policy of Benign Respect”. It was highly controversial then - so much so that it was rejected for full distribution and had to go through the Dissent Channel to a far smaller audience, and was only finally declassified 30 years later due to a FOIA lawsuit - but seems to have been quite prescient when one looks at events in Russia over the past three decades.

isn't it funny how obvious things are when they're viewed in the rear-view mirror...?

On radiology rotation we called it the Retrospectoscope.

 

AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter)
AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter) UltraDork
12/21/24 11:02 a.m.
Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) said:
stroker said:
02Pilot said:

This just popped up on my radar, so I have not had a chance to read the full document yet, but just the preface suggests it will be very interesting. The document in question is a State Department telegram sent by Wayne Merry, head of the Political Internal Section at the US Embassy in Moscow, on 28 March 1994, entitled "Whose Russia Is It Anyway? Toward a Policy of Benign Respect”. It was highly controversial then - so much so that it was rejected for full distribution and had to go through the Dissent Channel to a far smaller audience, and was only finally declassified 30 years later due to a FOIA lawsuit - but seems to have been quite prescient when one looks at events in Russia over the past three decades.

isn't it funny how obvious things are when they're viewed in the rear-view mirror...?

On radiology rotation we called it the Retrospectoscope.

There's always an agenda. When data cannot be shaped to fit the agenda, it is set aside while further study is ordered.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
12/22/24 1:08 p.m.

Ukraine strikes Kazan with multiple drones.  I am not sure what they were aiming at, but there are videos of drones hitting high rise buildings.  It seemed pretty clear in at least one case (hitting a spire on top of the building), the building was not the target, but a obstacle to the low flying drone.  It's likely they were targeting the airbase that is northeast of the downtown area and appears to be a base for Tu-22 and Tu-160's.   Maybe the most notable fact though is where it is, and how far it is from Ukraine:

 

Also of note is a first:

---

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted their first attack solely using unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) and first-person view (FPV) drones, highlighting Ukraine's ongoing efforts to leverage technological innovation into ground operations. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kharkiv direction reported on December 20 that Ukrainian forces conducted their first ground attack exclusively using robotic systems instead of infantry on an unspecified date near Lyptsi (north of Kharkiv City) and successfully destroyed unspecified Russian positions during the attack.[5] The spokesperson stated that Ukrainian forces conducted the attack with dozens of UGVs equipped with machine guns and also used the UGVs to lay and clear mines in unspecified positions in the area. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly highlighted Ukraine's efforts to utilize technological innovations and asymmetric strike capabilities to offset Ukraine's manpower limitations in contrast with Russia's willingness to accept unsustainable casualty rates for marginal territorial gains.[6]

Ukraine also continues to innovate aerial drone production. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian officials completed tests of a drone attached to fiber optic cables that will be more resistant to electronic warfare (EW) interference.[7] Russian forces have recently fielded such drones in Kursk Oblast and Ukraine.[8] A Ukrainian drone company reported that it recently assembled a prototype of the first FPV drone made exclusively from components manufactured in Ukraine.[9]

 

Here is a pic (!):

You'll need to log in to post.

Our Preferred Partners
R2FZ6I1IIceR1DR6uKQ1fcVnhhul3VPm9btEf5xzOhr2KWqePN0k5QnmS09EQb2J