The Next War

Yeah, I noticed that oo, but I dunno about the "satirical" aspect. English is not their primary language on Debka.com, and they freuqently screw up things like that or throw in rather strange phrases.

Dr. Hess wrote: Looks more and more like we'll just let the Israelies take out the Iranian nuke plants.

I thought that this has been our unspoken plan for the last 10 years??.... whats the holdup isreal, giterdun

So, how's ol' Iran doing these days? Well, depending on who you listen to, they are either about to nuke Israel or just really mis-understood peace-loving people of the pavement challenged region. Debka sez "Nukes any minute now." Pat Buchanan http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=124145 says they're just making nuclear power and The O is gonna bomb them to the stone age just before the November midterm elections for a big Democrat (the party of war, historically) election victory. Remember Uncle Bill did the same thing with his re-election campaign, although against a much weaker target.

Dr. Hess wrote: ...............The O is gonna bomb them to the stone age just before the November midterm elections for a big Democrat (the party of war, historically) election victory. Remember Uncle Bill did the same thing with his re-election campaign, although against a much weaker target.

The Prez is gonna have to veer towards the center on a lot more than defense if he hopes to accomplish a November surprise.

This was an interesting read: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,681525,00.html

MICHAEL RÜHLE said: Building a nuclear weapon has never been easier. NATO's Michael Rühle provides step-by-step instructions for going nuclear, from discretely collecting material to minimizing the fallout when caught. These simple steps have worked for the likes of Israel, Pakistan or North Korea, and your country could be next. Tired of being bossed around? Want your neighbors to treat you with more respect? Want to play in the majors? If so, you have to have your own nukes. Impossible? Not really. Granted, if your country is a signatory of the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), as most countries are, the constraints on your bomb building are considerable. Inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are difficult to circumvent. And the IAEA can no longer be fooled as easily as in the 1980s, when it failed to uncover Saddam Hussein's military nuclear program in Iraq despite regular inspections. The IAEA's increased awareness means that you have to be imaginative. Here are some steps to consider. First, begin developing a civilian nuclear program. Under the NPT, you are not only entitled to a civilian nuclear program, you may even ask for help from the IAEA. The IAEA will provide you with the basic ingredients and much of the know-how for a military program. Moreover, you can legally buy reactor fuel, and thus do not have to acquire it by performing hair-raising stunts like those the Israelis pulled in 1968, when they had to hijack a ship carrying uranium after France stopped its supplies. As you start building your civilian nuclear infrastructure, which should include nuclear plants to produce plutonium and/or uranium and appropriate nuclear research facilities, aim for the full fuel cycle: mining, milling, conversion, enrichment. This allows you the greatest possible independence -- which you may need later, once you are caught or go public. And let there be no mistake: You will get caught. But the notion of getting caught need not concern you at this stage. You will need to build research and nuclear enrichment facilities at several sites. Some will be publicly declared sites, i.e. they can be inspected by the IAEA. Other facilities, however, will remain secret, preferably underground or in mountainous areas (you did not forget to buy advanced drilling equipment, did you?). It is within these military facilities that enrichment of reactor-grade uranium to weapons-grade levels, as well as plutonium reprocessing will take place. If you are not too concerned about raising international suspicions, you can be so bold as to invest in other nuclear activities as well, such as nuclear submarine propulsion. Dubious? Yes. Illegal? No -- ask the Brazilians. Getting Off the Ground In order to run your secret military program, you need to buy a lot of stuff. Try to be discreet. Once you have raised suspicions, you will be put under international surveillance, and buying critical components will become much harder. Make sure you buy nuclear components from several sources so that you have backups in case one seller drops out. You will be less visible if you use intermediaries to buy certain things for you. In some cases, you may have to buy and then reverse engineer certain technologies. Others have done it in the past, so can you. Intrigued? Ask the Pakistanis. Too bad A. Q. Khan, the father of all nuclear smugglers, is no longer in business. He could have supplied you with everything you need to give the United States the finger: from centrifuges all the way to warhead designs. With Khan's help, Libya almost made it into the nuclear club. But along came the Bush administration and shut down the Khan franchise. As a consequence, buying all the necessary items will now take longer and will probably cost you more; but, with enough patience and money, you will still be able to get what you need. North Korea will help you, just as they offered to help Iran and Syria. You need nukes; they need hard currency -- a match made in heaven. If this direct approach is too risky for you, do not despair. Instead, help fund the nuclear program of another would-be nuclear power. In return, you may receive certain nuclear components -- or even warheads -- when you deem that the time has come for them to return the favor. For confirmation, ask the Saudis why they used to finance A. Q. Khan's laboratories. To be a credible nuclear power, you need appropriate systems to deliver your nuclear weapons. One method of delivery uses dual-capable carriers, such as aircraft and cruise missiles. They are not too difficult to purchase, but let us be honest: Ballistic missiles are the real thing. To obtain them, you do not have to work alone. If you designate your missile program as a "space launch" program, other states can legally support you, just like Russia is doing in Iran. And even when you have missiles that are obviously not intended for a space program, you can team up with other countries and share test results, as do North Korea and Iran. Sharing test results cuts development time and costs. When deciding on warhead design, you can play it safe and simply buy some older Chinese or Pakistani designs. These designs have been in circulation for quite some time, and are readily available on CD-ROM. Once you have built a nuclear weapon, you may want to test it. Of course, you could get around testing by choosing a weapons design that does not require testing, like the first U.S. nuclear bomb from 1945. If you want your weapon to be more sophisticated, however, you need to be creative. The old trick of staging a "peaceful nuclear explosion" will no longer suffice, since no one is going to believe that you need nukes to dig a canal or blow away a mountain. But with a bit of luck, you will find another nation that still conducts "real" tests and allows you to bring your scientists and your technical equipment along for the event. North Korea is a strong candidate, and has acquired a considerable amount of foreign currency that way. You can also try to have another nation test weapons on your behalf, as South Africa did for Israel, and China did for Pakistan. Or you can conduct a "cold test," without the fissile material. This gives you at least some reassurance that your warhead design will work in a pinch. Becoming a nuclear weapons power takes years, perhaps decades. So how should you behave internationally while secretly working on your nuclear program? As a general rule, keep a low profile, even at NPT Review Conferences. Of course, nothing is wrong with you joining in the ritualistic condemnation of the "double standards" of the Nuclear Weapons States, or with arguing for a nuclear free zone in your region. But you should leave the most vocal attacks to others. There are enough diplomats desperate to bask in their 15 minutes of fame by taking on the Nuclear Weapons States during the NPT Review Conferences. Rally the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) around your cause. Find a few anti-Western countries to front for you. Systematically demarche capitals of small countries whose diplomats try to inject some reason into NAM statements. Raise the topic of Israel. And if the UN Security Council should pass a non-binding resolution about global nuclear disarmament, try to keep a straight face and agree. Getting Caught: Control the Fallout You will get caught, either by a US spy satellite (as in the case of North Korea), a disgruntled defector (as in the case of Iraq), or even an indigenous human rights group (as in the case of Iran). So what should you do if you get caught? First and foremost, do not overreact. Deny. Should the evidence become too powerful, then, change tack. Create a distraction. Argue that the uranium particles found in your country were purposely scattered by a hostile nation. Challenge the credibility of the information provided to the IAEA. Bring up Israel again. Once these lame excuses have run out of steam, shift gear. Admit that you have indeed failed in certain cases to be as open as the NPT requires. Promise to cooperate with the IAEA from now on. But never admit that you are seeking anything beyond nuclear energy. If you are a Muslim country, you can also cite some arbitrary fatwas that argue that nuclear arms are incompatible with Islam. If none can be found, have one written by a clergyman. Most importantly, continue to insist on your "inalienable right" to peaceful nuclear energy. Since the NPT is not very precise, the international community may spend years trying to agree what to do with you. Claim the "nuclear powers" are trying to deny your nuclear rights and protect the political and economic benefits of monopolizing nuclear weapons and energy. Accuse the IAEA of bias. Raise Israel again. Once you have mastered the complete fuel cycle, you could, in principle, declare yourself a nuclear power. But since you want to become a true Nuclear Weapons State, you need to achieve weaponization. Should your program become the subject of international negotiations before it has reached that critical stage, the key will be to buy time. Offer concessions. Then take them back. Offer them again, etc., etc. The Security Council will seek to punish you, of course, but the rivalries in that body almost guarantee that no serious punishment will ever be set. If you have access to oil and gas, you are even better off; one or more P-5 members will need your natural resources so badly that they will protect you from severe international pressure. You can also count on the support of others. The IAEA, for example, will be divided into those who believe that a true watchdog should also bite, and those who feel that they must side with the underdog, i.e. with you. Many non-proliferation experts will take your side as well, writing thousands of pages arguing that you are innocent until proven guilty. Although by this point, buying more paraphernalia for your program on the international market may have become next to impossible, at this stage you should be able to run your program without outside help. Don't Blow It (Yet) Fortunately, time is on your side. Do not blow it by issuing extreme public statements, such as describing your neighboring countries as a cancer that needs to be eliminated. Maniacal outbursts do not go over well, even with the countries that sympathize with your cause. Also, never argue that you need nukes because your neighbors have them, as that would give away your true intentions. Instead, always claim that your conventional defense capabilities are sufficient. You will appear less suspicious, which is necessary to deter your nervous neighbors from preemptively knocking out your nuclear program. The last choice for you to make is whether to remain a "virtual" nuclear power or announce your arrival with a big bang, i.e. with a nuclear test that establishes your credentials as a Nuclear Weapons State. By this point, you will have spent billions of dollars and much political capital. You may have become an international outlaw, and if you do not control oil, your country may now be impoverished. A decline in relations with your neighbors is complemented by an increase in number of alliances against you. Does all this add up to a net gain? Well, perhaps not quite as good an outcome as you had initially hoped. But no one ever said that being a nuclear power is easy. MICHAEL RÜHLE is deputy head of the policy planning unit of the NATO Secretary General.

From: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3863920,00.html

Report: US shipping arms ahead of strike on Iran Scottish newspaper says US transferred ammunition containers with 'bunker-buster' bombs to Diego Garcia in Indian Ocean. Expert: They are gearing up totally for the destruction of Iran Ynet Published: 03.17.10, 08:50 / Israel News Hundreds of powerful US “bunker-buster” bombs are being shipped from California to the British island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean ahead of a possible attack on Iran, The Herald reported Wednesday. The Scottish newspaper said the American government signed a contract in January to transport 10 ammunition containers to the island. According to a cargo manifest from the US navy, this included 387 “Blu” bombs used for blasting hardened or underground structures, The Herald reported. The report quoted experts as saying that the bombs are being put in place for an assault on Iran’s nuclear facilities. According to the newspaper, although Diego Garcia is part of the British Indian Ocean Territory, it is used by the US as a military base under an agreement made in 1971. The report said Superior Maritime Services, a shipping company based in Florida, , will be paid $699,500 to transport many thousands of military items from Concord, California, to Diego Garcia. The cargo includes 195 smart, guided, Blu-110 bombs and 192 massive 2000lb Blu-117 bombs, said The Herald. Dan Plesch, director of the Center for International Studies and Diplomacy at the University of London and co-author of a recent study on US preparations for an attack on Iran was quoted by the Scottish newspaper as saying, “They are gearing up totally for the destruction of Iran. US bombers are ready today to destroy 10,000 targets in Iran in a few hours." According to Plesch, US President Barack Obama may decide that it would be better for the US to act instead of Israel. “The US is not publicizing the scale of these preparations to deter Iran, tending to make confrontation more likely,” he was quoted by The Herald as saying. “The US ... is using its forces as part of an overall strategy of shaping Iran’s actions.” According to The Herald, the British Ministry of Defense has said in the past that the US would need permission to use Diego Garcia for any attack. It has already been used for strikes against Iraq during the 1991 and 2003 Gulf wars. The report said about 50 British military staff are stationed on the island, with more than 3,200 US personnel. Part of the Chagos Archipelago, it lies about 1,000 miles from the southern coasts of India and Sri Lanka, well placed for missions to Iran.

I've been to Diego. We were there for a week. We had one oil spill, one colision and one beat up Marine. I think they were happy to see us go. It's "The Footprint of Freedom" as they call it there. It's an island shaped like a footprint. For some reason, Google Maps only has a kinda fuzzy cartoon picture of the place. Go figger, huh? Actually, it's a harbor without the island attached, a top secret Navy base and the staging ground/storage area fer phun and games. There's always plenty of aircraft there, big and small, and plenty of things that go boom, big and small, so I dunno if this is any different than normal. That is, if the US built a new weapon system like the BLU's, chances are they would put a bunch of them on Diego anyway, not just to put them there specifically to "fix" Iran.

Anyway, I thought The O was gonna "talk" with the insane clerics and smooth things over and we wouldn't have to bomb them back to 1950 (the stone age in that part of the world). So much for Hope and Change, I guess, huh? I wonder... Big military action just before the November election? Ra-Ra-Ra. U-S-A. I support the President in this Time of War. Vote D for War. Ra-Ra-Ra.

I would be more suspicious if there weren't already a rather large military theater near the Indian ocean. Bunker busters aren't likely to be the first wave of activity in Iran anyway. Afghanistan seems a more likely destination for these items.

I think the Diego Garcia permanent personnel are always glad to see the Yankees leave rather than arrive...I know they were eager for our detachment to move along.

Dr. Hess wrote: For some reason, Google Maps only has a kinda fuzzy cartoon picture of the place. Go figger, huh?

I was actually curious to go check out Google Maps and find this place, as I've never heard of it before.

Looks like you can see the whole island/base, and even be able to zoom in close enough to basically see people. Yes, you do get a "fuzzy cartoon picture" if you leave it on "map" rather than "satellite".

Anyways...

That's wierd, as I'm on Satellite and all I got is a fuzzy cartoon. Anything closer had Image Not Available. Now there's pictures there and you can zoom in to see the ships at anchor. I guess you fixed it. Your Google-Foo is strong.

Far as I know, there's only like 25 English on the island, and I think they are all Customs and Immigration. They were real shiny happy people when I was there. I figured that you had to really screw up bigtime to become a customs or immigration officer on Diego Garcia. Oh, and every time you got off the ship, took a launch and went to one of the 6 bars on the island, you had to pass through British Customs and Immigration (2 separate huts on the beach) like you just flew into Heathrow. And on the way back out again.

Yeah, Tom, Diego is the "we're gonna stockpile all this equipment" place for any adventures on that side of the world. So, like I said, if there's a new weapon system, it's probably going to be put there "just in case we need it" anyway. I really don't see putting bunker busters there as any big escalation. I do see the story released (as it must have been released, Scottish newspapers just don't happen across the contents and manifest of sealed containers on military chartered vessels) as a further ramp-up in The O's or Hillary's dealings with Iran, though. Like "hey, we got this many BLU's on the way to y0 crib, so y0 better hide y0 uranium centrifuges better -o- we gonna cap y0 azz."

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/03/26/south.korea.ship.sinking/index.html?eref=igoogle_cnn said: (CNN) -- A South Korean navy ship sank in the Yellow Sea near North Korea early Saturday, and the navy shot at an unidentified ship toward the north, according to reports quoting South Korean government officials. Yonhap News Agency quoted navy officials saying Friday that a ship carrying 104 crew members sank off the Seoul-controlled island of Baengnyeong in a flashpoint maritime border area between the Koreas. The 1,500-ton corvette Cheonan went down at 9:45 p.m. Friday near the island, but the cause of the incident was not immediately known, the officials said. A rescue operation was under way. There were no immediate reports of casualties, but some sort of explosion occurred in the rear of the ship, officials told Yonhap. The South Korean government issued a statement saying the reason for the incident remains unclear, but it wasn't ruling out some sort of military engagement. Yonhap quoted naval officials as saying a South Korean vessel fired at a ship toward the north later. However, South Korean government officials said it isn't certain whether North Korea was involved in the incident. Yonhap said local residents reported hearing gunfire for about 10 minutes. As a result of the incident, South Korean government officials held an emergency meeting of ministers handling security-related matters, officials told Yonhap. Aides to South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said the first priority is rescuing crew members, and the Defense Ministry said 58 members of the crew have been rescued. South Korea's Korean Broadcasting System said navy vessels and helicopters were rescuing crew members, some of whom reportedly jumped into the sea after the blast, the KBS report said. The official said the Sockcho, another South Korean navy vessel patrolling nearby, fired at unidentified ships north of the area. North Korea has said recently it is bulking up its defenses in response to recent joint South Korean-S. JKorenews agency also quoted South Korean military officials saying North Korea conducted dozens of artillery firing drills Friday.

It's perfectly normal for South Korean war ships to burst into flames and sink. Nothing to see here. Move along.

Yep, the Sockcho was welcoming visitors with an honorary fireworks display.

The DPRK and ROK always play together like that.

My friend, who did 2 years on the DMZ in the 90's, said he thought we were there to keep the South K's from invading the North.

The latest update has the ROK backing-off the claims of an attack. The suspicious "object" that received fire from the other S Korean ship was (possibly) a flock of birds.

Ooops!

Someone needs more radar training, or there were some VERY heated conversations between Seoul and DC.

yes, I'm sure the sonar recordings will verify the flock of birds...

From: http://www.debka.com/article/8665/

Debka said: Shortly after Vice President Joe Biden's Israel visit ended on March 11 in high dudgeon over the approval 1,600 new homes in East Jerusalem, US president Barack Obama ordered a consignment of Joint Direct Attack Munition- JDAM already on its way to Israel to be diverted to the US Air Force base on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia. This step, the pointer to a US arms embargo for preventing Israel attacking Iran's nuclear sites, is first revealed here by debkafile's military sources. US military sources describe the consignment as consisting of 387 JDAM kits for attachment to the warheads of 2,000-pound BLU-109/MK-84 or the 1,000-pound BLU-110/MK-83 bunker-busters for their conversion into smart bombs....

So that's more of the story on the Diego Garcia connection there. They were heading for Isreal and The O diverted them to Diego instead. I'm quite sure that's still not the whole story. The whole story probably is that The O needed them for his planned excursion into Iran and diverted them for that. I find it hard to believe that the Israelies don't have this kind of thing made locally. They have some pretty high tech stuff that they make. Like atomic weapons and drones, for example. The only problem I see is that those guidance system things all go off of the GPS satnavs, and the US, which controls it, can turn the whole network off or degrade accuracy anytime they feel like it and without notice. Didn't the whole satnav thing go down yesterday or the day before? I don't have a GPS, but I heard something on the news about it. So, if, say, Israel were to lob GPS guided boom-booms at Iran, the US could just turn the network off and that's it, the things fall wherever gravity takes them.

Ya'll know that the GPS stuff used to only be accurate to like 100 or 500 ft? I forget the exact number, but I think it was inbetween there. There was a random noise signal added to the position so you couldn't use it for spot on stuff. Then companies came out with correction factors that they broadcast on radio towers so you could take a GPS and sail into a channel strictly off the GPS with zero visibility, even though the sat signal wasn't clean enough for that. Since everyone was correcting it anyway, the Feds said, screw it, we'll just give out the accurate signal without the noise but retain the ability/give notice that we might scramble it anytime we want. I've wondered if having a GPS sitting on the desk would be a good indicator that "something is up" if you noted your desk's position and it changed a few hundred feet one day. They can probably do that selectively to different spots, so your desk in the US might not move, but your desk in Iran might suddenly be 1000' west of there shortly before physically becoming 1000' more verticle.

Debka is also reporting that the US (that would be us) fired a Trident nuclear-capable ballistic missile from a sub somewhere near or in Saudi Arabia to some unknown target on March 31 in a joint "exercise" with our good friends the Saudis. Of course, that would be a local shot to tag Iran from there.

In reply to Dr. Hess:

The good news is that Diego Garcia won't capsize from all the extra weight of that weaponry.

The bad news is that the Pres might be compelled to make a statement in a year or two, have the attempt fail and he still gets re-elected.

Now they're threatening us directly:

Debka said: Tehran: If Iran is attacked, nuclear devices will go off in American cities Iran threatens US with nuclear terrorThis warning, along with an announcement that Iran would join the world's nuclear club within a month, raised the pitch of Iranian anti-US rhetoric to a new high Tuesday, April 13, as 47 world leaders gathered in Washington for President Barack Obama's Nuclear Security Summit. The statement published by Kayhan said: "If the US strikes Iran with nuclear weapons, there are elements which will respond with nuclear blasts in the centers of America's main cities." For the first time, debkafile's military sources report, Tehran indicated the possibility of passing nuclear devices to terrorists capable of striking inside the United States. Without specifying whether those elements would be Iranian or others, Tehran aimed at the heart of the Nuclear Security Summit by threatening US cities with nuclear terror. debkafile's Iranians sources report that Tehran is playing brinkmanship to demonstrate that the Washington summit, from which Iran and North Korea were excluded, failed before it began, because terrorist elements capable of striking inside the US had already acquired nuclear devices for that purpose. Although Iran has yet to attain operational nuclear arms, our military sources believe it does possess the makings of primitive nuclear devices or "dirty bombs." In an interview ahead of the summit, President Obama warned: "If there was ever a detonation in New York City, or London, or Johannesburg, the ramifications... would be devastating." In another shot at the summit, Behzad Soltani, deputy director of Iran's Atomic Commission, announced Tuesday: "Iran will join the world nuclear club within a month in a bid to deter possible attacks on the country." He added: "No country would even think about attacking Iran once it is in the club." The Iranian official's boast was run by the Fars news agency, published by Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps. Behzadi further pointed to the construction of 360 MW nuclear power plant and a 40 MW research reactor in Iran's central city of Arak, claiming the projects were 70 percent complete. This plant is generally believed to have been built to enable Iran to produce weapons-grade plutonium as an alternative weapons fuel to highly-enriched uranium and material for radioactive weapons. Sunday, April 11, debkafile reported that Iran is making much better progress than Western and Israeli intelligence estimates have held toward completing the Arak heavy water reactor. Click here Along with the strides made in its nuclear manufacturing capacity, Tehran's anti-US rhetoric has grown more strident in the past week. Thursday, April 8, Iran's Armed Forces Chief of Staff Maj.Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi said if the United States made any military moves on the Islamic Republic "none of the American troops in the region would go back home alive." debkafile's military sources report the presence of app. 220,000 US soldiers in the countries around Iran, including Gulf bases and waters, Iraq and Afghanistan. The Iranian general was reacting to US defense secretary Robert Gates' warning that Washington's policy decision to limit the use of nuclear arms if attacked did not apply to Iran and North Korea.

So, y'all living in "major cities," (unlike us out here in bumfuq,) should you be concerned with Iran giving nukes to the other pavement challenged? What has The O done about this? I'm so glad that everyone loves us now that he's president, just like the News Media promised us.

Maybe if we get the right teleprompter up he can talk them out of it.

Anyway, I think it's all bluff. I think that anytime a concentration of gamma emitters moves a group of stocky young men with Submariner watches and Navy tattoos pops out of nowhere to see what's happening and why it moved. That is just my completely unprofessional, unfounded opinion.

Dr. Hess wrote: So, y'all living in "major cities," (unlike us out here in bumfuq,) should you be concerned with Iran giving nukes to the other pavement challenged?

Well, to be on the safe side, I hope the "pavement challenged" have been following the news in recent years and realise Detroit is not a "major city" worthy of their evil attentions.

I'm looking forward to being able to pop corn without the hassel of a microwave.

WilD wrote:

Dr. Hess wrote: So, y'all living in "major cities," (unlike us out here in bumfuq,) should you be concerned with Iran giving nukes to the other pavement challenged?

Well, to be on the safe side, I hope the "pavement challenged" have been following the news in recent years and realise Detroit is not a "major city" worthy of their evil attentions.

Not to be an a$$, but parts of Detroit already look like Chernobyl.

With the large Muslim population, you're safe - unless some jihadists REALLY want to show they don't care about collateral damage.

Well, if you do the analysis, the pavement challenged kill more of their own (Moslems) than others. So maybe Detroit isn't that safe. But yeah, I can see how it would be difficult to tell if they did nuke the place.

"Was it a nuke, or Urban Renewal?"

http://www.debka.com/article/8794/

Debka said: Obama starts massive US Air-Sea-Marine build-up opposite Iran DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 20, 2010, 2:20 PM (GMT+02:00) Debkafile's military sources report a decision by the Obama administration to boost US military strength in the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf regions in the short term with an extra air and naval strike forces and 6,000 Marine and sea combatants. Carrier Strike Group 10, headed by the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier, sails out of the US Navy base at Norfolk, Virginia Friday, May 21. On arrival, it will raise the number of US carriers off Iranian shores to two. Up until now, President Barack Obama kept just one aircraft carrier stationed off the coast of Iran, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Arabian Sea, in pursuit of his policy of diplomatic engagement with Tehran. For the first time, too, the US force opposite Iran will be joined by a German warship, the frigate FGS Hessen, operating under American command. It is also the first time that Obama, since taking office 14 months ago, is sending military reinforcements to the Persian Gulf. Our military sources have learned that the USS Truman is just the first element of the new buildup of US resources around Iran. It will take place over the next three months, reaching peak level in late July and early August. By then, the Pentagon plans to have at least 4 or 5 US aircraft carriers visible from Iranian shores. The USS Truman's accompanying Strike Group includes Carrier Air Wing Three (Battle Axe) - which has 7 squadrons - 4 of F/A-18 Super Hornet and F/A-18 Hornet bomber jets, as well as spy planes and early warning E-2 Hawkeyes that can operate in all weather conditions; the Electronic Attack Squadron 130 for disrupting enemy radar systems; and Squadron 7 of helicopters for anti-submarine combat (In its big naval exercise last week, Iran exhibited the Velayat 89 long-range missile for striking US aircraft carriers and Israel warships from Iranian submarines.) Another four US warships will be making their way to the region to join the USS Truman and its Strike Group. They are the guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy and guided missile destroyers USS Winston S. Churchill, USS Oscar Austin and USS Ross. debkafile's military sources disclose that the 6,000 Marines and sailors aboard the Truman Strike Group come from four months of extensive and thorough training to prepare them for anticipated missions in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean.

So, seeing as how offering that hand of friendship and an ear for listening is working out so well, The O is sending 4 or 5 carriers to park off of Iran. Haven't heard a peep of this out of our news media, but hey, how about that Dancing with the Stars? Anyway, on station in July. That's 4 months to election time. Are we going to get another aspirin factory bombed and a "stand of unity in time of war..." line of BS? I dunno. Hard to call. The R's are doing everything they can to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Meanwhile, Europe is in a meltdown. The Euro is death spiraling, taking our stock market with it. "The word on the street" is a split into a North Euro and a South Euro. The Europeans won't be too eager to fiddle with an Iranian strike by anyone (US, Israel, whoever) while they try really, really hard not to repeat the last century (which had "issues.") It does look like this time the rich are using banks and voluntary slavery (debt) instead of tanks and bombs. A counter strike was made yesterday with Germany trying to ban naked short selling of countries' national debt. It is all complicated, to say the least, but it is like this: You move into a new house that costs 100K. All your neighbors buy fire insurance on your house so that if it burns to the ground, they each get 100K. Then they sit around and watch you and encourage you to smoke in bed. Oh, and GS and The O are right in the middle of it. The world's bank, BIS (look it up), said a few days ago that the total of all the so-called debt swaps was 10 times the gross national products of the entire world put together, which means that if we have a 10% global economic burp, the whole world will be flat busted broke, except for the hedge funds who made these short bets. What, me worry?

So how does the whole North Korean sub sinking a South Korean ship episode last week factor into this?

Well, the NK's and the Iranians are working together on a nuclear tipped missle. The NK's have the know-how (maybe) and the m4D tyte skilz, y0 (maybe), and the Iranians have the petro dollars (which would be our gas money) to give to the NK's. Why the NK's would deliberately try to stir things up right now is not known. Maybe to take our eye off the Persian Gulf and pull some heat off of Iran. Certainly the NK's sinking a SK (aka "RoKers") ship might get the US to send a carrier or two off NK's shore instead of Iran's.

Remember the earlier analysis/leaks of the bunker buster bombs now sitting in Diego Garcia. That's like local to Iran for a B1B. Be back in time for dinner at the ExPat club.