Just got the 12th bill since the array was installed - not counting that one month when we were spinning the meter backwards. So I plugged some numbers into a spreadsheet to see what comes out. But first, a followup.
The array is described on the first page of this thread. Basically, 16.4 kW and my utility gives me a credit equal to the retail cost of any electricity I overproduce - making the utility my battery. I can overproduce during the day and then take "my" electricity back at night. The array is 100% financed at 0.99% with no up-front cost. I do not plan to ever move again, so possible concerns about reselling don't come in to my calculations.
Since the array officially went online, we have only had two months where our consumption was higher than our production - this was expected during the winter due to the short days, afternoon shadows from the cliff to the south of us and the potential to have snow on the panels. On those months, we drew from our accumulated credits earned during the summer. We had expected to fall short in August due to AC use, but were very very slightly net positive. Like, $1.42 worth.
Anyhow, the numbers. The array went online sometime around Jan 1, 2022. It spun the dials backwards for a month or so before we got approval to be a production site, so my early 2022 bills were a little less than they should be. 2/22, for example, is $58 less than 2/21, which is the solar at work.
3/22-2/23 compared to 3/21-2/22:
$633.31 savings in total electricity cost. This includes the costs involved in the array and the fees from the utility - which only seem to apply if we're net negative for the month.
3/22-2/23 compared to 3/20-2/21:
$578.43 savings (this is the lockdown era for what's that worth. I didn't dig to see if there were changes in the cost of electricity, but we weren't driving the EV as much)
We also have $495.43 in accumulated credit towards future electricity use, and I expect we'll be net positive for production next month so this is as low as it will get. This can't be cashed out, so really only useful if we have a problem that takes the array offline for a couple of months. It does imply that we've saved more like $1100, but since it can't be cashed out that's not really true.
I am thinking about a small DIY battery setup, just enough to power up the array during outages and provide us with some power in case of an extended outage. Gotta do some math and some learnin' on that first. This is mostly because it's interesting, not because of a demonstrated need.
Would I do it again? Definitely. Over the past year, the array has kept more than $600 in my pocket. There was no up-front cost. It's true I have a long term loan but I'm going to be paying for electricity no matter what so I don't consider this a downside. Thanks to the EV, our fuel costs are also included in this no matter what gas prices do (or did last summer). As electricity costs go up, my costs will remain the same. So I know exactly what my total electricity bill will be for the next couple of decades. I've got enough headroom in the system to feed a second EV, so that's a nice bonus as well. And, of course, there's some satisfaction in knowing that it should help keep my beautiful area a little cleaner, as I'm pretty sure all the local power plants are coal.
The key to making it work is the deal with the utility. The fact that I live in one of the sunniest towns in the US helps as well. It's pretty much an ideal situation. If I didn't have the utility deal, it might have made sense to come up with a smaller installation that would spin the meter backwards just enough to offset my peak usage but never be net positive over the course of a month.