captainawesome said:
In reply to BoxheadTim :
I have no desire to do any day trading and have heard nothing but great things about index funds. The only downside I've ever seen mentioned is if the market dips right when you are at the retirement age.
I think BoxheadTim did a good job in responding to this point so I'll just add a few of my thoughts.
First, the generally accepted term for this issue is "sequencing risk". Although it doesn't sound too scary, as a career statistician, I know it's arguably the single biggest threat to achieving your retirement objectives. Within limits, the sample size for initiating retirement is exactly ONE...it's a one-time discrete event in our lives and no amount of math can change that.
Additionally, as bad luck would have it our actual retirement periods, say 25ish years on average, place us close to the worst time horizon possible in term of predictability.
Things tend not to change radically in the short term (say 10 years) and macro economic mechanisms tend to regress us to the mean in the long term (say 40 years).
Essentially, sequencing risk in conjunction with how long we tend to live after retiring creates a statistical perfect storm of uncertainty.
If you look closely, you'll see the point being made in this chart where you can be relatively aggressive (high stock to bond percent allocation) in both the short term and the long term but the typical retirement period requires the most conservative allocation in order to hold risk constant.
FWIW, I'm 60 and my portfolio is 100% allocated to equities with about 92% of it being in various S&P 500 index funds.
I don't like target date funds as you're paying someone a fee to pick things that typically have their own fees (think Monty Python's SPAM song only with fees).
I don't have any bonds as they pretty much just break even with inflation and as BoxheadTim pointed out, they have failed to reduce portfolio Beta (variability) in recent years and I don't think that's an anomaly but rather the result of the Fed taking a more activist roll. However, I've been debt free since May of 2022 and I consider the 100% equity I have in my home to quasi serve as a bond position.
I have two daughters and my legacy plan effectively pushes my time horizon out to a point of good statistical confidence.
Basically, I consider my eventual death to be a trivial event and pull my planned draw rate down from the industry standard of 4.00% to 3.50%.
Here are some rough back of the napkin numbers for a 100% equity portfolio with an effectively infinite time horizon...
- 4.00% draw rate = 95% confidence that you'll die before you run out of money.
- 3.75% draw rate = 95% confidence that you'll die with the same amount of principle you had when you retired.
- 3.50% draw rate = 95% confidence that you'll die with the same amount of principle you had when you retired after adjusting for inflation.
Out of all the available options (buy some $hity annuities and/or buy some $hity bonds), I like living in a world that doesn't end when I do which logically takes me to a place where I always have a fairly aggressive portfolio that I always draw modestly from.