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JesseWolfe
JesseWolfe Reader
8/11/20 9:13 a.m.

House prices have barely gone up in my area, very rural Virginia.  My parents house closed this week, they settled on $825k when listed for $950k for a huge fixer upper in Northern VA suburbs. 

frenchyd
frenchyd PowerDork
8/11/20 9:14 a.m.
docwyte said:

House across the street from me sold in 1-2 days for I assume full asking or more.  What they listed it for my wife and I thought was a real reach.  It's the same model house as ours and does have a bedroom/bathroom in the basement we don't have but our house is much nicer inside. 

We bought our house in '08 and at this point it's appreciated almost 100%...

As others have pointed out tho, there's nowhere to go.  We don't want to leave this area and any other neighborhood we'd want to move to is even more expensive than our current one.  I like our neighborhood, so no plans to leave until my son is about out of the house.

My parents house in La Jolla has probably gone up 400% in value since they bought it in 1990.  That's too be expected in that area tho...

 

I'm surprised it's only 400%. LaJolla is one of those premium areas. San Diego has increased so dramatically it's rivaled San Francisco in appreciation 

bmw88rider (Forum Supporter)
bmw88rider (Forum Supporter) UltraDork
8/11/20 9:48 a.m.

Look at the interest rates and think how Americans purchase. Not by the cost but by the payment. Here is the median interest rates and points. 

http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.html

So look at the math here for a minute. 

2 years ago: interest rates were 4.50% to 4.75% for a normal mortgage so for a $300K mortgage that would be a $1565 P&I 

Today: Interest rates are at 3%. So for that same $1565 payment you can get a 371K mortgage. 

The consumer is paying nothing additional but the banks are earning less for the mortgage but the housing cost went up almost 24%. So it's actually easy to see a 30% price increase with the scarce inventory and some inflation. 

Rons
Rons Reader
8/11/20 10:14 a.m.
z31maniac said:

In reply to mainlandboy :

Vancouver for years has been dealing with foreign investors driving up prices, right?

Has the foreign buyers tax helped at all?

The reality is that only the high end properties have been effected. Places that were selling for  $15 million selling for 10 -12 million.  The homes where most of us live have been uneffected. House down the street from me had five offers in five days and sold over ask at 1.6 million. A house about two hundred feet from I sit right now just went on the market at 4.2 million ( it is a large lot with a new large house).

In other news we just bought a home in Qualicum Beach BC for 572,500 - 2,500 under a reduced asking price. A property we passed on 19,000 sq ft lot just dropped the ask price by 50,000.

logdog (Forum Supporter)
logdog (Forum Supporter) UberDork
8/11/20 10:51 a.m.

You guys made me curious.  According to Zillow our place has increased a whopping $1147 in 5 years. 

 

Im rich! laugh

 

Snowdoggie
Snowdoggie Reader
8/11/20 11:07 a.m.

A company called Invitation Homes owns a bunch of rentals in my neighborhood. They bought them back in 2008-2009 during the last crash. I don't think these houses will be for sale again. Big money going into Real Estate Investment Trusts is taking lots of houses off the market. Add to that the slowdown in construction because of a worker shortage due to Covid and many workers being forced back to Mexico and you have the perfect storm. 

Investors only want to build luxury homes and apartments on the high end of the market because there is less profit in cheap houses, especially with high land costs, high labor costs and high material costs. Now you have a shortage of housing the average Joe can afford and too many people paying out more than half their income in rent. Add layoffs, furloughs and cut the hours of those who are left and the misery increases. 

Hundreds of cars are lining up in Fair Park here in Dallas today to pick up boxes from the food bank. How many of those people have no money left for food after they pay their rent? People are hungry and angry. 

This will not end well. 

frenchyd
frenchyd PowerDork
8/11/20 11:35 a.m.
z31maniac said:
dj06482 said:

It's nuts here, as well. People are moving out of NYC/Westchester and heading up to CT. Three houses within 1/4 mile have sold in the past few months, all with multiple offers over asking. The first two sold for about 8% over asking, and the last I knew, the third was heading in that direction, as well. 
 

I think our local market is being driven from the ability for most people to work from home. We're on the fringes of what some consider a commutable distance to NYC, and people can get a lot more house for their money here. Taxes are also far higher across the border in NY state.

It'll be interesting to see where things go from here.

I wonder if the companies that have said "Sure we will do this permanently," end up taking it back when things calm down, and then a bunch of pissed off people have a LONG commute.

Our company has said we have no plans for that and the offices will be open again at some point. I think they reopened basically all the offices in China back in April.

With computers being able to monitor every key stroke, Banks, they have the money, remember?Have found as much as a 47% productivity increase. With an attending 27% lowered cost of doing business. Plus they are still maintaining those high offices that are nearly empty.  
 

Numbers like that are a God send to banks who traditionally work on razor thin margins.  The Bank my Wife works at went from forcing all employees to corporate hubs  including remote contract employees to,  "We'll be reopening in June-July-the fall some time- to We have no definite plans to reopen. 
 

Granted not all employees can work from home, but they are finding fiscal rewards in doing so with those who can.  

93EXCivic
93EXCivic MegaDork
8/11/20 11:48 a.m.

My Zillow estimate has gone up $81k in 5 years (~32%). Property tax value has gone up $30k in 5 years (~12%). And I am just doing a refi that valued the house at going up $95k (38%). Honestly given what I have been seeing houses selling in my neighborhood selling at even into last year I can't imagine selling for less then the refi value.

 

It doesn't really matter to me tbh. I have zero intention of ever moving.

frenchyd
frenchyd PowerDork
8/11/20 11:53 a.m.
Snowdoggie said:

A company called Invitation Homes owns a bunch of rentals in my neighborhood. They bought them back in 2008-2009 during the last crash. I don't think these houses will be for sale again. Big money going into Real Estate Investment Trusts is taking lots of houses off the market. Add to that the slowdown in construction because of a worker shortage due to Covid and many workers being forced back to Mexico and you have the perfect storm. 

Investors only want to build luxury homes and apartments on the high end of the market because there is less profit in cheap houses, especially with high land costs, high labor costs and high material costs. Now you have a shortage of housing the average Joe can afford and too many people paying out more than half their income in rent. Add layoffs, furloughs and cut the hours of those who are left and the misery increases. 

Hundreds of cars are lining up in Fair Park here in Dallas today to pick up boxes from the food bank. How many of those people have no money left for food after they pay their rent? People are hungry and angry. 

This will not end well. 

Actually there are massive labor savings with new technology. But it requires significant investment.  I started selling Telehandlers ( Lull, Caterpillar, Gehl, Ingersol Rand)  because the potential labor savings paid for their purchase in less than 2 years .
Shortly after that they started building wall assemblies in factories and trucking to site.  Labor savings there are able to return the cost in less than a year.  

The newest trend is semi finished wall assembled with outside paneled,   window rough openings, wiring and plumbing( the advantage of Pex) and forced air in place. 
 

Yes I still see laborers humping lumber around and a lot of custom work by electricians and plumbers especially in more rural areas with cheaper work force.  But more and more I'm seeing semi finished wall assemblies trucked to sites and either telelandlers, cranes, or even tower cranes lifting them into place. 

ProDarwin
ProDarwin UltimaDork
8/11/20 12:01 p.m.

I checked zillow.  My est. value has gone up $48k in the 7 years since I bought.  I'm still not sure that was worth it though.

z31maniac
z31maniac MegaDork
8/11/20 12:09 p.m.
ProDarwin said:

I checked zillow.  My est. value has gone up $48k in the 7 years since I bought.  I'm still not sure that was worth it though.

In three years (well 3 on Sept.1) mine has gone up roughly 11%.

Which isn't a ton considering I spent well below the median house price in Oklahoma.

Snowdoggie
Snowdoggie Reader
8/11/20 12:24 p.m.
frenchyd said:
Snowdoggie said:

A company called Invitation Homes owns a bunch of rentals in my neighborhood. They bought them back in 2008-2009 during the last crash. I don't think these houses will be for sale again. Big money going into Real Estate Investment Trusts is taking lots of houses off the market. Add to that the slowdown in construction because of a worker shortage due to Covid and many workers being forced back to Mexico and you have the perfect storm. 

Investors only want to build luxury homes and apartments on the high end of the market because there is less profit in cheap houses, especially with high land costs, high labor costs and high material costs. Now you have a shortage of housing the average Joe can afford and too many people paying out more than half their income in rent. Add layoffs, furloughs and cut the hours of those who are left and the misery increases. 

Hundreds of cars are lining up in Fair Park here in Dallas today to pick up boxes from the food bank. How many of those people have no money left for food after they pay their rent? People are hungry and angry. 

This will not end well. 

Actually there are massive labor savings with new technology. But it requires significant investment.  I started selling Telehandlers ( Lull, Caterpillar, Gehl, Ingersol Rand)  because the potential labor savings paid for their purchase in less than 2 years .
Shortly after that they started building wall assemblies in factories and trucking to site.  Labor savings there are able to return the cost in less than a year.  

The newest trend is semi finished wall assembled with outside paneled,   window rough openings, wiring and plumbing( the advantage of Pex) and forced air in place. 
 

Yes I still see laborers humping lumber around and a lot of custom work by electricians and plumbers especially in more rural areas with cheaper work force.  But more and more I'm seeing semi finished wall assemblies trucked to sites and either telelandlers, cranes, or even tower cranes lifting them into place. 

That does sound interesting. Maybe commercial buildings are starting to be done that way but some cities are resistant in residential areas because pre-fabricated anything sounds too much like mobile homes. They are still doing it the old fashioned way where I live. I don't have a problem with it if it works and saves money. 

frenchyd
frenchyd PowerDork
8/11/20 12:48 p.m.

In reply to Snowdoggie : Finished it looks the same as any other stick built home. 

I've seen 2 big apartment complexes built that way.  A neighbor who's having a home built up on one of Northern Minnesota's 15,000 lakes is doing it too in the hopes of moving in by Christmas. 
Somehow justifying trucking almost 250 miles one way. 

z31maniac
z31maniac MegaDork
8/11/20 2:19 p.m.
frenchyd said:
z31maniac said:
dj06482 said:

It's nuts here, as well. People are moving out of NYC/Westchester and heading up to CT. Three houses within 1/4 mile have sold in the past few months, all with multiple offers over asking. The first two sold for about 8% over asking, and the last I knew, the third was heading in that direction, as well. 
 

I think our local market is being driven from the ability for most people to work from home. We're on the fringes of what some consider a commutable distance to NYC, and people can get a lot more house for their money here. Taxes are also far higher across the border in NY state.

It'll be interesting to see where things go from here.

I wonder if the companies that have said "Sure we will do this permanently," end up taking it back when things calm down, and then a bunch of pissed off people have a LONG commute.

Our company has said we have no plans for that and the offices will be open again at some point. I think they reopened basically all the offices in China back in April.

With computers being able to monitor every key stroke, Banks, they have the money, remember?Have found as much as a 47% productivity increase. With an attending 27% lowered cost of doing business. Plus they are still maintaining those high offices that are nearly empty.  
 

Numbers like that are a God send to banks who traditionally work on razor thin margins.  The Bank my Wife works at went from forcing all employees to corporate hubs  including remote contract employees to,  "We'll be reopening in June-July-the fall some time- to We have no definite plans to reopen. 
 

Granted not all employees can work from home, but they are finding fiscal rewards in doing so with those who can.  

According to Investopedia, the average net profit margin for retail and commercial banks in the US is 24%. Not exactly what I would call razor thin when you see profit margins in the low single-digit range for most manufacturing companies in the US. That's Apple level net profit margin.

Facebook is 41%, while Amazon is 6%.

 

 

mr2s2000elise
mr2s2000elise SuperDork
8/11/20 4:16 p.m.
thatsnowinnebago (Forum Supporter)
thatsnowinnebago (Forum Supporter) UltraDork
8/11/20 4:48 p.m.

The house we just bought last sold for $255k in 2009. We paid $465k. I'm sure the sellers are tickled pink with the housing market here in Portland. 

Greg Smith (Forum Supporter)
Greg Smith (Forum Supporter) Dork
8/11/20 4:56 p.m.
mr2s2000elise said:

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/uwm-announces-1-99-rate-for-30-year-fixed-mortgage/

Dang. We just went for a sub 2% refi earlier this year. but sub 1%? wow. 

z31maniac
z31maniac MegaDork
8/11/20 4:57 p.m.
mr2s2000elise said:

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/uwm-announces-1-99-rate-for-30-year-fixed-mortgage/

WOW!

Makes my 2.89% Refi seem high now! And that was the rate I got back in June.

mtn (Forum Supporter)
mtn (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
8/11/20 5:00 p.m.
Greg Smith (Forum Supporter) said:
mr2s2000elise said:

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/uwm-announces-1-99-rate-for-30-year-fixed-mortgage/

Dang. We just went for a sub 2% refi earlier this year. but sub 1%? wow. 

You read wrong - Sub 2% on a 30 year. Which is insane. 

We're about to sign on the dotted line for our FHA refinance at 2.35%. That means that we're paying MIP for eternity, but even so I didn't see us qualifying any other way due to other debts and loss of income since Covid hit, but we could definitely be refinancing again in a year. 

Snowdoggie
Snowdoggie Reader
8/11/20 5:13 p.m.

I refinanced at 3.4% a few years ago on a 10 year and I thought that was stoopid cheap. Sub 2%??

Oh well. This one will be paid off soon. I'm happy!

docwyte
docwyte UberDork
8/11/20 6:19 p.m.

In reply to frenchyd :

La Jolla is already a very expensive area, I suspect that keeps a certain cap on things.  The homes there don't go up 1000%...

STM317
STM317 UberDork
8/13/20 12:50 p.m.
mr2s2000elise said:

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/uwm-announces-1-99-rate-for-30-year-fixed-mortgage/

This obviously peaked my interest but there is of course a price to pay for that low rate. You're basically buying that lower rate with thousands more in closing costs. Maybe the extra closing costs are worth it, and maybe they aren't. Always do the math for your specific situation!

frenchyd
frenchyd PowerDork
8/13/20 12:57 p.m.
z31maniac said:
frenchyd said:
z31maniac said:
dj06482 said:

It's nuts here, as well. People are moving out of NYC/Westchester and heading up to CT. Three houses within 1/4 mile have sold in the past few months, all with multiple offers over asking. The first two sold for about 8% over asking, and the last I knew, the third was heading in that direction, as well. 
 

I think our local market is being driven from the ability for most people to work from home. We're on the fringes of what some consider a commutable distance to NYC, and people can get a lot more house for their money here. Taxes are also far higher across the border in NY state.

It'll be interesting to see where things go from here.

I wonder if the companies that have said "Sure we will do this permanently," end up taking it back when things calm down, and then a bunch of pissed off people have a LONG commute.

Our company has said we have no plans for that and the offices will be open again at some point. I think they reopened basically all the offices in China back in April.

With computers being able to monitor every key stroke, Banks, they have the money, remember?Have found as much as a 47% productivity increase. With an attending 27% lowered cost of doing business. Plus they are still maintaining those high offices that are nearly empty.  
 

Numbers like that are a God send to banks who traditionally work on razor thin margins.  The Bank my Wife works at went from forcing all employees to corporate hubs  including remote contract employees to,  "We'll be reopening in June-July-the fall some time- to We have no definite plans to reopen. 
 

Granted not all employees can work from home, but they are finding fiscal rewards in doing so with those who can.  

According to Investopedia, the average net profit margin for retail and commercial banks in the US is 24%. Not exactly what I would call razor thin when you see profit margins in the low single-digit range for most manufacturing companies in the US. That's Apple level net profit margin.

Facebook is 41%, while Amazon is 6%.

 

 

I do hope you understand margins and profit are two different things.Grocery stores work on thin margins but because of the volume  their profit can be very considerable. 

iansane (Forum Supporter)
iansane (Forum Supporter) Reader
8/13/20 1:09 p.m.

Damn, I didn't think my house value has gone up much, but it's something like 70k in the two years I've owned the place. Almost 40k just since Jan.

RX Reven'
RX Reven' SuperDork
8/13/20 1:42 p.m.

Taking the average between Zillow and Redfin, my home's value has increased 25.02% in the 10.5 years I've owned it.  That works out to just over 2% compounded appreciation which, depending on which metric you use, is a close match to the overall rate of inflation.  It's in a nice area (suburb just outside of Los Angeles county) so I'd have expected the appreciation to be significantly greater.  Whatever, two homes with my floor plan just went on the market on my street.  Mine is significantly nicer than both yet the guy with the nicer of the two is asking about 50K more than what the internet sez' mine is worth. 

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