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Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) PowerDork
12/9/24 6:30 a.m.

 

Not sure if it's been touched on, but I didn't see it on the last three pages.  In addition to russian influence in Syria and the success of the Kurds, Georgia (country) is on day 9 of protests after the gov (seen as Kremlin inspired, IIRC) walked back talks with the EU:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/3/georgia-protests-whats-behind-them-and-whats-next

 

Citation for photo:  https://apnews.com/article/georgia-protest-opposition-police-violence-russia-tbilisi-6c7bf69d66c468c5833d97a60ba3461b

And a pro-russian candidate in Romania is now having their first-round election results annulled after it was found that russia had coordinated the campaign to boost the far-right candidate.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/6/romanias-top-court-annuls-results-of-presidential-elections-first-round

I'm beginning to think that having a former KGB agent as the leader of a global super-power may have had some outside ramifications... and perhaps that said leader may have funded and pushed slow burning propaganda campaigns that are now starting to show signs of smoke.

 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
12/9/24 1:26 p.m.

I think I mentioned it briefly here.  One of the issues is if I mention Georgia, most will think peaches (for the US state, in case you are not familiar).

The good news(!) is that Russia now has a spare brutal dictator they can put in place there to take care of those pesky citizens!

The Israelis are also taking advantage of the Syrian situation by blowing the hell out of any military equipment they can find because they are well aware, that although they may not take orders from Iran, they are still very much anti-Israel (and some have already stated such) and will very likely point it at Israel given the chance.

Some thoughts from ISW on how this is affecting the Russians.  One has to wonder how much "gold" Assad got out of there with:

The rapid collapse of the Assad regime in Syria – a regime that the Kremlin helped prop up since 2015 – is a strategic political defeat for Moscow and has thrown the Kremlin into a crisis as it seeks to retain its strategic military basing in Syria. Russia intervened on behalf of former Syrian President Bashar al Assad in 2015 in order to secure Assad's regime after mass protests began in 2011 as part of the larger Arab Spring movement, which triggered the Syrian Civil War and threatened to oust Assad.[1] Russian President Vladimir Putin has long viewed the "color revolutions" that ushered in new democratic governments in former Soviet states as a threat to his own regime's stability and security.[2] Putin has also more widely opposed democratic movements to oust Kremlin-allied authoritarian rulers worldwide as he views these movements as hindering his efforts to create his envisioned multipolar world where Russia and Russia's key authoritarian allies and partners play a major role.[3] Russia's inability or decision to not reinforce Assad's regime as the Syrian opposition offensive made rapid gains throughout the country will also hurt Russia's credibility as a reliable and effective security partner throughout the world, which will in turn negatively affect Putin's ability to garner support throughout the world for his desired multipolar world.

Kremlin newswire TASS reported on December 8 that a Kremlin source stated that Assad and his family fled to Moscow and that Russian authorities granted them asylum.[4] Putin has been able to ensure the survivability of Assad himself, but Putin intervened in the Syrian Civil War with the primary objective of bolstering Assad's regime and preventing his loss of power – an objective that the Kremlin has failed to achieve. Putin also intervened on behalf of Assad in 2015 to secure Russian military bases in Syria, support Russia's wider efforts to project power in the Mediterranean and Red Seas, increase its global footprint in the Middle East and Africa, and threaten NATO's southern flank. Russia is attempting to secure its bases in Syria as opposition forces come to power, but Russia's continued military presence in the country is not guaranteed, especially as Russia's actions in support of Assad over the past nine years have likely undermined Moscow's ability to form a lasting, positive relationship with ruling Syrian opposition groups.[5]

The Kremlin reportedly secured an agreement on December 8 with unspecified Syrian opposition leaders to ensure the security of Russian military bases in Syria, but the contours of this arrangement and its longevity remain unclear given the volatile and rapidly evolving political situation on the ground in Syria.

ISW has collected strong indicators that Russia has been setting conditions to evacuate its military assets from Syria and that Russian military basing is not secure. 

Even if Russia maintains some or all of its bases in Syria, it is a major geopolitical loss for Moscow, as Russia’s continued basing in Syria will be at the mercy of Syrian opposition groups that the Kremlin previously used to call terrorists.

The loss of Russian bases in Syria will have major implications for Russia’s global military footprint and ability to operate in Africa. 

CrustyRedXpress
CrustyRedXpress Dork
12/9/24 7:19 p.m.

Fingers crossed!

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
12/9/24 10:24 p.m.

Burn!  Remember, Putin LOVES the navy... he's a little sailor boy at heart.

The situation in the Donetsk area continues to slowly develop.  Porkrovsk is clearly a major objective.  Not sure why that rather obvious pocket to the south has not collapsed(!)

I was going to post that it was reported that the Russian recently boosted it's defense spending 25%.  It's now 6.3% of GDP.

 

The race to the bottom continues.  Who will break first?!  You HAVE to think this cannot go on that much longer, right?  Predicting the collapse of Russia has certainly been a loosing game so far.

 

Russia continues to face staggering costs required to maintain its war effort against Ukraine, with mounting economic strain, labor shortages, and systemic corruption threatening the sustainability of the Russian defense industrial base (DIB). US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reported on December 7 that Russia has spent over $200 billion on its war in Ukraine and suffered at least 700,000 casualties since February 2022, with recent losses averaging 1,000 soldiers per day.[13] The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation reported on December 9 that Russia's liquid assets in its National Welfare Fund dropped from $140 billion in February 2022 to $53.8 billion by December 1, 2024.[14] The Center noted that Russia increasingly relies on Chinese yuan reserves and gold sales to cover its budget deficit and is committing a third of its national budget for 2025-2027 to defense spending, indicating an unsustainable prioritization of the war at the expense of economic stability.[15] Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov claimed on December 9 that corruption crimes, including bribery, increased by nearly 30 percent in 2024 over 2023, with Russian authorities having disciplined over 30,000 Russian officials for corruption violations in 2024.[16] Russia's mounting economic pressures stemming from the war, paired with widespread corruption, labor shortages, and inefficiencies in Russia's DIB, will likely compound the cost of Russia's war and further undermine its ability to effectively sustain DIB operations while maintaining economic stability. ISW has previously observed reports of similar trends and statistics in the Russian economy, indicating that Russia's economic trajectory is unsustainable in the mid- to long-term and will increasingly strain its capacity to wage war against Ukraine.[17]

DarkMonohue
DarkMonohue SuperDork
12/9/24 11:36 p.m.
aircooled said:

Predicting the collapse of Russia has certainly been a loosing game so far.

And yet it's absolutely irresistible. Perun's latest analysis forecasts a serious shortage of several kinds of equipment in either 2025 or '26. We shall see.

 

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) PowerDork
12/10/24 1:20 a.m.
aircooled said:

 

The situation in the Donetsk area continues to slowly develop.  Porkrovsk is clearly a major objective.  Not sure why that rather obvious pocket to the south has not collapsed(!)

I have no idea why or how that pocket still exists.  Last I heard reported there was 1km between those pinchers.

However, and it is way too early to say "this is it!",  I'm noticing small amounts of tactical Ukrainian gains lately.  Nothing I'd write home about, but there are a couple gray pockets that have turned green and I'm watching with interest.  The lack of pincher movement might be related.

CrustyRedXpress
CrustyRedXpress Dork
12/10/24 12:38 p.m.
aircooled said:

The race to the bottom continues.  Who will break first?!  You HAVE to think this cannot go on that much longer, right?  Predicting the collapse of Russia has certainly been a loosing game so far.

Things continue until they don't, and to some extent we're all inductivist turkeys. 

Reading up on Russia's recent history of financial crisis is a good reminder that their borders change or currency implodes every decade or so.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_financial_crisis

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
12/11/24 2:40 p.m.

Marinka, Donestsk region.

This town is (was) just over the, previous to invasion, lines, just outside of Donetsk city.  So, not nearly as much fighting was done here as some other towns.

Kreb (Forum Supporter)
Kreb (Forum Supporter) PowerDork
12/11/24 3:11 p.m.

Regardless of the ultimate outcome of the war, lots of people who grew up in farmhouses in cute little towns are going to end up in temporary housing and anonymous apartment buildings.  

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
12/12/24 2:42 p.m.

An interesting info graphic on the Russians big push currently:

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